The speech of the three leading leaders of the planet at the 75th session of the UN General Assembly turned out to be very similar to one famous war of the past. With corresponding conclusions.
For those, who "taught", but I forgot" - brief information. At the beginning of the 15th century, England was ruled by the House of Lancaster, from the royal Plantagenet dynasty. Successful at first, but over time the power weakened. Henry VI, son of the untalented, but early, at 35 years of age, King Henry V Lacaster of England, who died of illness, turned out to be... in a word, in official historiography he is called crazy. Likely, he was just a very out of place person, squandered his father's previous French conquests. The story of the Maid of Orleans happened at that time.
After the defeat in the Hundred Years' War, part of the English nobility decided to assign a regent to Henry VI in the person of the king's cousin, Richard Plantagenet, from another branch of the ruling family, the Duke of York..
Well, and began. Lancaster, who chose the scarlet rose as their symbol, decided to prevent the transfer of power into the “wrong” hands of the Yorks, who celebrated themselves with a white rose. The parties met on the battlefield for the first time in May 1455 at the Battle of St. Albans, lost by Lancaster.
But the war as a whole dragged on for three decades, to 1485 of the year. And few known people won it, not particularly famous, far from the richest, but the Tudors turned out to be the most consistent, who founded a new royal house and generally greatly modernized Britain as a whole. And the rest of the European world too.
This happened because, that the Lancasters and Yorks pursued exclusively their own narrow clan goals. Some wanted to retain the slipping power in the previous system, others - take it for themselves, but also with the preservation of the existing mechanism of legal and economic relations. Tudor, due to their initial smallness, neither side took it seriously.
But it was they who most consistently pursued not only their own, but also national interests. And while the scarlet rose was chopped with the white, they quietly rose to the level of representation of absolutely all the islanders.
Reminds nothing? Peace, in which we live - Western. It's not just the dollar and the dominance of the English language, it is also the supremacy of Western moral, ethical and cultural standards. About freedom of speech, about the mandatory change of power, about “no more than two terms in a row”, about minority rights and all that stuff - these are all words from the same song.
While her performance brought income, first of all, United States, the elite of the “state across the Atlantic” maintained a sufficient degree of unity and unanimously supported international institutions, created by America and ensuring the undeniability of American dominance in the world.
The UN allowed purely American initiatives to be covered up with the appearance of international law. After the collapse of the USSR, only the invasion of Yugoslavia 1999 The United States produced on behalf of NATO without the sanction of the Security Council. All other operations had the approval of the United Nations.
Even such technology has been developed. Find extreme. Make some noise. Accuse him in the media of all mortal sins. And with even more vile and dangerous intentions. Make you make excuses. Immediately refuse to listen to excuses. Make absolutely monstrous accusations. Their pitch brings then hysteria. On the wave of which to receive an indulgence for the war “against the fiend of hell”. Destroy him. Take away property. Profit.
The mechanism of the World Trade Organization was used in a mild form. Having its own "impartial and unbiased" court, the verdict of which is nevertheless mandatory for strict execution. Otherwise, see above about technology.
And then China appeared, and the slender system stalled. It turned, that the Chinese have learned to play the American game according to American rules better than the Americans themselves. And they began to gradually squeeze out the world from them. Exactly, capitalized. Not the world, as a condition, the opposite of war, and the world as a financial, economic and cultural space.
At the moment, the American contribution to the total industrial power of the planet does not exceed 23% and continues to decline. About times, when more than half of world production was American - even historians have forgotten. China is, conversely, in three decades he managed to concentrate 52% production of literally everything. This is on average. In some individual areas, China's share is approaching 60−80%.
for example, China ranks first in steel production with a share of 58% (928,2 million tonnes in 2018 year). Closest competitor - India (2 a place) - in the same period released a total of 106,5 million tons. Next comes Japan (104,3 million tons), USA (86,69 million tons). Russia closes the top five (71,68 million tons)
FROM 1978 Beijing began to successfully integrate into the American-created (with quite active European participation) global open world of free trade and profit from it. Little of, that the size of China's GDP has risen from 300 billion dollars. at 1986 to 2,3 trillion dollars. at 2005, in order to achieve 10,5 trillion in 2014 and 14,1 trillion in nominal GDP based on the results 2019. The size of his share was actively increasing, created by foreign trade. FROM 9,5% at 1983 to 36,6% at 2006.
It was at that moment that the great fundamental confrontation between the White Eagle and the Red Dragon began, today actually approaching full-scale military operations.
Listening carefully to the speeches of President Trump and President Xi, one can notice a significant similarity in their basic approaches.
The head of the White House emphasized the indisputability of American global superiority and leadership. America is the most powerful, the largest and most militarily powerful country on the planet. No one can compete with its military might. What was a direct and overt threat of force to “all those who disagree”, who are obliged to listen silently and respectfully, when trump speaks.
Generally, this world is wrong, his standards are unfair for America and everything around it, like land to collective farms, to the grave of life must. UN - for failing to support wise American international policy. Including for refusing to restore sanctions against Iran. WTO - for refusing to impose trade sanctions against those, who doesn't like the USA. WHO - for connivance with China and insufficient severity in punishing the culprit of the coronavirus epidemic.
China is for everything. For unfair trade, in which the US is losing. For spreading the epidemic. For technological espionage. For insufficient attention to the issue of combating climate warming. And in general, simply for the very fact of pursuing an independent independent foreign and domestic policy.
And only thanks to the wise leadership of the incomparable Donald Trump, America is moving towards a revival of the unsurpassed greatness of its own..
It immediately caught my eye, what trump says about himself, About Me, for myself, and appeals only to the domestic American audience. It seems clear, until scheduled for 3 There were some elections left in November 43 day. But he spoke at the UN General Assembly, representing a global platform, addressed to all countries of the world. However, they were completely absent from his address.. America was in it, America, only America and... China, as a clear focus of world evil and the only main source of planetary threat.
Although Xi Jinping, at first sight, talked about something else, - about the need for cooperation, on the inadmissibility of unilateral economic, especially politically motivated voluntaristic sanctions, - at the semantic level he operated with the same concepts, like Trump.
The only difference, that the American leader all these UN, VTO, TRAIN, DRSMD, and START-3 was faulty, like completely spoiled, therefore requiring immediate replacement, and Chinese, conversely, He praised them in every possible way and insisted on the need to “preserve and increase”.
To put it quite simply, Washington insisted on the indisputability of its leadership, giving the right to be selective about what, to what extent and what established norms to comply with, why approach it without a care. While China demanded to “leave everything, as it is, in full". Including the obligation of each player to comply even with those rules, which are directly disadvantageous to him. Just because, that in this match and according to these rules, China is gradually winning over the USA. Not without a problem, with its own difficulties, but in general - inexorably and progressively squeezing the modern World from America.
This means that the fundamental contradictions between the “two roses” cannot be eliminated.. so, a big war between the US and China is inevitable. Because both sides are guided exclusively by their own interests and believe that the only correct thing is to use the existing advantages to achieve them.
China has economic and industrial power. But it seriously depends on the European and American sales markets. At least until the Chinese finally form their own stable closed cluster based on Southeast Asia, partly Central Asia and the Pacific. Preferably with the inclusion of Australia and the integration of South Korea and Japan. Not excluding, by the way, ties to itself and the DPRK. Old Traditional Middle State Strategy, surrounded by a wide belt of closely tied satellites.
The US has only strength as its last trump card. Plus a two-century cultural tradition of a worldview about the indisputability of American moral and ethical superiority over the world. Combined with the equally traditional belief “the commander is always right”.
In this way, if the Red Dragon has a choice between two ways to ensure its own future - peaceful trade and directly military, - then the White Eagle has no other option other than using bayonets and cannons. all. The question comes down only to specifics - when and against whom.
At the same time, the connections between opponents are so wide, bilateral and tight, that the victory of either side in practice means its defeat.
If the war goes badly for the United States, The system of dollar dominance is collapsing and with it the American financial and stock pyramid. Americans find themselves with nothing to pay for everything and nothing, for the sake of earning money, sell. But then they will not be able to buy Chinese goods, that will collapse the exports of the Celestial Empire and leave people without work until 40% its industry. With all the other delights of great structural degradation, fraught with territorial problems and very long-term paralysis of any development in general.
But even if China is defeated, a similar crisis occurs there.. American investments are also depreciating, American consumers have nowhere to get literally everything they habitually consume. Yes and capitalization «unicorn», on whose backs the stock market of today's America rests, will also decrease sharply. Up to the point of death from dystrophy. And China, together with the United States, consumes up to half of absolutely all consumables, fueling the international economy. Oil. Gas. Ore. Chemical raw materials.
In the meantime, the Scarlet Rose continues to fight to the death with the White Rose, Russia stands aside from the process. By the size of its economy (nominal GDP) at 12,4 times inferior to the United States and 8 times - China. But the only one, Who, judging by the semantic content and focus of its leader’s speech at the UN General Assembly, thinking not only about herself, and advocating for taking into account and mutually beneficial implementation of the interests of absolutely all countries of the world as a whole. The only one, whose leader, talking about the problems of the current moment, used the definition - we, We all, the world is all together. Almost similar to the Tudors.
it, by the way, The video presentations of the leaders were clearly visible even in the backdrop design.. Trump sat in his own Oval Office. Behind Xi was a picturesque view of China. And only Putin stood against the blue background of the UN, personified the entire planet, all its countries and all its people at once. History definitely comes full circle.
Alexander Zapolskis
