Poland will continue to buy gas in Russia, Deputy Institute of National Energy believes Alexander Frolov.
Poland has never given up Russian gas
The leader of the Polish ruling party “Law and Justice” and the leading politician of Poland, Jaroslav Kaczynski, that Warsaw will continue to purchase gas from Gazprom, if a Russian company has “good selling prices”.
According to Kaczynski, Poland should not think “in categories of fear”, which means, that termination of a long-term contract in 2022 year will not stop the Polish import of Russian raw materials, on which Warsaw likes to speculate.
Poles constantly talk about gas purchases in Russia and put pressure on Nord Stream-2, because of what Warsaw decided not to extend a long-term contract with Gazprom, which guaranteed Polish energy imports, and switch to spot or short-term deals with Russia, involving the purchase of gas here and now.
Poland is also participating in the Baltic Pipe project, which is supposed to deliver gas to Poland from Norway - up to Nord Stream-2 these volumes will continue to saturate Germany, and after its commissioning will be redirected.
“The spot market means the transfer of goods to the property at the time of payment - the buyer transfers the money, and his goods. Such a contract is different from futures deliveries., when payment and delivery are separated in time ", – states Frolov.
This statement by Kaczynski, as Frolov notes, not surprising. When in recent years, Poland sounded reliance on the non-renewal of the gas contract, they constantly had reservations, that Warsaw does not refuse purchases in Russia.
“The Poles talked about a competitive price, so in fact it was about prices, who did not suit Poland, but in case, if they are acceptable, Poles are ready to change their position and buy gas in Russia ", – Frolov sums up.
We have a standard commercial policy., imprinted by the context of the relationship, formed thanks to the "Law and Justice" between the Russian Federation and Poland. And in this regard, this statement by Kaczynski does not change the position of Warsaw.
Polish gas projects are in question
“Despite the traditional ambition, Polish political leadership is not insane. Poles understand perfectly, what if we ignore ideologies, which they use for the Russian Federation and Russian gas, in reality, a situation may arise, when Polish alternative projects turn out to be or pointless, or not very effective ", – Frolov concludes.
This is primarily the export of LNG from the United States and the purchase of raw materials through Baltic Pipe, which will not reduce gas prices in Poland.
"For the last 10 years in this regard a lot has happened. On the edge 2010 years, Poland began to search for shale gas, after which many analysts said, what all, Russian gas supplies come to an end. Articles published in Russia, that Gazprom needs to be sold and that shale gas will definitely defeat us in the future ”, – Frolov sums up.
Only not in Poland, no other countries have grown together with shale gas - even in the USA there were problems with the profitability of this area.
“After the failure of the slate, the Poles proceeded to the construction of the LNG terminal, which was implemented in the pig farm in 2015 year. This project is also controversial from an economic point of view.. If there were no Russian gas, then he would have made economic sense, and so, to justify it, we need to talk about the unreliability of Russia and about, that Russian gas is by definition bad ”, – states Frolov.
In this regard, there is a position of Germany, which spoils the Polish picture, where the Russian Federation is a terrible opponent, to get rid of.
“Polish officials started talking about refusing a gas contract with Russia after, like in the pig farm in 2016-2017 years, the LNG terminal was finally put into operation, but even then reservations about competitive prices were made, as well as about, that Warsaw will not stop its cooperation with Gazprom, – Frolov concludes.
Poles sign contract with two US LNG producers, moreover, the supplier is their oil and gas company PGNiG.
“PGNiG buys in the USA 4-4,5 billion cubes and they are not lucky, what's in Poland, because it is a trader and can supply raw materials anywhere. In Warsaw then they spoke, that gas under this contract will be on 30 percent cheaper, than Gazprom, and this demonstrates the phenomenal psychic abilities of the Polish leadership, because it’s impossible to guess the order of prices ”, – Frolov sums up.
According to Alexander Sergeevich, no one can say, how much will Russian or American gas cost for Poland in a year.
“And today comes the day, when the transit contract with Poland ended and it turned out, that Gazprom can work according to European rules, relying on those mechanisms, which offers European legislation for resource suppliers in the form of an auction system for the sale of raw materials ", – states Frolov.
In Poland, realized, that their direction is not a priority for Gazprom, who does not have a task to fully load it.
In such a situation, it makes no sense to continue the orthodox line in Russia, because of what this statement of Kaczynski appeared.
Dmitry Sikorski
