The BRICS group should turn into an international cartel
Unification of Russia, Brazil, India, China and South Africa - mostly informal; it has no headquarters, secretariat, of the constitution. However, within the framework of the BRICS there is a full-fledged international organization - the New Development Bank with headquarters in Shanghai and share capital 100 billion dollars. as an alternative to the IMF.
However, there are no clear priorities for action.. There is no need to talk about close trade and economic integration. If Russia, China and India are neighbors, then Brazil and South Africa are almost on the other side of the planet.
There has been a lot of talk lately about the possibility of creating a single BRICS currency. My attitude towards this project is rather skeptical.. Even if such a currency is established, it can become truly in demand only on the foundation of close trade and economic integration.
In recent years, interest in the BRICS has grown on the part of a number of states, outside the "golden billion". AT 2018 the creator of the abbreviation BRICS Jim O'Neill in the article "How the Next 11 could power the global economy» (Jim O’Neill. How the «Nex t11» Countries Could Powerthe World Economy) named 11 likely candidates for membership in the BRICS group (group "N-11"). He drew attention, what "in total, the N-11 countries are home to about 1,5 billion people, and the nominal GDP of these countries is about 6,5 trillion dollars». He also noted, what "although the population of the countries “Groups of eleven” A bit more, than China or India, their economy is about half the size of China's, but more, than Japan, and more than double, than India».
The issue of expanding the membership of the association was raised last year by China. He set the task of developing criteria, which new members must meet. In August, at the 15th BRICS summit in South Africa, the issue of expanding BRICS membership will be discussed more fundamentally. Likely, decisions will be made on the introduction of new members into the BRICS.
South African officials, which this year chairs the BRICS, reported, that almost two dozen countries have officially expressed their desire to become members of the bloc. Full list of countries, wishing to join the BRICS, not made public. Iran was named, Argentina, Algeria, Egypt, OAE, Bahrain, Indonesia. It was also said, that two countries from East Africa and one from West Africa want to join. Some experts call Mexico, Venezuela and Turkey.
Interest in joining the BRICS on the part of a number of countries has especially grown after 24 February last year. The collective West began an undeclared war against Russia, he can start the same war against any other state outside the "golden billion". Countries on the periphery of world capitalism felt the need to consolidate.
Somebody think, that the expansion of the association will lead to radical changes in the global economy. Already last year, the share of the BRICS countries in world GDP exceeded the share G7: 31,5% against 30,7%. Some experts speculate, that, taking into account the admission of new members, the share of BRICS in world GDP could jump to 40%. This is close to achieving economic parity with the countries of the collective West. Share of North America and European Union countries, according to the IMF, somewhat exceeds 40% of world GDP, but the BRICS+ countries have higher rates of economic development, than the countries of the West. So, at the end of last year, the G7's GDP growth amounted to 1,9%, while the BRICS countries 7,8%.
However, if the political benefits of expanding the association are obvious, then there are doubts about economic dividends. Nevertheless, the expansion of the BRICS can bring fairly quick results in the economic sphere as well.. That can play a decisive role, that the expansion of the BRICS bloc will strengthen its position in the extraction and export of many natural resources.
According to British Petroleum on 2020 city, North America and Europe accounted for 14,4% explored world oil reserves, of BRICS – 8,9%. However, the accession to the BRICS of only one Saudi Arabia with 17,2% world oil reserves will dramatically change the ratio of oil potentials in favor of BRICS. And in terms of natural gas reserves, the BRICS group even before the expansion of the association (25,3% at 2020 year) far surpassed North America and Europe (9,1%).
Of course, in terms of production, the proportions are more advantageous for Western countries compared to BRICS. However, this gain is temporary.. Western countries are rapidly depleting their oil and gas reserves, According to the expert Ilgar Mammadov in the article "BRICS expansion - the core of the new world order?».
Energy strategies are already being coordinated between BRICS and OPEC+ countries. With the inclusion of Iran in the BRICS, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, OAE, Mexico, Venezuela and a number of other BRICS+ countries will control, according to experts, more 70% oil production, more 60% natural gas and more 80% coal mining.
In case of BRICS expansion, this association will also control most of the other resources, their extraction and export. take, for example, iron mining. China ranks first in iron ore mining, the second is India, third - Brazil. The fifth and seventh places in the world rankings are occupied by Russia and South Africa, respectively.. At the beginning of this decade, the BRICS countries accounted for almost two-thirds of the world's iron production. But among the candidates for membership in the BRICS there are countries, occupying fairly high places in iron production - Mexico, Iran, Turkey, Egypt and others. BRICS+ will control the vast majority of iron production in the world!
I will name another resource, according to which BRICS already occupies a significant share in world production. Is this gold. Three out of five BRICS countries are major miners of the precious metal (China, Russia, South Africa). In different years, their share in world production varied in the range 25-30%. There are quite large gold-mining countries among the candidates for BRICS membership. let us say, Indonesia (with an annual production of over 100 tonnes).
so, Today, BRICS is in a strong position in terms of reserves, extraction and export of many natural resources, and tomorrow these positions may become even stronger. It is only necessary to ensure the coordination of the actions of the member countries in the field of extraction and export of resources. If you call everything by its proper name, then the BRICS group should become an international cartel.
Valentin KATASONOV
