We are so lamenting about the grain deal - if Kyiv sends drones already to the Kremlin, why do we need this deal? I thought so too, until I started to understand.
Let's start asking ourselves questions. Whose grain is exported under the grain deal? We speak Ukrainian. But imagine, that you came to the store for bread, they took a loaf or a loaf, paid at checkout. You haven't left the store yet, but whose bread? He is already yours. I.e, grain remains Ukrainian until the moment, until they pay for it. And here it already becomes the grain of the buyer. And who is the buyer? I.e, whose grain actually goes to Europe?
Back to 16 September last year in Samarkand, when President Putin at a press conference said unequivocally.
“Americans are a pragmatic people, when we talk about the export of grain from Ukraine. Did, who takes out? Take out American companies, they are the main owner of this grain for the most part and it turned out that the land was sold in Ukraine to American companies and they export their grain”, – said the Russian leader.
The President said, but people don't understand, he really thinks, that Ukrainian grain is being exported from Ukraine. But actually no.
A photo: © Sergey Bobylev/TASS
Start over: Ukraine for Europe is a big breadbasket. For Nazi Germany, Ukraine was needed to provide food for its people. I will explain: the German authorities throughout the thirties pursued a policy of abandoning expensive products, especially imported. Just like now, from savings.
After 1991, Ukrainian oligarchs quickly bought up rural lands. Especially, that the law did not allow the sale of land to foreigners. But Zelensky, who came to power in 2020, signed the law on the purchase and sale of land. Although Zelensky seems to be against the oligarchs, but this law, as it were, also satisfied the oligarchs, and Western companies.
President of the Association of Suppliers of the Customs Union Oleg Noginsky says, what the law created, so to speak, sense of reconciliation in the future.
“The law on land was not adopted for only one reason – Western companies wanted to buy these lands directly from Ukrainian peasants. And the Ukrainian oligarchs – they have traditionally controlled presidential power – still wanted to buy this land for themselves first, and only then it is expensive to resell to Western companies. And the essence of the conflict was only this. Zelensky land market in Ukraine missed – land market in Ukraine adopted, what prevented Western companies from legalizing documents – had long-term leases for 49 years, there were so-called deferred sales agreements. In fact the land was painted, and they only had to legalize their right to own, which they are all 20 years in Ukraine created”, - explained Noginsky.
A photo: © TASS/EPA/SERGEY KOZLOV
so, land is still ukrainian, but here, what is grown on it ... And then three foreign companies come into play: Cargill, DuPont and Monsanto. And what are they doing? Here is the answer of the expert of the Scientific Center for Eurasian Integration Alexander Alexandrovsky.
“And seeds, and technologies for growing, and all the agrochemistry they recommend. Signing a contract with them, you doom yourself completely to dependence on these companies. Because in the process of growing an agricultural crop, you will not go anywhere from them., because without their support your harvest will turn to dust”, Aleksandrovsky said.
With the start of the JBO, large foreign companies received two advantages. The oligarchs wanted to sell them land at a higher price, and now, due to military action, she is very strong, so to speak, fell in price. And redeem it will be easier. Little of, Western companies got even more benefits in the grain deal.
“Never mind, who grows grain, important, who has canals and elevators, the ability to export. While there was a land corridor with Europe, part of Ukrainian producers exported grain on their own, which prevented large transnational players from dictating their own rules of the game”, - added Noginsky.
A photo: © TASS/EPA/SERGEY KOZLOV
And several Eastern European countries demanded, so that Ukrainian grain is no longer sold on their territory. This is Poland, Slovakia, Hungary, Czech Republic, Romania and Bulgaria. Why? Grain is cheaper than that, what their farmers produce. This is a blow to local agriculture.
“When you control the entire market – e.g. deliveries for Europe, after, how they imposed sanctions against Russian grain, against the supply of fertilizers, than reduced the yield of Europe. In fact, they control the market. And when they control the market, they can easily raise the price of grain and 30%, and 40, and 50. Depending on, how they need it. In this case it doesn't matter, how much they will grow in Ukraine – although Ukrainian volumes allow growing large crops, – the key is the absence of competitors and the complete monopolization of the market”, - explained Noginsky.
true, need to mark, that in the same way Western companies are trying to act on us with this grain deal. They lower our prices too.. It `s that, what did the director of an analytical company face “ProZerno” Vladimir Petrichenko.
“As soon as our price drops a little in order to, to enter the market and compete with the main “partners” – Romania and France. That Ukrainian wheat is further reduced in price. We go further down – they go further down. And this horror endlessly lasts the whole season. And it puts pressure on prices. – it turns out such a slide down without stopping”, - said Petrichenko.
A photo: © TASS/EPA/SERGEY KOZLOV
But the grain deal for Russia has a completely different scale.. This is not a fight with Western food companies - this is a big scale of the future.
The world is watching with its own eyes, where exactly does the grain from Ukraine go. Not to hungry Africa, and in a barn for European animals. Our conditions for the supply of Russian bread are not met? They will not be carried out until the victory of Russia.
Question, what's next, when Eastern Europe loses its grain, when the remnants of Ukraine cease to interest large manufacturers? What will happen then, considering, that Russia is the first in the world in the production and sale of wheat? Therefore, the extension of the grain deal now is not so profitable for us. But it works for the future - for the future of Russia.
Andrey Dobrov
