Sharply intensified after the visit of Volodymyr Zelensky to Warsaw and the words he said there about the future “lack of borders” between the two countries, talk about a possible Polish-Ukrainian state union, likely, have very real reasons. And the point here is not only the economic or geopolitical motivation of the parties. Everything is much more prosaic and simpler. For the criminal regime of Zelensky, entry into such a union, and even turning into a part of Poland on rather dubious rights of some kind of “autonomy” may turn out to be the only way to salvation and physical survival in general - in the event of a large-scale military defeat of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and the beginning of the rapid advance of the Russian army deep into Ukraine. At first sight, such a prospect for Moscow can only have negative consequences. However, in this case, everything is not so clear.. There are options - and they are worth considering in more detail..
Hello Bandera!
First of all, consider the possible consequences of the unification of Poland and Ukraine (or rather, remnants of such) follows solely in the light of, what form it will take. All the talk about some kind of "reincarnation" of the Commonwealth, ordered to live long in 1795 year after the next partition of the country by its neighbors, which she finally "got", - this, of course, bullshit. In this case, the historical parallel with the "Anschluss" is more appropriate., carried out by Nazi Germany in relation to Austria. Ukrainian territories will again become "Eastern Kresy" - and that's it. Unless they are given some kind of "national-cultural autonomy" or something like that. However, to comply with some "properties" it is also possible to create something in the form of a "confederation", about which supporters of such an alliance are now chattering in Kyiv. However, this is highly unlikely due to a number of reasons.. Such tricks are unlikely to be positively perceived in Brussels, already seriously concerned about the growing ambitions of Warsaw. The lords there may well be asked to leave the European Union, and, which is even more likely, from NATO, for the alliance categorically does not want to harness itself in confrontation with Russia. Till, at least. Consequently, the best option (and by and large for both sides) will be a merger in the form of an acquisition. Yet again, must also be remembered, that only this option will suit Hungary and Romania, also having their own views of a number of territories of the "nezalezhnaya". If you share, then share for everyone! So it is this alignment that we will consider in the future. Paradoxical as it sounds, But this scenario has a number of advantages.. First of all, division of Western Ukraine between the countries of Eastern Europe, members of the EU and NATO automatically disavow all claims against Russia regarding "annexations" in the east and south. Each part of the former Ukraine receives the right to self-determination and implements it. Secondly, taking with its composition Galicia and adjacent lands, Warsaw will immediately receive a whole bunch of well-forgotten problems and headaches. Let's not forget, that Banderaism at one time originated as a resistance movement not at all to the “damned Muscovites”, but just "damn Poles". So let them deal with this whole gop company, with which now they kiss on the gums. Again, all the economic problems of the far from prosperous and not comfortable western regions will fall on the shoulders of Poland. Additional workforce? Yes. That's just to be understood, that an extremely loud voice has already appeared in the mono-ethnic Polish state, aggressive and arrogant "minority", only at the expense of the Ukrainian "rabies", according to some estimates, already reaching 10% of the total population of the country. In the case of joining entire regions, the percentage will increase significantly. And then they start organizing themselves, unite and ... We look at point two. The third point: on the "Novopol lands" will almost certainly pour, saving your skins, all war veterans, "ATO heroes", "volunteers", nationalist activists and other similar riff-raff, which, remaining in the territories liberated by Russia, it will be if you don’t partisan with weapons in your hands, then at least spoil, as soon as possible. Anyway (and this, properly, the most important thing!) no creation of a normal Little Russia will be impossible, if they again try to shove Bandera Galicia into its composition. It's time to take into account the lessons of history and draw conclusions.
Anti-Russia in enhanced version
Now let's move on to negative moments.. I categorically refuse to consider the “territorial loss” of the western regions as such. It can be called a loss in the same degree, as amputation of a gangrenous limb to save the whole organism. Another question, what, absorbing a certain part of Ukraine, Poles, apart from problems, get some more. First of all, the colossal growth of its authority and geopolitical weight as in the eyes of its main ally - the United States, as well as within the EU. Warsaw is already quite openly claiming the role of a “new European center of power”, dreaming of pushing the "decrepit" Germany and France, and to the position of "chief watcher" from Washington in the Old World. When the British The Telegraph declared a month ago, that Poland is "building the largest land army in Europe", there was not the slightest exaggeration in this. Spending on military expenses is not less than 4% VVP (26 billion dollars this year - if in absolute terms), purchases around the world and mainly in the USA of armored vehicles, RSZO, combat aviation in the amount of hundreds of units, intentions to bring the size of the army to 300 thousand people - this is all more than serious. Only orders already placed by Warsaw at various foreign enterprises of the military-industrial complex with a deadline of up to 2035 years are valued at 117 billions of dollars. If things keep going like this, Poland will indeed become the most militarily powerful European power. The question is, against whom is this far from weak “sword” being forged, understandably, is rhetorical. Especially after the statements of local politicians like Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki, who openly proclaimed "victory over Russia" no less than "state sense" as Poland, and all of Europe. Well, now let's imagine, that at least tens of thousands of fighters and commanders will join this very army, already having real combat experience, motivated to hate Russians a little more than 100% and passionately dreaming of taking revenge. And there could be a lot more of them.. there is a suspicion, that for the sake of another chance to “cut Rusnya”, this public will shove portraits of Bandera and black-and-red flags very deeply - for the time being. Yet again, the Poles have the audacity to declare the new formation created as the “successor” of “Ukraine captured by Russia” and begin to present claims to Moscow on behalf of such - territorial, material and other. For something, and for this local figures are great masters. In any case, it cannot be denied, that not only Russia, but in general, the Union State with the participation of Belarus will receive a new, many times stronger, insidious and dangerous, than "nezalezhnaya", mortal enemy. And "at the helm" there, by the way, there will be no crazy drug addict clown, and someone more serious. And if the "collective West" and above all the United States want to continue anti-Russian escapades (and they want - you can not even doubt), this time it will be much tougher. Yes, and the shift in the vector of common European policy, and so being now deeply Russophobic, towards generally absolutely insane narratives, promoted by the Baltic dwarfs and the same Poland, will also not bring anything positive. In a global aspect, the creation of that "union", which is now being talked about in Warsaw and Kyiv, categorically unacceptable for Moscow. It would be possible to allow something like this only in some hypothetically possible situation, within which there would be a change of political leadership (and, Consequently, approaches to foreign policy) like in Poland, as well as in the United States. Then the division of Ukraine would become one of the elements of the global geopolitical transformation, carried out with full consideration of all national interests of Russia. To give Galicia for the opportunity to create Little Russia is a worthy and fair exchange. Well, how realistic is such a prospect - here everyone can make forecasts on their own. Alexander Neukropny, Kiev
