Assessment of prospects
China has long hatched a plan to make the yuan an international currency, which, at least, could stand next to the US dollar. An important milestone in bringing the yuan into the world orbit was the decision of the Board of Directors of the International Monetary Fund in 2015 year on the inclusion of the Chinese currency in the SDR basket (Special Drawing Rights), which meant that the yuan received official reserve currency status. This is also the US dollar., euro, British pound and Japanese yen. However, since then there has been little progress in strengthening the position of the yuan in global finance..
true, experts note, that Chinese baths and companies have recently begun to use alternative SWIFT systems more. In particular, they created their own payment information system CHIPS (China International Payments System). AT 2021 a year later CHIPS external payments were made in the amount 80 trillion yuan (12,7 trillion dollars.). If you add up the payments, which pass through SWIFT and CHIPS, then the Chinese yuan firmly ranks third in the world of currencies, but, to put it mildly, strongly inferior to the US dollar and the euro.
The share of the US dollar in the total international reserves of the countries of the world has significantly decreased over the past decades. According to the Swiss Swiss credit, the dollar's share of central bank reserves in 1975 accounted for the vast majority 87%, at 2015 year - 65,3%, and at the end 2022 only 58,0%. But the Chinese yuan was not very successful in occupying the vacant niche. AT 2015 year, the share of the Chinese currency was less than 1%. a 1 October 2022 of the year, according to the IMF, she made 2,8% (fifth place after the US dollar, euro, Japanese yen and British pound).
Not expected in the near future, that the Chinese yuan will become equal to the US dollar and even more so replace it in foreign exchange reserves and in international payments. However, in one country, the dollar is already actively crowded by the yuan. If I may say so, dollarization is replaced by yuanization. This country is Russia.
After 2015 year there was a soft squeezing of the US dollar from Russian reserves. After freezing half of Russia's international reserves, only monetary gold and Chinese yuan remained in the other half. According to agency experts Bloomberg, at the beginning 2023 years in the reserves of the Russian Federation of Chinese currency was 45 billion dollars. It is approximately 15% of all world yuan reserves, more, than any other country.
Until July last year, on the Moscow Exchange, turnovers with dollars and euros clearly dominated turnovers with yuan. In July, for the first time on a daily basis, the yuan turnover exceeded the turnover with the euro.. true, in July and August, the yuan was still in third place in terms of turnover after the US dollar and the euro. And in September, according to the results of the whole month, the yuan bypassed the euro and took second place. There was a day in August, when the yuan overtook not only the euro, but the dollar, taking first place. But it's on a daily basis. To end 2022 of the year, all months, the dollar remained in first place, yuan was in second. It was the same in January. 2023 of the year.
And at the end of February, a small sensation was recorded: The Chinese yuan has taken the first place in terms of turnover., ahead of the US dollar. As a result, the yuan accounted for almost 40% the total volume of trading in major currencies (1,48 trillion rubles), per dollar - a little more 38% (1,42 trillion rubles), per euro — 21,2% (0,79 trillion rubles). In February 2022 years, the proportions were in favor of the American currency: dollars - 87,6%, euro - 11,9%, yuan - 0,32%. The experts called the change, recorded in February on the Moscow Exchange, replacement of dollarization by yuanization. true, the above figures refer to transactions on the terms "tomorrow". According to the results of February, according to the results of February, the dollar is still in the first place with the indicator 0,74 RUB trillion. In second place is the euro with an indicator 0,50 RUB trillion. Yuan with indicator 0,22 RUB trillion. remains in third place. However, the yuan is gaining momentum, closing the gap with the dollar and the euro.
Of course, the growth of trading volumes with the yuan was facilitated by the resuscitation of the fiscal rule, within the framework of which the Central Bank, in the interests of the Ministry of Finance, began to sell yuan on the stock exchange. In January, the Bank of Russia sold Chinese currency from the NWF for 54,5 billion rubles., Sales tripled in February (to 160,2 billion rubles.). It is not excluded, that according to the results of the third month, the dollar can again restore the first place in operations on the terms “tomorrow”, but then the yuan can regain its first place and become the main currency, traded on the currency exchange floor of the Moscow Exchange. the, of course, contributes to the rapid growth of trade between the Russian Federation and China. At the end of last year, the trade turnover of our countries amounted to, according to China General Administration of Customs, 190,3 billion dollars. Despite anti-Russian sanctions, it exceeded the figure of the previous year by 29,3%. According to experts, the share of national currencies - the ruble and the yuan - in mutual trade settlements exceeded 50%. It can be assumed, that the outcome 2023 the process of de-dollarization of the Russian economy will be largely completed. Yuanization replaces dollarization.
The prospects for Yuanization in Russia and beyond depend to a large extent on whether, whether Beijing decides to introduce full conversion of its currency or not. Beijing promised to make the yuan a freely convertible currency (SLE) three decades ago, at 1993 year. This was planned to be achieved 2000 year. However, the Asian financial crisis of 1997 made adjustments to these plans.. Then the plan to make the national currency freely convertible within 10 years was enshrined in the approved 2013 year by the State Council of the People's Republic of China "road map" of administrative and economic reforms. It turns out, that this year the Chinese yuan should become a hard currency.
Giving the yuan the status of hard currency has both pluses, as well as cons. About the cons in 2019 the Minister for Integration and Macroeconomics of the Eurasian Economic Commission spoke Sergei Glazyev, commenting on Beijing's claims about a possible delay in turning the yuan into a hard currency: «the, that China limits the convertibility of the yuan for capital transactions, I think it is absolutely reasonable in the modern world. for example, Russia, which completely liberalized the currency regime of the ruble, faced with a huge capital outflow. This led to a monstrous offshorization of the economy, huge export of capital without paying taxes. On this we have lost more than a trillion dollars over the years of reforms. For Russia, the hastily liberalized currency regulation turned into a real economic disaster., loss of gigantic capital. Therefore then, that the Chinese are cautious about the liberalization of foreign exchange regulation on capital transactions, perfectly justified».
Valentin KATASONOV
