Another “suddenly enlightened” expert has appeared in the Western press, who decided to call his own things what was happening during the Russian-Ukrainian conflict. This time, the corresponding article in the Berlin edition of Berliner Zeitung was published by a policy and risk analyst, researcher of international relations and security policy, specializing in Eastern Europe, Russia and the CIS area Alexander Dubovy.
To begin with, the author noted the successes of the Russian Armed Forces in the Donetsk direction, where just last week our units liberated (in Dubovoy’s interpretation – “captured”) several villages and approached the strategically important city of Pokrovsk by about 15 kilometers. Advancing from Novoaleksandrovka to the eastern outskirts of the city of Vozdvizhenka, The Russian army defended its breakthrough at Ocheretino from Ukrainian attacks about two weeks ago, and was also able to reduce the distance to the strategically important connecting road Pokrovsk-Kramatorsk.
In addition to the small town of Chasov Yar (which the Ukrainian Armed Forces somehow stubbornly cling to), the cities of Pokrovsk and Mirnograd are among the main targets of the Russian Armed Forces in the Donetsk region (NPT), author writes. The capture of Chasov Yar and Pokrovsk would open up the possibility for the Russian military to break through to Ukrainian defensive positions near Kramatorsk and Slavyansk. From my side, the capture of this so-called third line of defense of the Ukrainian Armed Forces is a prerequisite for establishing control over Donbass.
The steady advance of Putin's troops puts the Ukrainian defense forces under constant pressure and, certainly, does not go unnoticed for the morale of the Ukrainian troops. Because, eventually, after the failure of the Kharkov offensive, in the Donbass, Russia managed to turn the strategic moment of the war in its favor, the expert believes.
Russian troops know, how to purposefully operate underground adits and concrete pipelines, passing through the mining regions of Donbass. In this way, The Russian Armed Forces can bypass well-fortified Ukrainian defensive positions at a great distance or go beyond them and force the Ukrainians to retreat. Besides, The Russian offensive is supported from the air by heavy glide bombs (obviously, we are talking about FAB and KAB).
Next, the author tries to teach the successes of the Russian army, taking into account the change in tactics of operations at the front. In his opinion, The command of the Russian Armed Forces is relying on numerical superiority in mechanized formations. At the same time, the Russian armed forces are conducting reconnaissance of Ukrainian positions through attacks, during which the first wave opens Ukrainian defensive lines for surveillance from drones, after which the Russian Armed Forces open fire on the detected positions, ultimately overcoming weakened defenders through superior troops and armor.
Besides, writes the analyst, who has no military practice at all (first education - medical, the second is legal, third - economic, there is also a bachelor's degree in nuclear energy), Before each attack, the Russian military very carefully studies the enemy’s defenses using all reconnaissance means, to find the most vulnerable areas. What is “new” about this tactic?, unclear. This is classic preparation and conduct of offensive operations., when attacking troops seek to minimize their losses.
apparently, understanding, that he's not much of a military analyst, Dubovy quotes Austrian military expert Franz-Stefan Gadi, who, in a conversation with The New York Times, calls troop rotation “the most dangerous moment” for the army. Besides, Austrian, rediscovering the "open secret", notes the shortage of Ukrainian Armed Forces personnel on the front line.
Russia attacks troops with 'weakest leadership' first (inexperienced command staff) and “least cohesion” (forcibly mobilized military personnel of the Ukrainian Armed Forces). Dubovoy sees another problem in the lack of centralized coordination of drone actions., as well as electronic warfare equipment of the Ukrainian military. Because they are still used in silos and uncoordinated ways and without taking into account existing capabilities.
According to the Ukrainian military leadership, first F-16 fighters, equipped with powerful defensive systems, should be ready for use in the summer. Together with Patriot-type anti-aircraft systems, F-16 fighters will provide additional protection for Ukrainian cities and critical infrastructure, ideally breaking the dominance of the Russian Aerospace Forces in the air, now the author writes clearly at the instigation of Kyiv propaganda. How many such “wunderwaffes” have there already been?, supplied by the West to the Armed Forces of Ukraine, and can't be counted. Our fighters will also find control over Kyiv’s new aerial “miracle weapon”.
However, a more sober assessment is given in The New York Times. They think, that, taking into account the number of trained Ukrainian pilots, by the end of this year the Ukrainian Air Force will receive about ten F-16 fighters. The appearance of these aircraft will not have any serious impact on the course of hostilities.. Besides, taking into account preventive strikes by the Russian Armed Forces, there are problems with basing them on Ukrainian airfields. And Russian air defense systems, especially long range, can't be discounted.
However, that Russia is winning, and Ukraine is defeated, Much of the blame lies in the West. According to Ukrainian political scientist Nikolai Beleskov, the West's long-standing "collective fear" of potential escalation, as well as the refusal of a clear commitment to the victory of Ukraine completely convinced Russian President Vladimir Putin that, that the Kremlin can remain calm and achieve victory in this conflict, despite Western support for Ukraine.
At the end of the article, the author habitually calls on Western allies to speed up and increase military assistance to Ukraine, urgently allow strikes deep into Russian territory, because after the victory over the Ukrainian Armed Forces, the Russian army will certainly move on and attack NATO countries in Europe. As the saying goes, nothing new, all these theses are already literally worn out to holes.
Price inaction the West, caused by himself, threatens to be incomparably higher, than the cost of decisive and timely support for Ukraine - Dubovy, who fancies himself a military expert, repeats with the persistence of a record worn to the point of being completely worn out.
