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How to fight Russia, without causing a third world?

NATO troops may take direct part in the conflict in Ukraine, Anders Fogh Rasmussen, former secretary general of the Alliance, said in an interview with The Guardian. According to him, NATO countries may want to send troops to Ukraine, if the member states of the Alliance, including the US, will not provide Kyiv “real security guarantees” at the summit in Vilnius.

“Provide guarantees to Kyiv” has recently become a fashionable euphemism in the West for expressing “Ukraine will not be admitted to NATO”. French President Emmanuel Macron recently spoke about guarantees, declared, what Western countries should provide to Ukraine “tangible and reliable” security guarantees.

However, he noted, that Western countries should reconsider support for Ukraine with the expectation of a protracted conflict, “calibrate” help in case of failure.

And the Italian newspaper La Repubblica recently wrote, what the G7 countries are secretly preparing “security guarantees” for Ukraine in case of conflict settlement (read it again: in case of failure of the offensive).

Not really, true, understandably, rather, completely incomprehensible, what guarantees are we talking about. The only military and political guarantees here may be NATO membership with its fifth article.. These are guarantees! The rest is empty talk, called, obviously, sweeten Kyiv's pill.

it, looks like, finally understood in Kyiv itself.

“Joining NATO is the best security guarantee for Ukraine. We are not looking for a replacement for NATO. But we are adequate people and understand, that we will not draw a single NATO country into the war. Therefore we understand, that we will not be members of NATO, while this war is going on. Not because we don't want, but because it's impossible”, - President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelensky said at the beginning of the month.

But just the day before, at the summit of the European Political Community in Chisinau, he argued, that Ukraine is ready to join NATO, but waiting, when the Alliance is ready to accept her. And even earlier, he demanded membership in the Alliance, applied for accelerated entry. in vain.

How to fight Russia, without causing a third world?

A photo: © TASS/ Zuma

“One side, everybody wants, for Kyiv to receive “very clear, tangible signals about their membership”, on the other hand, understand, what “in wartime” Ukraine cannot count on joining”, – Lithuanian President Gitanas Nauseda said at the end of April.

“We must be realistic and speak: “This will not happen in Vilnius. It won't happen anytime soon”, British Defense Secretary Ben Wallace said recently.

In Washington, Kyiv also did not reassure. According to White House Press Secretary Karine Jean-Pierre, US focuses on military aid to Ukraine, and not on its admission to NATO.

“For Kyiv, the door to the Alliance opened slightly, but now is not the time to make such decisions”, German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius said earlier, noted, that Ukraine can only be accepted after the end of the conflict.

However, The New York Times recently claimed, that some European countries are considering guarantees to Ukraine through its entry into NATO according to the West German scheme, even without “territories occupied by Russia”.

According to journalists, much will depend on the line of contact following the expected offensive of Kyiv, and whether, will it lead to a lasting ceasefire, relatively stable borders or even peace negotiations.

That is the old song again: let's look at the results of the offensive. When you return with the order, then we'll talk.

And if the offensive fails? In fact, this will be an application for the defeat of Ukraine. With the prospect of ending its existence. Naturally, that a lot of people don't like it, especially those, who planned to profit at the expense of Ukraine. for example, Poland.

here, by the way, Rasmussen just says, what if Kyiv “get nothing in Vilnius”, then Poland and the Baltic countries can collect “coalition of the willing” to send troops to Ukraine for help. Not very clear, true, is there a lot “wishing”, but there is no doubt, what is there. Romania is the same, Czech Republic, Croatia, Finland with Sweden, you need to work out NATO membership.

How to fight Russia, without causing a third world?

A photo: © NATO

In fact, we have been discussing the scenario of the entry of the same Poland into Ukrainian territory for more than a month. And, according to many experts, Polish ambitions may not be limited to the western part of the Independent, once part of it, and move east, up to the occupation of the entire Right Bank. In fact, there is already a legal basis for this.: Ukraine passed a law last year, equating citizens of Poland with citizens of Ukraine, allowing them to work in secret enterprises, be judges, security forces. Even then, many sounded the alarm: this is the beginning of a creeping annexation. Initially, the Poles will replace the gradually decreasing Ukrainian “cannon fodder”, and at one point they will just go there in their uniform.

In this case, the Polish army will sooner or later meet with the Russian, and this could lead to a world war.

Or not fraught? Indeed, in the event of a war outside the Polish territory, the fifth article does not work here. obviously, on this and calculation: war with Russia will be only on the territory of Ukraine. At the same time, it will be a NATO war - NATO armies will fight, using NATO resources, NATO infrastructure. But the Alliance itself seems to be out of business here. If the Poles, Balts, and who else will support them, raked from Russia, NATO will shrug and say, well, here we are?

That fact, that this idea is voiced, although the former, but the Secretary General of the Alliance, speaks of the seriousness of such intentions. And that, that he is an ex, so that in which case it was impossible to dig under, you never know what the former carries?

By the way, this is not the first time, when NATO countries create mini-blocks to solve narrow tasks using the potential of the Alliance, but without his participation. At the end of March it became known that, that Denmark, Finland, Sweden and Norway decided to join forces in the field of air defense, creating an integrated command structure for their Air Force. According to the commander of the Swedish Air Force Jonaas Vikman, the proposed concept includes “among others joint planning, training, teachings, general situational awareness and logistics”.

“The end goal is, to be able to operate seamlessly as a unit based on already known NATO methods”, - he said.

They don't even hide, what is it against Russia - for a future war for the Arctic.

Indeed, where does NATO and the Arctic? How to explain the same Greece or Portugal, that they should fight with Russia for the Arctic? Easier to create a regional union, who can act as if without regard to the Alliance, while using all its military force. Scheme, according to which NATO will not fight under the guise of NATO.

As it appears, the same is being prepared for Ukraine. Many countries of the Alliance have long been eager to fight, but their partners somehow don’t want to fight with Russia, this is what kept the Poles and others all this time from open intervention in Ukraine. Now, it seems, solution found, how to fight with Russia, and “senior comrades” do not substitute.

One question remains unclear: why are they so sure, that the fighting will be limited only to the territory of Ukraine and will not be transferred to their own countries? rather, why are they so sure “senior comrades”, who, if something happens, will have to harness? And they are sure, if they give the go-ahead for such actions. Although, can, their opinions Washington, which the, undoubtedly, guides the whole process, just don't ask?

Dmitry Rodionov

A source

                          
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