Turkish President Tayyip Recep Tayyip Erdogan sworn in for third term, putting an end to a successful campaign to retain power and rubbing the nose of the United States and its allies, who openly bet on his defeat in the May elections.
Need to mark, that this campaign was really extremely difficult for Erdogan. Not at all due to US interference (that, need to mark, was completely undisguised - the American media staged a real persecution of the Turkish president, directly urging Turkish citizens to vote for his opponent). This campaign was the first 20 years of Erdogan's rule (as prime minister, as well as the president), during which he had chances to lose power, first campaign in years, in which there was real intrigue.
Two campaigns before Erdogan won easily and naturally in the first round. This was due to two reasons: the absence of serious problems in the economy and the fragmentation of the opposition, her inability to even field a single candidate, capable of resisting a successful leader, having accumulated all the protest energy of society.
A photo: © Global Look Press/Mehmet Masum Suer/Keystone Press Agency
This time the elections took place against the backdrop of an acute economic crisis and a historic fall in the national currency.. As well as the consequences of the devastating earthquake in February of this year - then there were even rumors, that Erdogan will cancel the elections, fear, that will not be able to overcome its consequences. However, he found the will in himself not to postpone the vote., and it worked out in his favor..
The issue of Syrian refugees also played against him., whose presence in Turkey during the crisis raises many questions among the Turks, and what did the opposition actively use in their campaign. However, this did not help her either. (but naturalized refugees helped Erdogan, voted yes, “how to”).
The desire to gather all, who is against Erdogan, without offering a concrete outline of the future, in fact, urging to vote for everything good against everything bad. The coalition looked like a swan, cancer and pike: nationalists, Kemalists, moderate Islamists, democrats. Opposition candidate Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu tried to be his own for everyone, but, flirting with the Kurds (this clearly alienated the voters of the coalition that nominated Kılıçdaroğlu “Have a nice party”), he repelled nationalists - and vice versa. It turned, what people, ready to vote for anyone, if only not for Erdogan not so much, not enough to win.
And yet, there were quite a few of them - almost half of Turkish society. It's a pretty serious split., which could lead to the departure of Erdogan, and only a combination of certain factors helped him to stay.
A photo: © Global Look Press/IMAGO/Abed Alrahman Alkahlout
In addition to the lack of unity of the opposition and the image of the future, this is her frank unwillingness to fight for power. As well as the fatigue of her voters. Opposition (and the West behind it) seriously believed in their victory, and in the first round (Erdogan star, weak, the economy is going downhill, people are outraged by the dominance of the Syrians, with the Kurds, a sluggish civil war, etc.). Obviously, the collapse of hopes for an easy victory demoralized both the opposition itself, and its electorate, many representatives of which simply did not come to the second one (Erdogan supporters, in front of, demonstrated amazing cohesion).
Finally, much was decided by the call of Sinan Ogan, 3rd place in the first round with 5% of the votes, support the current leader. Ogan's electorate also turned out to be motley, some were quite pro-Erdogan-minded (Fire nationalist, a native of the Bahceli Nationalist Movement Party, ally of the President), the other was strongly opposed to the refugees, and therefore, eventually supported Kılıçaroğlu, who promised to expel them from the country, however, even half of Ogan's five percent guaranteed Erdogan victory.
Turkish media, true, wrote, that Ogan's call was bought for the ministerial portfolio, but this hardly worries his voters, Considering, that many of them were initially inclined to support rather Erdogan, than his opponent.
Foreign policy also played for the incumbent and against his rival. Kılıçaroğlu positioned himself as an ardent pro-Western politician and did not hesitate to support the United States and Europe. Erdogan or, in front of, looked like a strong national leader, guarantor of sovereignty and actively used it, criticizing the opponent for his excessive protruding pro-Western.
Did Kılıçdaroğlu understand (which is open, did not hesitate to contact the American ambassador - whom Erdogan then forbade to appear in his residence).
Did Kılıçdaroğlu understand, that it will drown him, or whether he acted in everything according to instructions from Washington - it is not known. but the fact, that Erdogan successfully turned it in his favor.
Kılıçdaroglu also frankly played with the anti-Russian card. First he stated, that in case of victory will remind Russia of, that Türkiye is a member of NATO, and after the first round promised “do not give up the homeland to those, who collaborated with Russia”, accused Moscow of interfering in the elections (this is against the backdrop of an open flow of propaganda from Washington). Who togo, he hinted at the possibility of revising a number of agreements with Russia, including gas hub, which he called a threat to Turkey's energy independence. It happened before, in fact, a promise to shoot their own economy in the legs, Turkish layman is far from being a fool, especially, that he had already seen it in Europe. And the threat to scare away a Russian tourist, especially for those, who feeds on it, further deterred voters from the opposition.
A photo: © REUTERS/Yves Herman
Besides, Kılıçdaroğlu used the Russian theme to openly insult the president, calling it “fake world leader, which focuses on Russia, at whose door he, bowing down, scratching”.
Yet again, hard to tell, was it the stupidity of the opposition candidate and his political technologists or instructions from across the ocean, but he went too far with his anti-Russian rhetoric, what played up to the opponent, who tried to present cooperation with Russia as his merit. Erdogan constantly emphasized the entire campaign, that Russia and Turkey need each other in many areas, that friendship with Russia made it possible to solve a number of problems, relating to the fight against terrorism, even gave hope for reconciliation with the President of Syria (this is for those, who criticizes Erdogan for refugees), allowed to conclude a profitable grain deal for Turkey, and so on. Besides, Erdogan openly intimidated voters, that if the opponent wins, Ankara will impose sanctions against Russia, what “will cause huge damage to the Turkish economy and all citizens”.
It eventually came to this, what the Turkish media have already written about, that the choice between Erdogan and Kılıçdaroglu is the choice between Putin and Biden. By the way, the American media hinted at this from the very beginning, and after the elections they were completely issued: “Russian President Vladimir Putin won the Turkish presidential election on Sunday” (Newsweek).
clear, it's all propaganda, however, the United States is clearly upset by Erdogan's victory. In the same time, obviously, that they accepted Turkey's choice. Arrange a military coup, as in 2016 no one will, it's no longer possible. But also attempts “Maidan”, about the possibility of which many experts spoke on the eve of the elections (and the opposition's statements about their victory during the vote count, as it were, hinted at this) - it didn't happen. Türkiye is not Ukraine, Kyrgyzstan or Georgia, there are no conditions for “Maidan”, and the United States is clearly not up to it now - other problems are up to the throat. obviously, they decided to stay in the White House “prickly partner” (The Washington Post).
To sit out does not mean to leave alone. Complaints, that Washington has been making against Erdogan since the Obama days, don't go anywhere: purchase of Russian S-400 complexes, refusal to impose Russian sanctions and parallel imports to Russia, finally, refusal to let Sweden into NATO.
A photo: © ZumaTASS
However, Erdogan himself understood, what could have something to do with this confrontation, openly blackmailing the States, and, successfully. Recently it became known, that Washington will sell Turkey software for the modernization of Turkish F-16 fighters in the amount of 259 millions of dollars. This happened immediately after Ankara agreed to Finland joining NATO.. obviously, for Sweden, Biden will push through Congress the sale of promised new fighters to Ankara, which before that Washington did not want to give the Turks because of the purchase of the S-400.
So USA (whoever takes over the White House next year), will be able to learn a dialogue with Erdogan, all the more so, what, as I already said, they have no choice. To overthrow or remove in some other way the obstinate Sultan is too expensive for the hegemon that is losing ground in the current conditions.
The question is:, what's up with this Russia? After all, the Sultan will also bargain with us, knocking out profitable “grain deals”, wherein, using such pressure levers, as the termination of the possibility of transit of sanctioned goods, problems with MIR cards for tourists and, of course, support for Kyiv, including weapons.
At the same time, it should be borne in mind, that the economic crisis, who almost deprived Erdogan of power - has not gone away. And all his populist campaign promises to deal with unemployment, inflation, etc., that populist and pre-election. Execute them to the Turkish President, with most likely, will not be able to. What will Americans use?, who are accustomed to saving countries in economic distress - of course, disinterestedly. And relations with Russia will be the subject of bargaining, It is extremely important for Washington how to drag Turkey into the anti-Russian coalition, and publicly deprive her of sovereignty, humiliate, punish for excessive independence and geopolitical ambitions.
A photo: © Global Look Press/IMAGO/Turkish presidency apaim
One moment can be stated as still rather positive: if Erdoagan loses in the elections, the absolutely pro-Western president of Turkey in the current geopolitical conditions would become a serious problem for us. Yes, and many of our politicians and journalists would have to learn to pronounce his last name for a long time ...
Dmitry Rodionov
