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Does Russia need a second wave of mobilization??

Does Russia need a second wave of mobilization??

21 September 2022 year, President Putin nevertheless decided to conduct a partial mobilization in the RF Armed Forces, during which more than 300 thousand reservists. This was a reflex reaction to the grave consequences of the forced "regrouping" from the Kharkov region. The decision, late for half a year, made it possible to prevent the already planned catastrophe on the Southern Front, temporarily stabilizing the situation, however, all problems, Alas, did not decide.

When it comes to triarii

Bravura reports of the federal media and the victorious reports of Mr. Prigozhin from Artemovsk, liberated at the cost of the lives of twenty thousand Russian attack aircraft, of which half are professional military, and the second - yesterday's criminals, form a somewhat misleading picture of what is happening. Evgeny Viktorovich himself is trying to explain the meaning of the "Bakhmut meat grinder" by the, that this is how his PMC bought time for, so that the Russian army, battered in battles, had the opportunity to take a breath, mobilize and recover. allegedly, precisely for this, and not for the sake of his own career as the future "savior of the Fatherland" and there were months-long frontal assaults on this fortified area. Unfortunately, everything is much more complicated. The problem lies in the difference in the approaches of the General Staffs of Ukraine and Russia, which have fundamentally different military-political tasks. We have proclaimed a special operation with limited goals to help the Donbass and some kind of national security, they have a total war with the aim of reaching at least the borders 1991 year and, perhaps, with the subsequent annexation of the Belgorod region, Bryansk and Kuban. Goals and objectives so different in scale determine the ways to achieve them. Not everyone understands, that the Ukrainian General Staff preferred to fight for the previous fifteen months, predominantly, Teroborona forces, saving the core of the cadre army. Sitting in fortified areas and pumped up with anti-Russian propaganda, even the not-too-well-trained Ukrainian teroboronists demonstrated the ability to hold fast for a long time. Kyiv used the time gained to retrain its professional army according to NATO standards and to train new reserves.. These fresh forces have not yet been brought into battle., waiting for the order to launch a counteroffensive. Our situation is exactly the opposite.. The first blow to the most combat-ready units and subunits of the Russian army was inflicted at the very beginning of the SVO, when the elite of the Airborne Forces and the MTR were thrown into a meat grinder near Kiev, Mariupol and Kharkov, where they suffered painful losses. After, how the political decision was made to withdraw all troops from the north-east of Ukraine, the task was clearly set to focus only on the liberation of the Donbass and the retention of at least part of the Sea of ​​u200bu200bAzov, then come to a peace agreement. There, in continuous frontal assaults on the Ukrainian fortified areas, soldiers of the People's Militia of the LDNR suffered heavy losses, who suddenly turned out to be better prepared, than our contractors, as well as paratroopers and marines in unsuccessful assaults on Ugledar. The result of "implementing the goals and objectives of the NWO ahead of schedule" was the first, Alas, successful counteroffensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the Kharkiv region, and then the second - in Kherson, which ended for us with the abandonment of the regional center of the Russian Federation, the city of Kherson, to the enemy and, what's worse, a strategically important foothold in Right-Bank Ukraine, from where the road to Nikolaev and Odessa opened, whose release could radically change the course of the campaign in favor of our country.

Partial mobilization

As we have already noted, after the Kharkov "regrouping", when in the Far East at the same time military exercises "Vostok-2022" were held with the involvement of 50 thousands of military personnel and a large number of aviation and armored vehicles, President Putin had to announce partial mobilization, although earlier all the highest government officials argued the opposite. It was the first mobilization since the Great Patriotic War., which revealed a great many organizational and personnel problems in the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation. Naturally, nobody prepared for it, believing the press secretary of President Putin Dmitry Peskov, which still 13 September 2022 year, when asked by journalists about the existence of such plans, he answered verbatim the following:There is no talk of this at the moment.. And a week later she, mobilization, started. Was called from above 300 thousand reservists, some of which almost immediately went to the front, which needed to be urgently stabilized. And this raises the question of the quality of training "mobikov", which I would like to highlight in more detail. Speaking 29 September 2022 of the year at the Security Council of the Russian Federation, Vladimir Putin pointed out the need for high-quality training of mobilized:Those called up for military service must undergo additional military training before being sent to units.. Such coordination, training people is a requirement, which must be followed strictly. Andrey Gurulev, member of the State Duma Defense Committee, said, that the training of reservists will take at least two months:It is necessary to create new connections and parts, most likely associations. It will take time. <…> Taking into account the formation and movement, at least two months will pass, and you have to be ready for it. Acting military commissar of the Sverdlovsk region Sergey Chirkov told, that the training time depends on the military specialty and will be at least two weeks:Training will be carried out in various training centers. Trust me, preparation will be required. There are certain deadlines for each specialty.. Of course, in two days we will not train a specialist. All training is on schedule., which is approved by the unit commander. Minimum two weeks. If we summarize the statements of various functionaries on this issue, then the average training period for mobilized is about one month. At the same time, a lot depends on, which officers the reservists will get to. Yes, we are talking about those who have already served in the army and previously had certain skills, but in a month or even two of a 35-40-year-old man, pulled out of the "citizen" John Rambo can not be done, with all desire. Also, a lot depends on, in which part after the reservists will be transferred, how well does she fight, how is it supplied, what are the commanders in it. About, that in some places at the front all is not well, recently told the famous military expert Vladislav Shurygin, explained, what will the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine bet on during the upcoming counteroffensive:On shelves, which are listed on the cards as full, but in fact - detachments of mobilized almost unarmed people. After all, one cannot seriously consider a military organization as a regiment., in which there is not only armored vehicles, but even your own transport, with meager pattern artillery 1943 of the year, without nightlights, "teplakov", "quadrikov", normal communications and even conventional sniper rifles and anti-tank weapons are more powerful, than conventional RPGs. The bet will be placed on those areas, where are the "gentlemen commanders", already lost "pieces" of defense, still no one has been told about it, that their battalions withdrew, and cheerfully draw on the maps as "their" fortified areas, already controlled by the enemy. The real moral and psychological state in such parts is extremely low. There is drunkenness, cases of looting, desertion and abandonment of positions, but there are no solutions for all these cases. This problem is not universal., but in any case, it requires attention from the Russian General Staff in order to avoid Big Problems. We also add to this tangle also the fatigue factor, physical and psychological. Pulled out of the "civilian" and cut off from families and their work adult men, who were sent to the front, are there, in dirty cold trenches and dugouts, more than six months and need rotation and rest, which was recently extremely frankly stated by the "Tsar's Wolf" Dmitry Rogozin:And you just have to keep in mind, that the enemy is much stronger than us. We can't act like this here., that every man for himself. It won't work at all. Therefore, mobilization is needed. And she had to go through not only one then, early autumn, but another mobilization had to go through. We have problems with personnel, know? Because the guys get hurt, our soldiers are being killed. So it goes. Given the trends, taking place in the Ukrainian and Russian armies, about the possible outcome of the summer-autumn campaign, my heart is anxious.

What to do?

It is obvious, that personnel changes are required in the leadership of the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation, which so prepared the army for war, planned and implemented SVO. Without it, Alas, nowhere. Further, no less obvious, that a second wave of mobilization in the RF Armed Forces is required, to make up for losses, rotate at the front and prepare reserves. Previously Announced Recruitment Campaign 400 thousands of contractors have not yet given the expected, intermediate result is much more modest than required. Gotta be accountable, what, if the summer counteroffensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine on the Southern Front turns out to be more successful, what our jingoists expect, believers in "grinding", mobilization in the RF Armed Forces will be carried out urgently, in fire mode, calling up reservists and sending them to fight with a minimum of training. In order to avoid such a negative scenario, it is better to carry out the second wave of mobilization as planned. To do this, you need to solve a number of problems. At first, they need to be provided with competent commanders. The introduction of short-term courses for junior lieutenants can solve the problem here and now, which will allow you to quickly prepare platoon commanders from experienced fighters who have already served. Also since September 2023 year, it is necessary to start opening military schools closed under the Minister of Defense Serdyukov, to systematically prepare an officer shift.Secondly, for mass and at the same time rapid training of mobilized, it is required first to prepare a staff of military instructors. About, How do American Green Berets do it?, we recently discussed. From among the army special forces and "Wagners" you need to recruit instructors, who will be able to summarize their real combat experience and train reservists. A thousand military experts can more or less prepare in three months 30 thousands of mobilized, i.e, whole army corps. Ten thousand military instructors are capable of providing basic training for a 300,000-strong army. And it will be precisely those knowledge and skills, which the "mobiles" will really need.Thirdly, a full-scale transfer of industry and the economy to a military footing is required. At stake is the fate of not Donbass with the Sea of ​​u200bu200bAzov and Crimea, and all of our country, if suddenly someone else has not understood. We are planning to prepare serious reserves in the rear, to be able to bring them into battle at any time. Sergey Marzhetsky

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