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The customs service of the Russian Federation revealed the secrets of last year

The customs service of the Russian Federation revealed the secrets of last year

The customs service of the Russian Federation revealed the secrets of last year

Last spring, the Russian Federal Customs Service announced that, which stops the publication of statistics on foreign trade of the Russian Federation in connection with the sanctions war of the West against our country. Latest data, posted on the FCS website, were for January 2022 of the year. Life for experts has become much more complicated. They had to use only "reflected light" - the customs statistics of the partner countries of the Russian Federation. But there was no longer a generalized picture of the country's foreign trade.

But here 13 March of this year, the FCS announced the publication of data on the value of exports and imports of the Russian Federation for 2022 year, also reported: «Subsequently, the value of exports and imports by commodity groups will be published monthly on the 40th day after the end of the reporting period on an accrual basis and broken down by months with updating the data of previous months of the current year». In this way, there was a return to the old life. But not really. For product groups, statistics will be, and here is the geographic structure (by country) we won't see. Besides, exports and imports will be only in value terms (used to be also in physical terms). But even then, as the saying goes, "bread" for experts.

so, I will give key indicators on the foreign trade of the Russian Federation for 2022 year. The total turnover of trade amounted to 850,5 billion dollars., What's on 8,1% exceeded 2021 of the year. At the same time, exports increased by 19,9% and made 591,5 billion dollars., and imports fell by 11,7% and equaled 259,1 billion dollars. In this way, trade surplus last year amounted to 332,4 billion dollars. This is a record figure for all the years of FCS statistics.. You can also add, that the excess of exports over imports last year amounted to 2,28 fold. This is also a record.

I'll repeat that one more time, what I wrote about earlier: The record excess of exports over imports last year is due to two main reasons: 1) rising oil prices, natural gas and food, t. it is. for those goods, which are the main ones in Russian exports; 2) contraction of imports as a result of sanctions actions by the countries of the collective West.

It was, of course, and some other factors, which led to record highs last year. for example, a number of unfriendly countries accelerated purchases of certain goods to form reserves until the introduction of sanctions bans on the import of these goods from Russia.

With a general decrease in imports in 2022 year 11,7% some product groups suffered more significantly. So, imports of land transport fell by 41,5%, electrical machines and equipment 19,1%, boilers and mechanical equipment 13,1%. T. it is. sanctions actions significantly affected import deliveries of investment goods - those, which Russia needs for import substitution.

I will add about export, that the outcome 2022 years compared to 2021 year, deliveries of products from the fuel and energy sector of the Russian Federation increased by 114,9 billion dollars. compared to the overall increase in exports by 98,3 billion. It means, that the export of all other products (non-energy exports) decreased last year by 7,4%. A clear manifestation of, that Russia, despite the sanctions war, continues to be a "pipe economy". And temporary gains in obtaining foreign exchange earnings from energy exports can unexpectedly turn into dangerous collapses.. After all, Russia does not control the situation on the world hydrocarbon market.

FCS figures on foreign trade differ significantly from the data of the Bank of Russia, which are contained in the balance of payments of the Russian Federation compiled by him. Export, according to the Bank of Russia, last year was 628,1 billion dollars., import – 345,8 billion dollars. The higher values ​​of the indicators of the Bank of Russia are explained by the fact, that they take into account trade not only in goods, but also services (The FCS keeps statistics on merchandise trade only). By subtracting, we can determine the value of Russia's trade in services: export of services amounted to 36,6 billion dollars., and the import is 86,7 billion dollars. The excess of imports of services over exports amounted to 2,36 fold. It turns out, that a large part of foreign exchange earnings, received from the export of goods, goes to pay for import services. Unfortunately, import of services has remained at an exorbitantly high level throughout the years of the existence of the Russian Federation. By my estimation, at 2021 year, imports of services by the Russian Federation amounted to 86,9 billion dollars. It turns out, that even the sanctions war of the West against Russia did not affect him last year, started in February last year (though, that commodity imports, as I noted above, decreased by 11,7%). At one time I wrote about, that behind the very high volumes of imports of services from Russia lies a banal withdrawal of money from the country (AT. Katasonov. Capital flight from Russia. - M.: Ankyl, 2002). As it seems to me, this channel of capital flight from Russia has not been completely blocked.

The Federal Customs Service has already published data on foreign trade for the first month of this year. Main figures: export – 32,94 billion dollars.; import – 22,20 billion dollars. Trade surplus - 10,74 billion dollars. The gap between exports and imports was 1,48 fold. This is significantly less than the excess, which was last year (2,28 fold). Export of oil and oil products in January amounted to 21,56 billion dollars. (65% of all exports). for comparison: in general, last year the export of oil and oil products amounted to 383,73 billion dollars. (64% of all exports). The average monthly export of oil and oil products last year was 32 billion dollars. In January of this year, this export was one third lower than the average monthly export of last year.. Foreign exchange earnings from exports decreased significantly. The dark times are not over yet, but already gone. The Bank of Russia predicts, that the current account surplus this year will be at the level 66 billion, it will be reduced to 48 billion dollars in 2024 year before 41 billion dollars in 2025 year. clear, that it will shrink, first of all, due to the reduction of the trade surplus. Scenario cannot be ruled out., that the trade surplus could disappear altogether, there will be a trade deficit. Do not wait for these "hungry" times. Russia needs to rely on domestic production, and not for the export of oil and the purchase of everything necessary on the foreign market.

Once again, I will return to the key figure of foreign trade statistics for the past year.: surplus in the balance of trade in goods amounted to 332,4 billion dollars. And what happened to this astronomical amount of foreign exchange earnings? Part of this amount, as I noted above, went to pay for import services. Moreover, part of the contracts for the purchase of services, likely, is fictitious. This is a way to withdraw money from the country.

Another part of the currency went to pay for the so-called primary and secondary income. According to the Bank of Russia, last year, the balance sheet of such income was minus 54,9 billion dollars. Wage income, rent, dividends and interest, taken out of the country. The lion's share of them – investment income (dividends and interest) foreign investors.

Further part of the currency (the biggest), which is withdrawn from the country in the form of export of capital in the form of direct, portfolio and other investments. And the word "brought out" is not quite correct.. The currency was not withdrawn from the Russian Federation for the simple reason, that she did not come here. Foreign exchange earnings from oil exports, natural gas, oil products and other resources simply settles on the accounts of foreign banks.

by the way, on the topic of such a "non-return" of export earnings, the agency Bloomberg just announced: «Russia was able to save about a third of its windfall income abroad $227 billion, received last year from the export of goods. About $80 billion. scattered across cash accounts, invested in real estate and invested abroad. "Zanachka" is a shadow reserves, byproduct of record current account surplus. The Kremlin was able to accumulate one of the largest current account surpluses in its history». At the beginning of the sanctions war against Russia, President Vladimir Putin imposed severe restrictions on the withdrawal of currency from the country, however, later the monetary authorities of Russia (Bank of Russia and Ministry of Finance) succeeded in easing such restrictions. And even the actual permission to non-refund of foreign exchange earnings from exports to the country (what was not there before). The Bloomberg article explicitly states, that foreign exchange funds withdrawn from Russia may become the object of Western sanctions: «Any new income, accumulating abroad, can make them a tempting target for Russia's adversaries, especially if the funds are controlled by the state... The fate of Russian funds abroad is in the center of increasing attention, because the supporters of Ukraine, such as Canada and Germany, put forward the idea of ​​using billions of frozen Russian assets to compensate the country and help in its reconstruction».

Now, when the FCS resumed publishing foreign trade statistics, we will receive information on a monthly basis about the surplus in the balance of Russia's commodity trade with other countries. If nothing changes in the economic policy of the Russian state, then it will be information about the value of the currency, which flows out of the country and helps the enemies of Russia.

A photo: m24.ru

The customs service of the Russian Federation revealed the secrets of last year

Valentin KATASONOV

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