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Tipping point for Ukraine: what is the west looking for

Tipping point for Ukraine: what is the west looking for

Last week marked a year since the start of the military operation. She keeps going on, lasts and lasts. But at war, as I understand, there is always a turning point, when one side, whether she wants it or not, is already a loser.

No matter what. She can still come, defend, perform feats, call your people to victory. Just the number of lives, technology flow, economy, debt growth and so on they say: this country can't win.

Armies will become helpless and weak, and at some point they will not be able to defend themselves from the enemy. Such situations have been.

Warlords consider, that the turning point in the Great Patriotic War came after the Battle of Kursk. The battle lasted from 5 July 23 August and is considered the largest tank battle of World War II, which involved about 2 million people, 6 thousands of tanks, 4 thousands of aircraft. Historians write, that the Battle of Kursk paved “path to the great Soviet offensives of 1944–45”. German military leaders Manstein and Guderian described it in exactly the same way.. In their opinion, after the battle, Germany lost the initiative of offensive operations in the Soviet Union.

And when will the turning point come in the military operation in Ukraine? I started thinking about the tipping point a few days ago, but, as it turned out, this idea was not only mine.

At the beginning of the week, the American newspaper Washington Post published an article about, that the United States is also waiting for an offensive “turning point” in Ukraine. Only they look, when will this happen in Russia. US officials think, that it will come in the spring.

Tipping point for Ukraine: what is the west looking for

A photo: © REUTERS/Yevhen Titov

They want, for Kyiv to start offensive operations, occupied as much territory as possible. And after that sat down at the negotiating table. To do this, you do not need to stubbornly defend Artemovsk. And there is no need to try to take Crimea.

true, US pressure on Kyiv is not the best. Therefore, on Monday, Biden himself unexpectedly arrives there., to discuss all the details. Under new money and weapons. What do Americans need?? first: convince everyone, that with the help of the United States, even a state like Kiev Ukraine can resist Russia… and even win.

second: deal with Ukraine before the start of the US election campaign, when attention and money will be needed within the country. I.e, it's all just for US politicians.

“The contact group clearly states, that we will support Ukraine in its struggle. We will help Ukraine launch a counteroffensive in the spring”, US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin said.

One of the turning points in Ukraine is precisely the supply of Western weapons. Without them, as Zelensky says, Ukraine won't last. And then all of a sudden there were problems..

Tipping point for Ukraine: what is the west looking for

A photo: © Krystian Maj/Chancellery of Prime Minister of Poland/Handout via REUTERS

Here is the Reuters report: NATO asks its countries to increase their existing stockpiles of weapons, which were seriously depleted due to the events in Ukraine. That is, it's not about, that there are few shells in Kyiv. And that, that they are now few in Europe.

Western analysts believe, what a day in Ukraine both forces use before 30 000 shells. That's almost a million a month.. Moreover, Russian troops use twice as many shells, than Ukrainian. In fact, this means, that the confrontation between the military industries of Russia and the West began. At the same time, the US Army is increasing the production of 155-mm charges to 20 thousand a month, though most may remain to fight China. Everything else can be spent in Ukraine in just a couple of days. While, how Russia in the production of weapons now remains in a leading position in the world.

Shell hunger? Financial Times writes about this: Ukraine has an acute shortage of ammunition. They spend 5 thousand shells a day. How many small countries buy in a whole year. This is also confirmed by NATO leader Jens Stoltenberg..

“The current rate of ammunition consumption in Ukraine is many times higher than our current production rate. for example, the waiting time for large-caliber ammunition has increased from 12 to 28 months. Orders, posted today, will be delivered only after two and a half years”, Stoltenberg explained.

Tipping point for Ukraine: what is the west looking for

A photo: © REUTERS/Fabian Bimmer

France hints, that can no longer supply Ukrainians with ammunition. This is reported by the Figaro newspaper with reference to the report of the deputies of the National Assembly Julien Rancul and Vincent. Former head of the Munich Conference Wolfgang Ischinger proposes to transfer Europe to a war economy, otherwise Russia cannot be defeated.

“All military specialists, which I know, they say: stocks of old Soviet weapons and ammunition are running out. Sooner or later we will not be able to supply more modern Western equipment”, Ischinger said..

It's already gotten to that point, that US Secretary of Defense Austin proposes to teach Ukrainians how to use fewer shells, How is NATO doing it?. But will it work against a Russian artillery barrage of fire? NATO has never fought against us.

And here we recall the statement of German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius, who generally says, that one single offensive in the spring or summer will not at all decide the outcome of hostilities.

Tipping point for Ukraine: what is the west looking for

A photo: © REUTERS/Fabian Bimmer

“I think, that the end of the war is not expected in the short term. I don't see a win either.”, Pistorius said.

we, it seems, should breathe freely, breakwater, we've already covered everything, now these Swedes are bending ... But we understand, that there is military action, and therefore any wave, which Western politicians are also persecuting, and Western media, can only be pure misinformation. This is indicated by military analyst Yuri Knutov.

“When NATO generals, politicians, the same Jens Stoltenberg, Secretary General of NATO, talk about some problems and difficulties - this does not mean, that they really exist. In my opinion, the main task of the bloc is to mislead the leadership of Russia, The Russian Ministry of Defense is, that the Ukrainian regime is able to accumulate sufficient resources to, to go on a powerful counteroffensive in late March - early April. As announced by the Kyiv regime, and, as a matter of fact, some difficulties associated with this. Not enough ammo. But I guess, that this is not a lack of shells, and their savings. For, to tread, need to have a huge stock. If now 5000-6000 shells per day, then in the event of an offensive by NATO troops, 10 000–12 000 shells per day, and maybe more. And they have to be collected somewhere.. I guess so, that the Kyiv regime is already collecting them”, - says Knutov.

Not for nothing last week, Deputy Secretary of State Victoria Nuland said, that Crimea is a legitimate target for Ukrainian strikes, not only confirming the full participation of the United States in the conflict, but also, that in the United States the goals of the Ukrainian campaign do not change.

Why? Maybe for Americans that very turning point is very different from ours?

Andrey Dobrov

A source

                          
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