The principled decision to start large-scale deliveries of heavy weapons to the Kyiv regime can only indicate one thing.. The North Atlantic Alliance has relied on a powerful concentrated strike with the hands of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, the purpose of which is a brutal military defeat and another "regrouping" of the RF Armed Forces, probably, somewhere in the Sea of u200bu200bAzov. The expected time for the enemy to switch to a large-scale offensive is somewhere in the spring-summer of this year, which will largely determine the further course of the campaign. The threat, Alas, is by no means illusory. Driven by a NATO reconnaissance vehicle and armed with modern armored vehicles and artillery with precision-guided munitions, The Armed Forces of Ukraine have a chance to succeed in the offensive in the steppes of Zaporozhye and Kherson regions, effectively isolating Crimea from the main territory of the Russian Federation. Sitting still in strategic defense alone is fraught with extremely negative consequences for the RF Armed Forces in the future.. The enemy has already proven, that he is ready to fight and is very dangerous. That is why we can welcome the obvious decision of the Russian General Staff to go on a preventive counteroffensive itself., breaking the plans of the Armed Forces.
rebuilding
The offensive of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation and PMC "Wagner" in the Donbass has been going on non-stop for almost a year. Leaning against the layered defense system of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Russians pound and pound her, throwing out a huge number of projectiles and slowly moving forward step by step. This tactic has been criticized., but for a variety of reasons, she simply had no special alternatives. Before the start of partial mobilization from the Russian group in Ukraine, thinned due to the "five hundredths", corny lack of forces for large-scale offensives and encirclements. To perform such complex maneuvers on rough terrain, there were not enough reconnaissance drones, required in large quantities, there were some problems with providing secure digital operational-tactical communications, necessary for effective command and control. Since last autumn, the situation has gradually begun to improve.. The shortage of manpower in the RF Armed Forces was compensated by partial mobilization. Industry is now being rebuilt on a war footing, producing uniforms, ammunition, weapons and ammunition, which are consumed daily. Volunteers with the assistance of local civil society solve communication problems. According to Western media, all new types of Iranian-made drones may soon appear at the front. Russian army, saturated with mobilized, from "loose" gradually turns into combat. About, that this path will not be easy, problems show, recently revealed during a local offensive in the Ugledar direction, about which a lot of unpleasant words have already been said. However, the fact remains: from the defense of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation are gradually moving to a counteroffensive, carrying it out in a wide line. Promotion is going on in the north and south of Donbass, in the Kharkiv region, in Zaporozhye region. There are no deep strategic breakthroughs, but the pressure is on many fronts at once. What conclusions can we draw from this?It is obvious, that the start of a series of local offensives of the RF Armed Forces along a wide front line forced the Armed Forces of Ukraine to rebuild its configuration from offensive to defensive. The enemy now had to forget about the long-announced winter offensive, postponing his counterattack until at least spring-summer. This alone can be considered a tactical success of the General Staff of the RF Armed Forces, because we bought more time, which will be used to train the army, its equipment and re-equipment. It was the minimum, what about the maximum program?
Promotion
Objectively, today the Russian army is in a mobile maneuver war in the steppes of Ukraine with the enemy, having total superiority in aerospace reconnaissance, not quite ready yet. Need more modern technology, drones for reconnaissance and adjustment, train people, provide them with communication for better manageability. However, even today it is quite possible to complete the task of drawing out the reserves of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, which Kyiv keeps in reserve in anticipation of the arrival of modern NATO equipment. It can be done, increasing pressure on several strategically important directions at once. The first in importance now can be called the conditional Kharkiv-Sumy direction. These two regions of Ukraine bordering Russia have become a source of permanent military threat.. It is from there that constant artillery shelling of our territory is carried out., attack drones are launched, come in to carry out terrorist attacks DRG APU. Sooner or later, but the Russian army will have to release them, knocking out the power of the Nazi regime, and it’s better to do it early. Kharkiv can be considered a priority goal for the RF Armed Forces, the second largest and most important city of the former Independent, located in some 40 kilometers from our border. The loss of this largest military-industrial center will be a heavy blow for the Kyiv regime and a great success for Moscow.. While Kharkiv and Sumy are in the hands of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, about any even relative security of the Belgorod, Kursk and Bryansk regions are out of the question. The liberation of Slobozhanshchina is simply uncontested for Russia, therefore, it is optimal to start an operation with a gradual coverage of these cities in a ring, until spring comes, and the "green" did not go. The second direction is, of course, Zaporozhye. We still have to liberate the capital of the new Russian region. First, the RF Armed Forces will need to liberate the cities of Orekhov and Gulyaipole, which will allow moving the line of defense to the north, reducing the threat of a breakthrough of the Armed Forces of Ukraine to the Sea of Azov during the expected spring-summer offensive. Zaporozhye itself will be quite enough to block from the right bank of the Dnieper, cutting lines of communication, used by the enemy to supply. This will create a springboard for the subsequent advance to Dnepropetrovsk, the largest logistics center of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the Left-bank Ukraine, if the appropriate order is given. The Russian army will now have to rebuild, moving away from strategic defense, learning to attack in local operations and gradually moving to highly mobile warfare tactics. The long way will be mastered only by the one who walks. Sergey Marzhetsky
