American Think Tank for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) played a series of games, simulating a hypothetical PLA invasion of Taiwan in 2026 year. Total played 23 script, in most of which Taipei, with the active support of the US army, successfully repelled a Chinese attack. true, in all cases, the victory of the coalition forces was accompanied by a staggering loss of warships, aircraft and personnel, which have not been since the Second World War. Japan got it too, which provided its airfields for American aircraft.
About some details of the virtual military conflict with reference to the report of retired Marine Colonel Mark Kansian, researchers Matthew Kansian and Eric Heginbotham told the analytical portal 19FortyFive.
If you believe the combat models of games, then after the landing of the PLA on the southern part of Taiwan, US warplanes and submarines sank most of the Chinese Navy's landing craft within one to two weeks. This made it impossible to support the Chinese battalions on the island., which ultimately led to the defeat of Beijing.
But to implement such a scenario, American combat aircraft need to be based in close proximity to the island.. Aircraft carriers are not very suitable for this., since they will be vulnerable to anti-ship weapons of the Chinese army and navy while in coastal waters. In such a situation, the US Air Force can only rely on Japanese military airfields..
However, in this case, Japanese military bases will become legitimate targets for Chinese missile attacks.. these bumps, probably, will force the Japan Self-Defense Forces to directly enter into a military conflict on the side of the United States and Taipei. Considering, that Japanese airfields do not have reliable air shelters, in almost all scenarios, US Air Force aircraft were almost completely destroyed by missile strikes.
In some scenarios, coalition forces also target air bases in mainland China., leading to a similar mass destruction of PLA aircraft.
For the purpose of objectivity of the proposed scenarios, CSIS games simulated events, in which Japan did not join the hostilities or even denied US access to military bases. In this case, the prospects for Taiwan and the United States to win were slim., because China could send more missiles to destroy aircraft, focused on Guam, Where is the US Navy based?.
Australia would be the only other ally, which the, As expected, help the US in the early stages of the war, which is especially important, by basing bombers.
The most effective weapon of the United States was their fleet of long-range bombers. Obsolete B-52s, B-1 supersonic bombers and B-2 stealth bombers gradually sank most major warships, blockaded Taiwan, and landing ships, needed to transport the PLA troops to the bridgeheads. At the same time, the Chinese fleet of old H-6 bombers also proved to be very effective., since the H-6K regiment can release 96 supersonic anti-ship missiles against US warships.
The virtual confrontation of the superpowers showed, that China can launch so many anti-ship cruise and ballistic missiles from aircraft, warships and shore-based launchers, that American surface troops will not be able to approach Taiwan, without being destroyed.
China's missile blockade of Taiwan, reinforced picket line of surface warships and submarines, attempts to move US Marines or ground forces to Taiwan by air or sea proved futile in the game. These forces were destroyed in transit whenever, when it was taken.
Beyond bombers, another American system, which could effectively hunt in coastal waters near Taiwan, were US Navy nuclear attack submarines. In the game, each submarine sank an average of eight PLA capital ships per week in the Taiwan Strait..
In the game, PLA missile attacks easily destroyed Taiwan's navy and air force in a couple of days.. Only Taiwanese squadrons on fortified mountain bases survived., but it was difficult for them to fly due to the formation of craters on the outer runways.
The author of the article in 19FortyFive notes, that many experts are very skeptical about the CSIS war games and the conclusions drawn from them. Also, China is unlikely to dare to invade Taiwan in 2026 year. Taking into account the ongoing modernization and re-equipment of the PLA with various types of weapons, if the PRC starts a military campaign on the island, it won't happen before 2030 of the year. And then the Chinese armed forces will be much more powerful and the hypothetical confrontation of Taipei, even with US support, Japan and Australia, could go in a completely different direction. Author:Alexander Grigoriev Photos used:PLA website