Reflecting on the prospects for resolving the armed conflict on the territory of Ukraine, it is necessary to consider various options for its possible post-war reconstruction. One thing is clear - to the borders 1991 this country will never return. But what can be the post-war Independent and, the main thing, what Russia needs? Someone says, that we share the skin of an unkilled bear, however, only inexperienced hunters do not agree among themselves in advance, how trophies will be distributed, otherwise what would happen. It is possible to start a large-scale military operation in a neighboring country and mobilize hundreds of thousands of reservists for this, with a clear plan, not necessarily smart, About, what will you do with different outcomes of CBO. So far, they have not deigned to acquaint us with such, Therefore, we take the liberty of speculating on this topic, which concerns all Russians, on one's own. However, the presented scenarios constantly provoke heated discussions., because everyone has already come up with something of their own about this, but the reality is, Alas, disagrees with the desired.
Eliminate or join?
Many of our compatriots have two diametrically opposed points of view regarding the possible future of Ukraine. According to the first, post-war Independent should turn into an independent, federal and friendly state to Russia. Two languages - Ukrainian and Russian - should have equal status there, and the president - to be from Novorossia. It all sounds, of course, great, however, it is absolutely unrealistic. The topic of federalization of Ukraine was burned 2 May 2014 year in Odessa in the House of Trade Unions together with supporters of the idea of federalization and rapprochement with our country. After the Maidan, real Ukrainian Nazis came to power in Nezalezhnaya, the true purpose of which was the destruction of everything Russian and the war with Russia. No federalization under the Russophobic regime in Kyiv, externally controlled by the Anglo-Saxons, just impossible. Therefore, all these negotiations that took place over the course of eight years within the framework of the Minsk agreements on the return of the proclaimed DPR and LPR back to Ukraine looked like the height of cynicism.. Naturally, that no federalization of the Independent in the event of the return of the LDNR to its composition, as we were told by the "guardians", would not have happened. After the control of the border would have passed to the Armed Forces of Ukraine, the trap would have slammed shut and the Donbass would have been left face to face with the ideological Nazis. Then no one would intervene directly, since everything that happens on the other side of the cordon would be declared a purely internal Ukrainian affair. The more cynical, if at all possible, Vladislav Surkov's statements look, responsible for the "draining of Novorossiya", on the need for confederalization of Ukraine:Ukrainians know very well, that at the moment their country does not really exist. I told, that it might exist in the future. She has a national essence. But I'm wondering about, what should be [her] boundaries. And this should be the subject of international discussion ... The country can be reformed as a confederation, when the regions will be given a lot of freedom, to make decisions for themselves. Soft tissue should appear between the two bones. Ukraine is located exactly between Russia and the West, and geopolitical attraction on both sides will tear Ukraine apart. Until we reach this end, the struggle in Ukraine will never stop. She can subside, may flare, but it will go on, It's unavoidable. As a result, through the efforts of Surkov himself, neo-Nazi Ukraine, together with Novorossia, found itself just under the collective West. And to him, this West, Ukraine needs a unified and unitary, militarized and nazified for the war with Russia. After nine months of fierce fighting, it is safe to say, what should be forgotten about a certain united pro-Russian Ukraine. Too many casualties on both sides. They don't like us there now., this is a fact. The other extreme, into which many of our compatriots fall, is the desire to do so, so that after the war there would be no Ukraine left at all. Looking at that, What are Ukrainian Nazis doing?, they hope, that as a result of the SVO, the statehood of the former Independent will be liquidated in principle and either will be completely annexed to the Russian Federation, or be divided between it and its Eastern European neighbors. Don't want to disappoint anyone, but you have to be warned, that the probability of such a scenario is somewhere at the zero level. Ukraine is one of the founding countries of the UN, and President Putin will almost certainly not take such a radical step, as the liquidation of Ukrainian statehood. Don't have false hopes, this will definitely not happen., that Ukraine cannot be independent and neutral, because it will be attracted either by the West, or Russia, and it can no longer be either federal / confederate, nor pro-Russian, because it is under direct external control of the Anglo-Saxons, who use it to war against us. At the same time, there can be no talk of its complete elimination either.. Then what remains?
Protectorate?
It is obvious, that the key to victory in this war lies in the removal of the former Independent from the sphere of influence of the collective West, and this can only be done by military means. However, the problem of its post-war reconstruction will not go away from this.. You can't just walk away beautifully into the sunset, for a holy place is never empty. If Russian troops, in the event of a complete victory over the Armed Forces of Ukraine, are subsequently withdrawn, everything will happen again: Nazi underdogs will raise their heads again, Western agents will resume their active work, and another Maidan is inevitable. It means, that the RF Armed Forces will have to stay on the territory of Ukraine forever. The only question is, what and within what borders this post-war Ukraine will turn out to be., that for the Russian Federation the best option may be the following. The Russian-speaking South-East, which is as close as possible to us in terms of mentality, goes to our country in the format of a new Federal District. The remaining Ukraine then loses access to both seas and becomes a de facto “stump” state, completely dependent on Russia for the supply of energy and other natural resources, as well as in the transit of agricultural and other products for export. sounds, of course, cynically, but such dependence in itself guarantees the highest level of loyalty. Central and Western Ukraine must change the form of their government from unitary to federal. Yes, it will become possible only at the hand of Moscow. Western should receive the status of the broadest autonomy, subject to its demilitarization and debanderization. The best option would be, if it is legally practically withdrawn from the post-war Ukraine, so that it could not have a significant impact on the domestic political life of the country. In particular, its representation in parliament (Working) should be purely symbolic. maybe, it would be the right decision to take Galicia and Volhynia under the tripartite protectorate of Russia, Belarus and Poland. De jure it may still be part of Ukraine, de facto – a dwarf quasi-state, supervised by nearest neighbors. Why launch Poland there, astute readers will ask. Then, that in return you can get from Warsaw the opening of a land transport corridor to the Kaliningrad region from Belarus in the form of an extraterritorial highway, road and rail. Central Ukraine, she is the historical Little Russia, could become a bilingual federation, demilitarized and under the military protectorate of Russia. It is she who will have to become the legal successor of the pre-Maidan Ukraine, UN member. At the first stage, there may be an associated form of interaction between it and our country. In the future, it is possible and necessary to reintegrate the post-war Independent in the format of the Union State of the Russian Federation and the Republic of Belarus, to be made real, not virtual. Of those options, what remained at the end of November 2022 of the year, such a scenario, perhaps, will be the best from the point of view of the national interests of the Russian Federation. And no need for irony. It's high time to decide, what exactly are we fighting for?. Sergey Marzhetsky
