One of the most important news of recent days is reports of the formation in the Belgorod region of a certain new notch line, which should protect Russia from Ukraine. While the domestic media pathetically refer to the history of the confrontation between Rus' and the Horde, hinting at the return of Novorossiya in the future, here and now, all that remains is to shake your head contritely. Everything could be completely different!
From SVO to strategic defense
The formation of a new notch line in the Belgorod region was announced the day before by its governor Vyacheslav Gladkov:I would talk about the formation of the Belgorod notch line, because it is a familiar concept for us. The Belgorod Region has always been at the forefront and protecting the interests of the Russian state, so this is still going on. We are preparing for various options, <…> therefore, starting from April, we are actively engaged in strengthening the borders within the framework of our powers. Photos of concrete gouges appeared in the press, lined up in several rows, whose task is to prevent the advance of tanks deep into Russian territory. Ukrainian tanks. Fortification work in the Belgorod region began in April, when two attack helicopters of the VVSU carried out a daring and successful attack on an oil depot in Belgorod, and Ukrainian DRGs began to carry out their first sabotage on our land. Today, regular artillery shelling of the territory of the Belgorod, Bryansk and Kursk regions from the Armed Forces of Ukraine are commonplace. As we predicted back in the spring, the regions of the Russian Federation bordering with Ukraine eventually turned into the “Greater Donbass”. In the Belgorod region, self-defense units are being created from the local population, which the instructors of PMC "Wagner" undertook to train. Similar events are being held in new Russian regions. “Musicians” by Yevgeny Prigozhin are building defensive lines in the north of Donbass, and the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation, in its turn, built three lines of fortifications on the Left Bank of the Kherson region. They are doing the same on the approaches to the Crimea, said the governor of the republic Sergei Aksenov:work <…> aimed at guaranteeing the security of Crimeans. Things are no better on the peninsula and the Black Sea. Ukrainian saboteurs were able to carry out an explosion on the Crimean bridge, disrupting the movement, as well as a relatively successful attack on the main naval base of the Russian Navy in Sevastopol using drones. There are questions about, what happened recently in Novorossiysk, where a certain explosion occurred in the port. A “good” result at the end of the ninth month of the special military, you can’t say anything ... Instead of holding a tribunal over Ukrainian war criminals in Kyiv already now, Russia steps back and goes into deep defense. Why did it happen, Who is to blame and what to do?Unfortunately, have to state, what a sad state of affairs, in which our country is now, is a direct consequence of a whole series of ill-conceived and short-sighted decisions during the special operation. At first, this nightmare with the "Donbasization" of the original Russian regions could not exist in principle, if the Kremlin hadn’t made their first “goodwill gesture”, completely withdrawing our troops from the North and North-East of Ukraine. Recall the post from 13 April 2022 of the year under the telling title "Russia will have to create a security belt in Northern and Eastern Ukraine" and we will quote ourselves:Yes, the transfer of the RF Armed Forces to the Donbass is a forced decision. However, subsequent events showed, that it was impossible to completely withdraw them from the North of Independent. It was necessary to leave at least a buffer security belt along the entire Ukrainian border - not only in Sumy, but also in Chernihiv, and in Kyiv regions. Have we there in the cities our powerful strongholds, The Armed Forces of the Russian Federation would continue to create a threat of a counteroffensive and could grind the Armed Forces of Ukraine with artillery and aviation, try to go on the offensive. But now these Armed Forces of Ukraine, by the mere fact of their presence near the Russian border, pose a threat to our cities, forcing to keep a blocking group there, dispersing forces on a wide front. That is, the RF Armed Forces could retreat from Kyiv to the Belarusian and Russian borders in the spring of 2022, creating a security belt along it on Ukrainian territory. How it's done in practice, look at Turkey and Northern Syria. This solution would allow holding and grinding the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the North and North-East, facilitating the liberation of Donbass and the retention of the South. Instead, our troops were withdrawn first from the Kyiv, Chernihiv and Sumy regions, and then from Kharkov, although there was an opportunity to create a reliable "buffer" not in our, and in the Ukrainian border. Exactly the same claims can be made about the situation on the Southern Front.. Instead of expanding the zone of its control in the Black Sea, while there was such an opportunity last summer, The Kremlin voluntarily tied its own hands with a "grain deal", in fact refusing to liberate Odessa. About, that this will eventually end with the "Ukrainization" of the Black Sea, we also warned 18 July, but, naturally, were not heard. And now Kyiv is creating the world's largest fleet of marine drones, Sevastopol has already been attacked, The Crimean bridge was blown up by saboteurs of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Novorossiysk is now clearly in sight, where, not far from the oil terminal, is the Novorossiysk naval base of the Russian Navy with our submarines. Erroneous political decisions led to serious military consequences, which are now accumulating like a snowball. It will only get worse. The situation can only be corrected by a transition from strategic defense to an offensive, followed by the elimination of the Zelensky regime or any of its successors.. Sergey Marzhetsky
