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Expropriation of Russian assets by the collective West

Expropriation of Russian assets by the collective West

Act proactively!

After 24 February, the collective West began to expropriate Russian assets, to which he is able to reach. Expropriation is conceived in two stages. First, the so-called asset freeze (Russian owners lose access to assets, can't manage them), and then the final confiscation.

Freezing work (also called arrest, or blocking) assets fairly well organized. At the initiative of Washington, the countries of the collective West established an international working group in March, which is engaged in the identification of Russian assets in different countries, coordination at the international level of freezing actions and accounting for frozen assets. First, the total amount of "frozen" assets was estimated at 300 billion dollars. It was the first production - the foreign exchange reserves of the Russian Federation. In the month of June, according to the working group, the total amount of frozen assets increased to 330 billion dollars. The working group did not release more recent estimates., but the freezing process continued.

So, in early November, a report by the Financial Sanctions Implementation Authority was published in the UK (Office of Financial Sanctions Implementation, FURY). It implies, what, is, As of September last year, Russian assets worth a total of 44,5 billion pounds (50,7 billion). And 24 February to 20 October of this year, the UK froze Russian assets for another 18,39 billion pounds (20,95 billion). The document also notes, what in 2022 year, sanctions were imposed on 1,3 thousands of Russian individuals and legal entities.

At the beginning of July this year, the European Commission announced, what's in the middle 2022 g. the EU has frozen Russian assets in the amount of 13,8 billion. In early November, the figure was updated and increased to 17 billion.

If we take into account the data on frosts in other countries of the collective West - Japan, Canada, Australia and some others, the, probably, at the beginning of November, the total amount of frozen Russian assets could be about 350 billion dollars. This became the basis for approval by some experts, that the possibilities of the collective West for further arrests of Russian property are close to exhaustion.

However, the edition Politico 18 November 2019, citing classified information from the European Commission, it reported on the EU decision to freeze Russian assets for 68 billion euros. Also, the Brussels internal document states, that already in the EU countries assets have been frozen in the amount of 33,8 billion, t. it is. twice as much, than officially announced. Of 68 billion euros for Belgium 50 billion euros from 68 billion euros.

The strange geography of frosts surprises. According to the publication Politico, 73% seized assets accounted for only one country - Belgium, whose economy occupies a rather modest place in the EU. I would not like to delve into the analysis of versions of that, what lies behind the Politico message. But I will pay attention to, that it caused a strong resonance both abroad, as well as in Russia. began to speak, what, is, the possibilities of the collective West to freeze have not been fully exhausted. Estimates of the amounts began to be announced, which can still be frozen, and then expropriate.

And here, from my point of view, the possibilities are very great. Let's go to the document, called "International Investment Position (MFA) Russian Federation", compiled by the Bank of Russia. The first part of this document, representing a table, presented foreign assets of Russia, formed as a result of the export of capital from our country. In the second part - foreign assets in the Russian economy, formed as a result of capital imports from other countries. The latest data on the MIP of the Russian Federation - on 1 January 2022 of the year. Russia's foreign assets at that moment amounted to 1.651,5 $ millions. and included the following main components (accumulated investments, million dollars.):

direct investments - 487,1;

portfolio investment – 117,4;

derivative financial instruments (MFIs) – 6,4;

other investments (loans and credits) – 410,0;

reserve assets (gold and foreign exchange reserves of the Russian Federation) – 630,6.

Half of reserve assets were frozen almost nine months ago. minus 300 billion dollars. about 1,35 trillion dollars. Minus approx. 50 billion dollars. frozen later assets of individuals and legal entities of the Russian Federation remains "non-frozen balance" in the amount 1,30 trillion dollars.

I will name the volumes of accumulated direct investment Russian origin by country (billion dollars.): Cyprus - 224,83; Austria - 27,05; The Netherlands - 25,47; Switzerland - 24,49; UK - 22,66; Jersey - 20,59; Singapore – 12,57; Ireland - 10,39; Germany - 10,03; US - 7,17 and so on. d. All the main recipients of direct investment are countries from the list of “unfriendly states”. Direct investment in friendly countries is very modest (million dollars.): Belarus - 4.876; Kazakhstan - 3.814; Armenia - 1.145; Import – 269. And in China, which we today consider our main ally, the amount of Russian accumulated direct investment is simply ridiculous - 359 $ millions.

I will name the geographical layout according to the Russian accumulated portfolio investment abroad (billion dollars.): Ireland - 25,13; US - 23,22; Ireland - 25,13; Luxembourg - 13,41; UK - 12,86; The Netherlands - 7,93; Cyprus - 6,78; Germany - 4,83; Japan - 3,09; Cayman islands - 2,85; Canada - 1,94; British Virgin Islands - 1,37; France - 1,15; Jersey - 1,05 and so on. d. All named (and many unnamed) countries and jurisdictions - from the list of "unfriendly states". But the accumulated portfolio investments of Russia in friendly countries (million dollars.): Kazakhstan - 929; Belarus - 851; Armenia - 28; Import – 0. And in China, it's just 114 $ millions.

According to my very preliminary estimates, of the “non-frozen balance” of Russian assets mentioned above, at least 90% belongs to those countries, which are on the list of "unfriendly states". In absolute terms, these countries account for approximately 1,17 trillion dollars. Round to 1 trillion dollars. This is what Russia can potentially say goodbye to, if the collective West continues its line of freezing and confiscation of Russian assets.

Also in 2014-15 gg., when the collective West began to take the first sanctions against Russia (in connection with Crimea), I already warned, that our geopolitical opponents can resort to such harsh measures, as freezing and confiscation of foreign assets of Russian origin. Cm., eg: Katasonov Valentine. Economic war against Russia and Stalinist industrialization. - M.: Algorithm, 2014. In this regard, I suggested curtailing Russia's foreign assets as vigorously as possible.. On 1 January 2013 year, the total value of these assets was 1.354.2 billion dollars. For nine years, it has not only not decreased, but, conversely, grew by almost 300 billion dollars. It is impossible to call such a line of behavior otherwise than a game of giveaway.

A reasonable question arises: why the US and its allies have not yet seized such giant assets of Russian origin? One of the most convincing: our geopolitical adversaries fear Russian retaliation. How can Russia respond? Freezing foreign assets in Russia. According to MIP RF, their sum for 1 January of this year was 1.166,6 billion dollars. Including (accumulated investments, billion dollars.): straight - 610; portfolio - 273,6; PFI - 5,8; others - 277,2. Geography of countries, where did the investments come from in Russia, very exotic. These are primarily countries and territories, which have explicit or indirect signs of offshore. Here is the list of leading countries and jurisdictions by the amount of accumulated direct investments in the Russian economy (billion dollars.): Cyprus - 183,30; Bermuda – 62,48; UK - 53,48; The Netherlands - 36,75; Ireland - 34,06; Luxembourg - 30,41; Germany - 25,42; Bahamas – 24,92; France - 23,71; Switzerland - 19,38 and so on. d.

Yet again, according to a rough estimate, about 90% of the total volume of accumulated investments fell on countries from the list of "unfriendly states".

Freezing and confiscation is easier with direct and portfolio investments. Our total accumulated direct and portfolio investments abroad amounted to 487,1 + 117,4 = 604,5 billion dollars. And their similar investments in Russia were equal to 610,1 + 273,6 = 883,7 billion dollars. It seems that the weight advantage is currently on our side. The collective West is cautious about new frosts, but he doesn't give up.

America vigorously incites its allies to new frosts. For the reason, that its US direct and portfolio investments are relatively modest. So, accumulated US direct investment in Russia amounted to only 6,21 billion dollars. (about 1 percent).

they, who professionally observe the game on the mentioned chessboard pay attention, that the collective West is acting more energetically and boldly. The position of our opponents is more intelligible. They report new frosts, are planning the next, draw up schedules of preparatory measures for the transition from frosts to confiscations. And Moscow does not submit any reports on the freezing of foreign assets, does not make any statements about possible nationalizations of foreign assets of "unfriendly states". There is still no federal law on nationalization or a nationwide program for the nationalization of foreign assets. We need to play more boldly on this chessboard, more determined and professional, than our geopolitical adversaries. Our pre-emptive moves would make it possible to avoid at least part of the expropriations of Russian assets planned by the collective West.

the, what else is "out there" and what else can be saved from confiscations, should be converted to cars, equipment, technology, gold and other physical assets, who must be located on the territory of the Russian Federation and work for its interests.

Valentin KATASONOV

A source

                          
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