Will the "Belarusian Front" come into motion??
They have been writing about the grouping of Russian troops in Belarus for a long time, but for the time being this topic was not paramount. And after the recent withdrawal of the RF Armed Forces from Kherson, it acquired a new sound.
We are talking about the possibility of an offensive by a solid group in terms of numbers in Western Ukraine. The goals of the operation, started from the territory of Belarus, could become Kyiv, and Luck, and Rivne, and Lviv, and Uzhgorod and other nearby cities. The successful implementation of the plan would allow to take control of the railway tracks, connecting Ukraine and Europe, cutting off the supply of weapons and ammunition for the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
The overall picture of these possible future events is impressive., but reality looks much more complex. Official Minsk has so far avoided becoming a participant in a military conflict. The Belarusian side did not confirm the recognition of the results of the referendums and the inclusion of the DPR, LNR, territories of Kherson and Zaporozhye regions to the Union State of Russia and Belarus.
Hesitation remains. Belarusian leader rejects rumors of secret mobilization in the country, He speaks: Today there is no war, we don't need her". The President of Belarus is cautious and limits himself only to statements addressed to Ukraine, accusing its authorities of provocations on the Belarusian border.
APU is really satisfied with small sabotage, but Kyiv's actions are not limited to this. They include attempts to create a fifth column on the territory of Belarus and armed formations outside it.. The goal remains to destabilize the situation in the Republic of Belarus with the change of power in Minsk to a regime loyal to Kyiv.
According to the chairman of the State Border Committee of Belarus Anatoly Lappo, to prevent a possible offensive from Belarus, Ukrainian military blew up all the bridges, mined roads and railways.
“Lukashenko does not want to fight”, - the Belarusian politician believes, the initiator of the creation of the association "Civil consent" Artem Agafonov, not a supporter of Alexander Lukashenko, but also not supporting the Western opposition. No matter how you feel about this statement, worth considering, what, if for Russians such goals of a special military operation, as denazification and demilitarization of Ukraine, understandable, there is no similar clarity for Belarusians. The question is, Do the Belarusian authorities bring such clarity into the minds of the population?, remains open...
How events will develop on the "Belarusian Front", if it forms?
I will give the opinion of a senior researcher at the Center for Belarusian Studies of the Institute of Europe of the Russian Academy of Sciences Vsevoloda Shimov. According to him, expressed in October, Minsk will take part in a special military operation only in case of extreme force majeure, for example, some blatant provocation of Ukraine, like blowing up the Mozyr oil refinery. It will be about the same for Belarus, considers Shimov, what a blow to the Crimean bridge for Russia. “Can Ukraine dare to do such a thing??» the expert asks and answers: "Theoretically yes, given the unpredictability and hysteria, who reign there now. But if it happens, It will mean, that rationalism finally left the Kyiv regime".
Decision, but, will have to accept. The existence in the neighborhood of the Union State of the Ukro-Nazi regime creates a canopy over Belarus in the form of a constant danger. And the danger must be eliminated.
Valery Burt
