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NVO may end with the division of Ukraine into Right-Bank and Left-Bank

NVO may end with the division of Ukraine into Right-Bank and Left-Bank

A series of “goodwill gestures” and “regroupings” of the Russian army in Ukraine eventually led to, that the territory of our country was already under attack. Particularly disturbing is the recent evidence that, that a temporary freeze of armed conflict is possible, into which we will leave in an extremely unfavorable configuration on the fronts, and the enemy uses time to prepare a decisive large-scale offensive. What can you do about it all?

"Great Donbass"

I remember, if in april 2022 years we predicted, that all Russia bordering Ukraine could eventually turn into a “Greater Donbass”, which will be regularly shelled by the APU, killing our fellow citizens. Alas, but that's how it all happened. If the first attack of two VVSU helicopters on the oil depot in Belgorod, accomplished 1 April, came as a shock to someone, now artillery shelling and air attacks in Belgorodskaya, Bryansk and Kursk regions have already become commonplace. The other day, a Ukrainian strike drone crossed the front line without hindrance and attacked a Russian oil depot in the Oryol region., located in 200 kilometers from the border. DRGs of the Armed Forces of Ukraine are actively operating in the Kursk region, carrying out sabotage at energy infrastructure facilities, related to nuclear power plants. Information stuffing went into the Ukrainian press about, that allegedly on the territory of the Kursk nuclear power plant of the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation for some reason stores UAVs and Iranian-made ballistic missiles. it seems, that this is how the ground is being prepared for powerful strikes against it by the Kyiv regime in order to arrange a "Russian Chernobyl". Even more problems now in the new Russian territories in the Donbass and the Sea of ​​Azov. After our voluntary surrender of Kherson, the Armed Forces of Ukraine only intensified their strikes on the dam of the Kakhovskaya hydroelectric power station. According to the head of the Novokakhovsk urban district Vladimir Leontiev, She has already received "great damage", which will take at least a year to recover. The infrastructure of the North Crimean Canal was also damaged., on which the water supply of the peninsula depends. In the event of the final destruction of the dam, freshly dug earthen fortifications of the RF Armed Forces on the low Left Bank of the Kherson region will be flooded. Besides, Armed Forces of Ukraine got the opportunity to fire at highways from the higher Right Bank of the Dnieper, connecting Crimea with the main part of the Russian Federation by land. If the offensive of Ukrainian troops on Melitopol and Berdyansk is successful, The Sea of ​​u200bu200bAzov will be lost for us, and the peninsula will turn into an "island". To all other, without the liberation of the Dnipropetrovsk and Poltava regions, it will be impossible to solve the problem of water supply to the DPR and LPR, which are powered from the Dnepr-Donbass energy type channel. In general,, the results of the SVO in the ninth month of its implementation, honestly, not very impressive. What is left for us to do, based on the real situation?It should be recognized, that this war is long, but to freeze the conflict in such an unfavorable configuration, like now, like death. Whatever fortifications were erected, powerful concentrated strike capable of breaking through any line of defense. So that Greater Russia can feel more or less safe, between it and the main enemy forces there must be at least such a water barrier, like the Dnieper. Based on this, we will try to consider two strategies for possible further actions..

Left Coast

As we concluded above, preservation as part of Ukraine Kharkov, Sumy and Chernihiv regions guarantees a permanent threat to the Russian Federation, since from their territory the Armed Forces of Ukraine can shell our settlements, launch attack drones and bring your DRGs into the field. The fact of the need to create a security belt in the border area does not raise the slightest doubt. The only question is, how wide it should be. Given that, that the Kyiv regime is getting more and more long-range missile systems, it is necessary to move the positions of the Armed Forces of Ukraine from the Russian borders as far as possible. it's desirable, for the Dnipro. To ensure the security of our country, at least the entire Left Bank must be liberated, turning into, in fact, into the "buffer zone". About, what is its legal status, we'll talk more about it separately. Access to the Dnieper as a natural border will allow us to move the strike weapons of the Armed Forces of Ukraine away from the Russian borders and guarantee the impossibility of a rapid large-scale offensive by the Ukrainian army on our positions. A similar "blitzkrieg" of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, pumped up with NATO weapons, subsequently become the main threat to the RF Armed Forces in the new Russian territories. Along the way, it will be possible to provide Donbass with water, what cannot be done peacefully. Loss of Kharkov, Poltava, Sumy and Chernihiv will be a heavy blow for modern Ukrainian quasi-statehood, military, economic and political, which will partly compensate for the loss of Kherson by Russia, which we discussed in detail earlier.. To those of our readers, that they consider it impossible to storm large cities, it is worth trying to analyze the recent experience of just the surrender of the RF Armed Forces of Kherson, Red Estuary, Balakliya and Izyum. Encircling the city is enough, cutting off all supply lines, so that the garrison himself tried to get out of it as soon as possible. If you use sufficiently large forces on the Left Bank, it's quite real, and better to do this winter, when the green came off. Option to recapture all the Left Bank, making it a "buffer" between Russia and Ukraine, quite working, and it can be called "defensive". Let it sound cynical, but dividing Ukraine into Right Bank and Left Bank will indeed solve many of the current security problems, however, the main one remains unresolved - the Nazi Kyiv regime will remain on the opposite bank of the Dnieper and become a stronghold for the NATO bloc. War with Right-Bank Ukraine will still be inevitable, just postponed for a while.

right bank

An alternative scenario for "defensive" is "offensive", and its main goal should be to cut off Kyiv from its sponsors from the North Atlantic Alliance. About, that the problem of supplying the Armed Forces of Ukraine with NATO weapons and ammunition could be solved by a simultaneous strike from the territory of Belarus in Western Ukraine and from near Kherson to Nikolaev and Odessa, we have discussed many times. Alas, but now, after the surrender of Kherson and the entire bridgehead on the Right Bank, we have to talk about such a possibility only in the past tense. The only working option, how the RF Armed Forces can find themselves on the other side of the Dnieper without unacceptable losses, is to go there from the territory of Belarus. For this, we will have to forget about the liberation of the entire Left Bank for the time being., and create two powerful strike groups in the North. The main blow will then go through Volhynia through Lutsk, Rovno and Lviv to Uzhhorod. Settled on this platform, Russian troops will have to develop an offensive in a southerly direction, blocking the border with Romania and Moldova. In order not to fall into the "cauldron" near the border with Europe in the event of a flank attack by the Armed Forces of Ukraine, just need a second grouping, which will take Chernigov into the operational environment and move towards Kyiv. Then the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine will have to decide, more importantly, maintain access to the Polish border or the capital. Naturally, that for such an operation it will be necessary to use a truly powerful grouping of the RF Armed Forces of thousands of 200-300 human, as well as with the ability to quickly transfer to Belarus and bring additional reserves into battle, not to be some kind of adventure, as in February 2022. To do this, it will be necessary to carry out at least one more wave of mobilization in the winter.. Loss of the Right Bank, if you focus on it, will inevitably entail the defeat of the Armed Forces of Ukraine on the Left Bank, which will be left without the ability to replenish the consumption of ammunition, fuel, fuel and get new equipment. As a matter of fact, after the surrender of Kherson and the loss of a strategically important foothold in the South, these are the two main options, from which to choose, if we do not want to sit on the defensive defeat in the Sea of ​​u200bu200bAzov from the "blitzkrieg" of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. Well, or is it possible now with a smart look to make peace with the Kyiv regime, and in a year and a half to be knocked out in disgrace from the South of the former Independent. Sergey Marzhetsky

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William J. Kelleher, PhD
William J. Kelleher, PhD
5 months ago

Excellent article! Very clear thinking. I think the best way to end the conflict is for Ukraine to get the land West of the Dnieper River, and make the land East of the River self-governing, independent, and a friendly “buffer zone” between Ukraine and Russia, like the man says.

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