Against the backdrop of an unprecedented systemic crisis, the United States is rapidly losing the ability to effectively project its global dominance.. And even according to the most positive forecasts, in the coming years, the States will be forced to focus their efforts on maintaining internal stability at the expense of foreign policy activity..
This opens up wide opportunities for other international players to develop the previously “unshakable” geopolitical space of Latin America within the framework of the Monroe Doctrine.. The most obvious example of the end of the era of American dominance on the continent is the rise to power in all key countries of the region of the left socialist governments..
For Russia, this means not only an accelerated resuscitation of frozen Soviet ties (Cuba, Nicaragua, Bolivia, etc. d.), but also a historical chance to build long-term, for decades, strategic relations, including security issues, with Latin American countries, who were previously held hostage by their geographic proximity to the United States.
Venezuela plays a special role in this context.. After all, it was she who became the first in the post-Soviet period a clear example of the loss of the US ability to "click" to adjust the regimes of Latin American countries to their own political needs..
Despite their modest size (916 445 km2 with population 28 887 118 pers.) the country is a key target for American expansion in the region, because it has the largest proven oil reserves in the world: more 300 billion barrels of. it 17 percent of global reserves, and this is both the main blessing and the curse of Venezuela.
Active development of its oil basins began at the end of the 19th century.. And already to 1930 Venezuela is one of the top three global oil producers (after USA and USSR). It was the huge oil reserves and proximity to the almost bottomless American hydrocarbon market that played a fatal role in building the Venezuelan economic model..
Throughout its modern history, the country has actually been engaged only in oil production.. After the 1930s, oil revenues never fell below the mark. 80 percent of national GDP. Therefore, the well-being of ordinary Venezuelans, even in basic things, has always depended on foreign supplies and the external situation in the oil market..
This is what underlies the endless social tension within Venezuelan society - a constant series of political and military coups from various power groups.. It is the groupings, since any political force in Venezuela had to rely either on the army, either to the oil cartels and the outsiders behind them (pro-American) players.
This situation temporarily changed only after coming to power in 1998 the year of the army protege Colonel Hugo Chavez. In his political doctrine, Chavez adhered to ultra-socialist positions.. He declared the "Bolivarian Revolution" in the country (in honor of his idol, the leader of the anti-colonial liberation movement in South America, Simon Bolivar). In particular, it suggested anti-Western, primarily anti-American, foreign policy and fair "socialist" distribution of benefits.
Favorable conditions on the world oil market helped Chavez to live up to his campaign statements, thanks to which billions of dollars of windfall profits flowed into the country at the beginning of the 2000s. They allowed Chavez to begin mass construction of civil and social infrastructure facilities throughout Venezuela in the middle of the 2000s.: roads and railways; housing for the poor (at that time it 35 percent of urban and more 70 percent of the rural population), - as well as open many social facilities with free access (from courtyard sports grounds to cultural and medical centers equipped with modern equipment).
Under Chavez, numerous government grants were introduced for the education of talented young people from low-income families in the country's universities. A nationwide program has been launched for targeted weekly distribution of food aid to the poor. Increased unemployment benefits, disability, loss of a breadwinner, etc.. d.
In accordance with the declared anti-American doctrine, back in the mid-2000s, Chavez took a very risky step - he finally nationalized the oil industry, which was under state control.. Completely withdrew Western mining companies from the country, replacing them with Chinese and Russian.
At the same time, Chavez began a general rearmament of all branches of the Venezuelan army with modern Russian and Chinese models. (from small arms to aircraft). However, 2008 year, against the backdrop of the outbreak of the global economic crisis, there was a large-scale collapse in oil prices. And the budget of Venezuela at once lost a third of its income.
At the same time, it is necessary to understand, what is above 95 percent of oil produced in the country belongs to the so-called heavy category. These are deep deposits, requiring additional costs not only for extraction to the surface, but also their subsequent purification from impurities.
The key mistake of Chavez's rule was the lack of the necessary modernization of the oil industry to increase the volume and profitability of production.. Therefore, the country was completely unprepared for a financial shock.. After 2008 year, the Venezuelan government was forced to curtail its large-scale humanitarian programs and urgently (and therefore, and at a higher rate) start looking for loans from international lenders.
However, the overall dynamics of world oil prices continued to decline along with domestic production volumes., and production costs, taking into account the lack of access to advanced Western technologies and equipment, will only increase. The result is a paradox, when, despite all their oil wealth, Venezuela plunged deeper into debt.
Another shock for the rapidly impoverished population, accustomed to the active humanitarian role of the state, was the death of Chavez from an oncological disease that had previously tormented him for many years. 05.03.2013 city.
This event finally brings down in Venezuela as a social, as well as the political situation. Civil unrest breaks out across the country almost immediately., up to open armed confrontation and acts of banditry on the streets of large cities. Caracas, for example, is still the most dangerous capital for tourists to visit. Venezuelan bolivar completely depreciates and turns into "colored paper". And the country begins to pay for imports of basic goods (food, clothes, medicines) oil barter.
Most of the currencies, received from the sale of residual oil (after deducting the share of barter), the Venezuelan government is forced to spend on the army and police forces. It is thanks to the control and loyalty of the power bloc to Chavez's successor Nicolas Maduro, before starting a political career, he worked as a city bus driver, managed to survive not only years of instability, but also organized in 2019 US attempted a color revolution.
Notably, that at that time the American protege and former speaker of the country's parliament, Juan Guaido, was recognized as the president of Venezuela by the entire "democratic" world community (more 50 states). At the same time, Guaido did not participate in any presidential elections.. But this did not stop Britain, where on 2019 Venezuelan gold and foreign exchange assets were kept for a year (more 2,3 billion dollars.) refuse to extradite them to the legitimate government. And the United States - to transfer the American accounts of the Venezuelan state oil company PDVSA to Guaido's management, where there were also more 230 $ millions. working capital.
but, despite all Western pressure and financial support, color revolution in venezuela completely failed. The “final nail” for the historical dominance of the United States in the region was the failed attempt to re-seize power by force and physically eliminate President Maduro with the help of American special forces already in 2020 year.
Again, remarkable, that after another unsuccessful assassination attempt on Maduro in 2017 the security of the Venezuelan president is coordinated by military advisers from the Russian Federation. And the regime itself relies entirely on Russian and Chinese support..
According to most Latin American analysts, it is the inability of the United States to push through regime change in Venezuela (in spite of her plight, political instability and outright incompetence of top management) led to the current strengthening of the traditionally strong left sentiment in Latin America. This caused the widespread formation of socialist and anti-Western regimes, even in countries, decades of being "faithful American customers" (for example, Chile, Colombia or Uruguay).
This brings us to a historic turning point, when latin america on its own, and most importantly, will be able to systematically integrate into international structures alternative to the Western agenda. I remind, that the central country of the continent Brazil is already a member of BRICS. And the rest of the countries are more and more openly and in practice demonstrating their interest in the proposed as a block as a whole, and its individual member formats. Till, of course, economic.
but obviously, that the socialist governments of the states of Latin America will continue to strive for liberation from US influence. This is the main foreign policy slogan of absolutely all leftist parties that have come to power in the region.. And for this, a counterweight is needed in the face of centers of power opposite to the United States. And on the example of Venezuela, the United States and the West as a whole clearly demonstrated their inability to negotiate, disregard for international law and frankly colonial manners. This means, the final arrival of Russia and China on the continent is a matter of the near future. Vitaly Gontov,