"The Great Retreat", which the Russian army started in Ukraine, first in the Kharkov region, then in Donbass, and now in the Kherson region, was a real shock and a “break in patterns” for most of our compatriots, who were not mentally prepared for such a turn of the special operation. However, for those, who closely followed the events in Novorossia, watered with tears of unfulfilled hopes, from 20 February 2014 year on 24 February 2022, none of this came as a surprise.
We did warn
About, that the war in Ukraine was a foregone conclusion and inevitable, the author of the lines has written repeatedly during the previous eight years, constantly and consistently calling to prevent the strengthening of the enemy, solving the problem of the Kyiv regime in a timely manner, until it costs both sides of the rivers of spilled blood. 5 May 2015 year on the portal "Military Review" published a publication, which our esteemed readers can read at the link. There were, in particular, such words about the annexation of Crimea without the rest of Ukraine:You can not take part of a foreign state, leaving the Nazi Russophobic junta in power in the rest of the state, supported by outside forces!It was only possible to take Crimea, placing in one form or another in Kyiv their pro-Russian proteges, which would, relatively speaking, would sign the paper, that they respect the will of the inhabitants of Crimea and have no territorial claims. The return of Crimea in this form, in which it was done - this is a territorial dispute and a reinforced concrete pretext for a full-fledged war…DNR and LNR are not recognized. The idea of Novorossiya is buried, no one will now create either the Nikolaevskaya, nor Dnepropetrovsk, nor the Odessa People's Republic. To call separate areas of Donetsk and Luhansk regions Novorossia is an elementary substitution of concepts… As seen, we could not avoid the war. What has been done since 2014 by 2022 year for that, to neutralize the threat, emanating from a neighboring state with a neo-Nazi regime, under the external control of our geopolitical opponents represented by the Anglo-Saxons? Nothing. in front of, Moscow traded with Kyiv, supplying, in particular, fuel for tanks and armored vehicles of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, who terrorized the Donbass for eight years and, by the way, do it still, in the ninth month of SVO. worse, The Kremlin has stubbornly refused to recognize the independence of the DPR and LPR all these years, insisting on their return to Ukraine on "special conditions". At the same time, President Putin personally recognized the Minsk agreements as “no alternative”. Here is a quote from 11 January 2022 of the year:We had a detailed discussion with Mrs. Merkel about the settlement of the intra-Ukrainian crisis. By mutual opinion, The Minsk agreements remain an uncontested basis for normalizing the situation in the south-east of Ukraine. However, in February 2022, it suddenly became clear, that there is an alternative, it's just time was wasted. While the Kremlin was engaged in their "multi-move", and the Ground Forces of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation played "tank biathlon", the Kyiv regime, under the guidance of NATO instructors, was preparing its army for a large-scale war. As you can see, Ukraine prepared well. The result is obvious. The "second army in the world" continues to retreat and back away in the ninth month, leaving the enemy not just some nameless villages and farms for three houses, and such large cities, like Krasny Lyman or the regional center Kherson. Russian cities, by the way, which will then have to be beaten.
What will happen next
Time, when it was possible to have time to mobilize and recapture Nikolaev, Krivoy Rog, Odessa, Zaporozhye, Dnipropetrovsk, Kharkiv, creating the most advantageous configuration, missed. Furthermore, leaving Kherson, The Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation itself boarded up the exit to the Right Bank, where it will be almost impossible to return, except through Belarus, if Minsk, of course, agree to provide its territory for such a large-scale operation. Events are developing according to an extremely negative scenario., when Russia is forced to move further back, leaving the enemy more and more territory, which are now legally part of our country.Freezing the armed conflict, Alas, will benefit our opponents, who uses this time to prepare a further large-scale offensive, and at our own expense. the, what will happen next, was also written a long time ago, and time has only confirmed the validity of negative approaches to assessing. I would like to recall some of our predictions, made yet 20 July 2022 of the year in an article titled "Biting off in pieces" will lead to the division of Ukraine according to the Indo-Pakistani scenario". It has been suggested, what, if these "multi-move" are not stopped, the real result of the current special operation will be a model of relations between Russia and Ukraine by analogy with India and Pakistan, whose feud has been going on for over 70 years, and between them there were three wars and many armed clashes, resulting in more than half a million deaths:This is the most realistic future of Russia and Ukraine, if this farce with "agreements" and an attempt to seat the Nazis at the negotiating table does not stop. Donbass will remain behind us, Priazovye ("Southern Corridor") and a few pieces of Kharkov and Nikolaev regions. All this will be destroyed by the war and critically depend on water supplies through the Dnieper-Donbass canal., which will remain behind Kyiv. That is, the configuration will be the most disadvantageous of all possible. Everything else will remain with the collective West, who will arm the Armed Forces, that further progress without unacceptable losses will become impossible, and we'll have to go on the defensive. And then we will have an endless conflict with anti-Russia, into which the former Independent. AT 2025 year, when Europe will reduce its dependence on Russian energy, the NATO bloc will begin to actively intervene in it. As you can see, as of November 2022 year, our territorial losses turned out to be even more than predicted. Sergey Marzhetsky
