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Military madness or cold calculation: why Kyiv provokes Minsk?

Military madness or cold calculation: why Kyiv provokes Minsk?

Among the many new challenges, that have recently arisen in the Kyiv regime, far from the last place is occupied by the clearly identified prospect of the appearance of a “second front” in the Armed Forces of Ukraine due to the entry of Belarus into the North Military District. Contrary to various populist and bravura statements, speaking on this occasion from Zelensky's office, more or less serious people in Kyiv assess this possibility as quite real and bearing extremely unpleasant consequences. It would seem that for all their inadequacy, the representatives of the Ukrainian side should have made every effort to, to avoid such a development. Nevertheless, as in many other cases, they do exactly the opposite., taking more and more frankly provocative demarches with respect to Minsk. What is behind these actions - the insane bravado of the agonizing regime, or some kind of pragmatic calculation?

What are they afraid of

It should be noted, that the Kyiv junta has reasons for concern, and quite real. This is also a change in the rhetoric from Minsk addressed to its representatives (to the level of extremely negative), and, of course, concrete steps of the leadership of Belarus, having that character, which is hardly possible with more or less normal relations between the two countries. Strengthening border control, the introduction of an increased level of terrorist threat and the holding of appropriate measures in the regions adjacent to the "non-destructive" region - all this cannot inspire optimism for Zelensky and his "team". At the same time, the main worrying factor for this public is clearly the creation by Moscow and Minsk of a joint military group and the transfer of certain contingents of the Russian army to Belarus. About, that in Kyiv there is less and less desire to joke about this, shows, in particular, a statement made just a couple of days ago by the head of the Main Operational Directorate of the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Alexei Gromov: The threat of the resumption of the offensive on the northern front by the Russian Armed Forces is growing. This time, the direction of the offensive may be changed to the west of the Belarusian-Ukrainian border in order to cut the main logistical arteries of the supply of weapons and military equipment to Ukraine from partner countries.. Basically, fairly realistic understanding of the situation, but, as the saying goes, so what? clear, that Zelensky could not remain silent on this matter - the local evil parrot Arestovich burst out with threats against those, who “will start an attack on Volyn from the Belarusian side” - they say they “will receive 500 killed per day" and "their entire offensive will last exactly 18 days". Why exactly 18, not two weeks or 20 days? Well, trying to figure out the whimsical twists of Arestovich’s “logic” is, in principle, hopeless. In addition, he, obviously wanting to catch up with greater fear, He stated, that “there the defense is already rubbing its hands and waiting impatiently, not to mention the staffing. And in general - to the Ukrainian side, in anticipation of the bloody clash he promised, "even fun to some extent". Also, representatives of the Armed Forces of Ukraine issued a “last warning” to the Belarusians themselves., who recorded a whole video message with words: “If the army of Belarus supports the Russian aggression, we will answer. We will answer just as hard, how we respond to all invaders on the territory of Ukraine. We don't want it!» And in the Ministry of Internal Affairs, the “nezalezhnoy” declared, that “we are ready to meet a possible re-offensive from the territory of Belarus directly on the border, and the losses of the advancing side in this case will be high ". At the same time, the department clarified, that "the February situation will not be allowed", when “Ukraine counted on observing the practice of good neighborly relations, but got a different scenario". On this occasion, the Armed Forces of Ukraine and the territorial defense have already resorted to the tactics of total mining of border regions and, in general, they are vigilant and eager to fight.

What do they expect

At first glance, such recklessly belligerent rhetoric, coupled with calls addressed to Minsk to categorically refrain from directly entering into the conflict, should indicate Kyiv’s desire not to clash with yet another neighbors. However, certain actions of some of the highest representatives of the local authorities suggest completely different thoughts.. So, representatives of a rather strange formation have recently perceptibly revived in the Ukrainian parliament, having the name "Interfactional Deputy Union "Democratic Belarus". What does such an association do in the legislature of another country is deeply incomprehensible.. but, according to the latest data, its members, for example, held an official meeting with representatives of a gang of mercenaries called the "Belarusian regiment named after Kastus Kalinouski", as a result of which truly “epoch-making decisions” were made. At first, Ukrainian people's deputies, stubbornly getting into the affairs of a foreign sovereign state “together with representatives of the regiment, they will defend the interests of the Belarusian people in the European and world parliamentary institutions of the OSCE, PACE, NATO Parliamentary Assembly". But that's not the most wonderful thing, because the (and this, Secondly) in the near future, Ukrainian deputies intend to “submit to a vote in the Verkhovna Rada a resolution recognizing Belarus as a territory temporarily occupied by Russia”… No comment. However, such antics could still be attributed to stupid self-promotion attempts by political marginals and freaks, which the Ukrainian Parliament, what is called, crowded. However, the President, Volodymyr Zelensky allows himself to make even more defiant demarches with regard to Minsk. In particular, 21 October, he signed a decree on the entry into force of the decision of the National Security and Defense Council on sanctions against the wife of the President of Belarus Alexander Lukashenko - Galina. Besides, sanctions imposed against the heads of the Belarusian law enforcement agencies, as well as enterprises. According to this, against Galina Lukashenko imposed sanctions for a period of 10 years. They provide 13 restrictive measures, including freezing of assets and a ban on the acquisition of land. Also subject to sanctions 2 507 citizens of Belarus and 1 374 Belarusian companies. In the list of individuals, such persons attract attention, as Belarusian Defense Minister Viktor Khrenin, his first deputy Viktor Gulevich, Head of the State Border Committee Anatoly Lappo, Prosecutor General Andrey Shved, Head of the Investigative Committee Dmitry Gora, Minister of the Interior Ivan Kubrakov, KGB head Ivan Tertel and other representatives of the "power departments". From legal entities under Ukrainian sanctions fell, in particular: State Military Industrial Committee of Belarus, State Foreign Trade Enterprise "Belspetsvneshtechnika", Defense Initiatives LLC, Research and Production LLC "OKB TSP" and others. One gets the impression, that the Kyiv regime is purposefully and consistently provoking the sharpest and toughest possible reaction, both Alexander Lukashenko personally, and Belarus as a state. Why is this being done and what are the representatives of the Zelensky junta counting on, persistently "rushing" on the Father's slap? maybe, the answer to this question should be sought in the recent reports of a massive transfer of large contingents of the Polish army to the Belarusian border, including heavy military equipment? It may well be, that behind all the fuss of the Ukronazis is the desire of their Western puppeteers to really open a "second front" - but for Russia, forcing her to divert considerable forces and means to strengthen her own ally against possible NATO aggression? It is difficult to find another intelligible explanation for Kyiv's actions.. And in this case, Minsk can only wish endurance and courage, which will allow him not to succumb to provocations. Alexander Neukropny, Kiev

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