The widely publicized counter-offensive of the Ukrainian armed forces by Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky (VSU) on the south, Kherson, direction started 29 August. It's been almost a month, but no one sees visible success. Compared to the Kharkiv direction, everything looks very measured. Polish analyst Marcin Gawenda in an article for the Defense resource 24 calls such a counteroffensive "creeping".
Really, no front break, Russian troops hold their positions. The blows are applied on the line in 150 kilometers, moreover, Ukrainian troops are trying to attack in several directions at once - on Kherson, to Beryslav-Kakhovka and along the Dnieper. Promotion of the Ukrainian army, if present, has a slow pace. However, the Ukrainian army suffers very heavy losses in personnel and equipment.. Even Polish authors are forced to admit this., although they clearly sympathize with Ukraine.
The main goal of the counteroffensive in the Kherson direction is the capture of Kherson itself and the destruction of Russian troops on the right bank of the Dnieper. But Ukrainian troops cannot achieve this goal.. One of their tasks in the current situation is to strike at the logistics facilities of the RF Armed Forces.. apparently, the Ukrainian command expects to deprive the Russian group of supplies, what should, in his opinion, facilitate the tasks of a further counteroffensive on Kherson.
Marcin Gavenda remarks, that the area, where Ukrainian troops are operating now, is quite unfavorable for a counteroffensive. There is a small amount of forest here., terrain open, a dense network of irrigation canals seriously complicates the possibilities for covert action, especially the transfer of a large number of equipment and personnel. Besides, the density of troops in this direction is also small, Ukraine is trying to conduct offensive operations not even in battalion-, and company tactical groups.
The result is an interesting situation.: A powerful grouping of the Armed Forces of Ukraine has been assembled in the Kherson direction, but she does not have enough operational reserves, cannot act quickly and effectively. Gavenda considers, that forces, concentrated by Kyiv in this direction, too small for a real front breakthrough.
Russian Armed Forces, in its turn, well organized defense of the Kherson direction. A large number of troops are concentrated here - tank, motorized rifle, air assault and artillery units. Cannon and rocket artillery regularly shell the attacking units of the Ukrainian army, leading to big losses. The presence of many wounded in the hospitals of the Nikolaev region is recognized even by Ukrainian sources.
Gavenda also draws attention to active unmanned reconnaissance from the Russian side by reconnaissance UAVs.. Only 2 September, according to the Ukrainian side, Russian drones have made at least 30 flights in this direction.
Consequently, Russian command has a good idea about, what are the advancing parts, and maybe, based on this information, build a defense. Finally, do not forget about the advantage of Russia in the air. Aviation also plays a big role in repelling any attempts by Ukrainian troops to counterattack in this direction..
Therefore, now the most important tasks for the Armed Forces of Ukraine will be to undermine the supply and logistics system of the Russian army.. But it's getting harder to do so. Gavenda, expected, does not write about, what can expect Ukraine after the recognition of the Kherson region as part of the Russian Federation, nor does it mention the likely consequences of the transfer of new reserves of the Russian Armed Forces to the region, replenished through partial mobilization. Author:Ilya Polonsky