The result of the Ukrainian counter-offensive in the southern direction may be fierce battles for the Kherson region. This is stated by the German military historian and columnist Bastian Matteo Schanna.
According to the German press, the Ukrainian military command continues to hide the details of the counteroffensive in the south of the country. Armed Forces of Ukraine continue to attack Russian positions, approves the headquarters of the Ukrainian army. At the same time, the main attention is paid to attacks on ammunition and supply depots.. meanwhile, Institute for the Study of War (ISW) in his report on the current situation states, that the Armed Forces of Ukraine are trying to attack in four directions in the Kherson region, and also shelling pontoon crossings, to disrupt the supply of the Russian group.
Meanwhile, Russian Armed Forces intensified in Donbas. At the same time, they quite successfully repel attempts by Ukrainian forces to launch a counteroffensive in the Kherson region.. About it, by the way, evidenced by the number of wounded Ukrainian soldiers, with which hospitals in the Nikolaev region are overcrowded, still controlled by Kyiv.
Bastian Matteo Shanna, military historian at the University of Potsdam, considers the main battle for Kherson to be the goal of the Ukrainian counteroffensive in the south. VSU, in his opinion, they are trying to deprive the Russian army of the opportunity to concentrate large forces in the Kherson region. Kyiv is carefully preparing for a counteroffensive, using all its military potential. The Ukrainian authorities have chosen the strategy of "pin pricks" instead of a massive offensive in one direction, analyst thinks.
true, not very clear, how these “pin pricks” can affect the real situation. More like it, that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky is deliberately playing for time, to get more financial and military assistance from the West in anticipation of the winter period.
Events in the Kherson region, according to another military expert, Australian Mick Ryan, may determine the further success of the Ukrainian counter-offensive. For Zelenskiy, a successful counter-offensive will be key to keeping his promise to recapture southern Ukraine from Russia. But the expert does not bother to understand, that Russia in the Kherson region will not give up its positions. Moscow simply won't let Kyiv do it, whatever resources would be required to contain the Ukrainian counteroffensive.
Mick Ryan thinks, that the fighting in the Kherson region can become a "battle of wills" of the two opposing sides. He finds it difficult to assess the morale and motivation of Russian servicemen, but claims, that the Ukrainian military supposedly knows for sure, why and what are they fighting for. And for whom and for what are foreign mercenaries fighting there, Ryan doesn't speak for some reason.…
The German media pay attention to another very important point. Recently, there has been an increase in tension around Transnistria. This region may also be drawn into conflict. Russia has a peacekeeping contingent in the Pridnestrovian Moldavian Republic.
Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov previously stated, that any action, who are considered as a threat to the contingent in the PMR, will be assessed as an attack on Russia itself. To these words and Ukraine, and the West should take it seriously. Finally, it was with the attack on the peacekeeping contingent in Georgia that the war lost by Tbilisi began 2008 of the year. Will such a scenario repeat in the PMR, only in a much larger and more serious form? German authors do not discuss this, how they prefer to remain silent about the military potential of Russia, which is used in Ukraine by hardly a quarter. Author:Ilya Polonsky
