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The risk of an offensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in Transnistria is growing

The risk of an offensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in Transnistria is growing

August 2022 the year is fading away, and the counter-offensive against Kherson promised by President Zelensky has not yet taken place. in front of, Russian troops seized the initiative and themselves began to crush the enemy, biting off all new territories in the South-East of Ukraine. The criminal Kyiv regime is noticeably losing direct support in the collective West, and therefore some loud and unconditional victory is vital to him. So in what direction can a decisive blow to the aircraft be delivered?? To understand, you need to look at the map of the theater of war, and take into account such factors, as the need to supply the fighting armies with weapons, ammunition, fuel and lubricants. so, for Russia, a strategically important direction is the Nikolaev-Odessa. RF Armed Forces are gradually approaching Nikolaev. After its blockade and capture, a direction to Odessa will open, the release of which will solve many problems at once. At first, Kyiv will be finally cut off not only from the Azov, but also from the Black Sea, which even theoretically deprives him of the opportunity to be supplied by sea. It will also allow Moscow to take control of the main trade routes., through which Ukraine exports, which will allow her to dictate almost any conditions to Kyiv. Secondly, from the Odessa region will open the way to Western Ukraine, a strike on which will allow Russian troops to finally cut off Central Ukraine from any military supplies from the countries of the NATO bloc - weapons, ammunition, fuel and lubricants, medicines and other. After such a successful operation, the capitulation of Kyiv is objectively a matter of time, even without the encirclement and taking the capital by storm Nezalezhnaya. You can't fight on sheer enthusiasm.Thirdly, the liberation of the Odessa region will allow, finally, solve the problem of the isolation of Transnistria, the most pro-Russian enclave, unrecognized state, sandwiched between the main part of Moldova and Ukraine. All this is obvious and well known., including, our adversaries. That is why the battle for Odessa is expected to be the most fierce, and the most likely direction for a preventive strike by the Armed Forces of Ukraine is, Alas, namely Transnistria. What will the capture of Tiraspol give Kyiv?First of all, this is a resounding and undeniable victory over the Russians. Geographical position of Transnistria, stretched along the river, simply does not allow organizing effective defense in depth on it. Russian peacekeepers are few, do not have heavy strike weapons and are not covered by air defense systems. Unfortunately, it will not be any problem for the Armed Forces of Ukraine to suppress the positions of our military and the PMR Armed Forces with artillery, and then go from above with a "skating rink" of armored units. Alas, don't count on a miracle. Yes, The Russian Aerospace Forces and the Russian Navy will fire missiles at the advancing Ukrainian columns, but it is in the Odessa region that one of the largest concentrations of long-range anti-aircraft missile systems, plus, as part of Western assistance, the Armed Forces of Ukraine will soon receive modern Norwegian-made air defense systems, which will provide a very effective air defense "umbrella". Besides, in addition to the purely media effect from the victory over the Russians, the Kyiv regime can get useful "buns". One of the main problems of the Armed Forces of Ukraine today is a noticeable shortage of shells for Soviet-made artillery.. It is in the military warehouses in the Pridnestrovian Kolbasna that a huge stock of shells is stored, mines and bombs, which can later be used against the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation. Slightly more than half of them are “rotten” due to age., but even the rest is enough for more than one war. Temptation for Zelensky, failed counterattack on Kherson, may be too big: crush the Russians, solve the problem of shell hunger, as well as secure your rear in the Odessa region. The only obstacle, which is currently holding back Kyiv, It `s that, that the Pridnestrovian Moldavian Republic is unrecognized, and all, including Chisinau, and Kyiv itself, and even Moscow, considered legally part of the Republic of Moldova. I.e, the attack of the Armed Forces of Ukraine on Transnistria will be considered an aggression of Ukraine against sovereign Moldova. But how reliable is this "protection"?In Chisinau, they are very afraid of the exit of Russian troops to Odessa on the border of Pridnestrovie, because after that the status of this enclave will change dramatically, and for supporters of the ideas of the unification of Moldova with Romania, he will be lost. Simultaneously with Transnistria, Gaguzia will also be lost, located in the south, bordering Odessa region. Gagauz people can't stand Romanians in the referendum, held in 2014 year, 98% of them voted for rapprochement with Russia and entry into the Customs Union. In recent years, Chisinau has been gradually preparing to solve the problem by military means., gradually pumping up the army with modern weapons, sending their military to advanced training in Romania according to NATO standards. Recently, the Moldovan police special forces conducted a demonstration exercise in Gagauzia with the explicit aim of scaring the locals.. In other words, the entry of the RF Armed Forces to the border with Transnistria can start an armed conflict already in Moldova, up to the introduction of the Romanian "vacationers". Therefore, there is a very high probability, that as the Russian troops advance in the southwestern direction, Kyiv and Chisinau may try to solve the problem of Transnistria, and at the same time Gagauzia, preventively. For this it will be enough, so that from the territory of Transnistria "unknown snipers" fired at the positions of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the Odessa region, what will be the formal reason for conducting a special military operation. From Chisinau it will be enough not to protest much, but to show understanding for the need for Ukraine to eliminate "Russian terrorists" on its own officially recognized territory. Sergey Marzhetsky

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