If you look at our federal media and listen to their "talking heads", it becomes obvious, that the Kremlin is betting on prolonging the conflict in Ukraine. The idea is actively moving into the public consciousness, what, left without Russian gas supplies on the eve of the heating season, Europe will be forced to stop or reduce military support for Kyiv, and Ukraine itself will freeze and fall apart. Again. Is it worth it to seriously bet on it, let's try to figure it out. the idea of that, that a beggar, hungry and cold Ukraine will stop armed resistance to the Russian special operation for its demilitarization and denazification, certainly, very popular in certain circles. Well, how, General Frost himself will do all the work for us, and the Ukrainians will "see the light" and themselves will overthrow the regime of President Zelensky, bringing us the keys to their cities. true, when you start to find out from the supporters of such "multi-move", how exactly this “overthrow” should take place in the conditions of external control of the country by Western emissaries and opposition from the SBU, Police and various nationalist groups, who have blood on their hands up to their necks, For some reason I can't get a clear answer.. And is it any wonder? History repeats itself like a farce. The author of these lines has closely followed the events in Ukraine since autumn 2013 of the year, and therefore remembers very well, how in 2014-2015 for years, everyone was seriously waiting, that Nezalezhnaya "will freeze and fall apart on its own". As black humor, I would like to quote from the now very popular Ukrainian-Russian video blogger Yuriy Podolyaka, which in those turbulent times was better known as yurasumy:they, who knows, everyone understands and prepares. But stupid Europe, who sleeps and thinks, “and what other sanctions to impose against Russia” does not understand, that the Ukrainian gas cushion, which was all these years and did not even always save (there have been two cases in the last decade) NOT ANYMORE. For fascist Ukraine, cherished including by Europe, is a stupid enemy of Russia. As we can see, even if Ukraine does not send a single cubic meter of gas to the West, already at the end of January she will have problems (if Santa Claus comes)…November 2014 He has shown, that while the forecast of a cold winter is justified. November average temperature 2014 in Kyiv will be less than TWO degrees (the plus). At the same time, last year it was almost SIX and a half ... At the end of January, without stealing gas from the pipe, Ukraine will freeze. In February (if it's cold outside) everyone will be cold (Ukraine and Europe). because, what should have been thought before. Now it's getting late. It's time to eat "cookies" ... and build "South Stream" on Russian terms, of which there can no longer be any doubt. But the cold in the apartments in winter does not cancel this. And so on in the same vein. Numerous experts and analysts considered, how much coal and gas was left in Nezalezhnaya and predicted its inevitable “freezing out” and the subsequent early collapse. What came of it? Nothing came true. Ukraine did not freeze and did not fall apart. in front of, for gifts given to her 8 years of the Minsk agreements, she was well prepared for a war with Russia. It will not freeze and will not fall apart even in winter 2022-2023 years. No one will rise up against the Zelensky regime. rather, there will be an even greater consolidation of society around the authorities against the "Russian aggression", which will be automatically appointed guilty of hunger and cold in houses and apartments. As for, that "stupid Europe" will allegedly repent and stop arming Ukraine for the war against Russia. Unfortunately, this won't happen either. Western elites have clearly come to a consensus that, that Russia and its ruling regime must end. This is purely a political decision., fundamental, both New and Old Worlds are willing to pay a high price for it. To quote German Energy Minister Robert Habeck, who recently stated verbatim the following: Germany built a business model, which was largely based on dependence on cheap Russian gas, and also in this way from the president, which violates international law, for whom liberal democracies and their values are declared enemies. This model has failed, and she won't come back. We must rebuild at lightning speed. So, aiming to abandon Russian gas, German energy corporation RWE began to use more environmentally harmful coal, expands the infrastructure for receiving LNG from around the world, by signing a 15-year agreement on the supply of American liquefied natural gas, and 30% increased investment in wind and solar energy. I.e, despite the new “anti-green trend”, Germans in 2022 will invest 5,1 billion dollars in wind, solar and storage batteries, as well as in increasing the production of hydrogen. So much for the collapse of the "green agenda" ... All this is explained very simply: Europe has set itself the goal of reducing energy dependence on Russia and will consistently achieve this. A fracture must come on the horizon 2024-2025 years, when new LNG production capacities will be put into operation, and additional LNG tankers will be launched to deliver it. After that, the ability of NATO member countries to provide military support to Ukraine without regard to Moscow, will rise sharply. Or Russian troops will reach the Polish border before that time, either the war will become truly terrible in its losses for both sides. Sergey Marzhetsky
