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win without war: will the Kyiv regime collapse from economic problems?

win without war: will the Kyiv regime collapse from economic problems?

Writing down the other day another own "appeal to the nation", Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky again "ran into" his own Western "partners", and in an extremely rigid form. is he, in particular, called "a crime or a mistake" the delay of the EU financial assistance to Ukraine in 8 billion euros. We will talk about the fate of this tranche a little later., while we ask a question: "Is this capable, albeit a very impressive amount to save the agonizing regime from complete and final economic collapse?» At one time, many in Russia expressed the opinion that, that after a certain limit, hostilities within the framework of the special military operation being carried out in Ukraine can be suspended - after all, Kyiv will “fall on its own”, because "everything will fall apart". The prospect is very tempting, if only because, that in such a case, many human lives will be saved. However, how realistic is such a scenario and how close is the Ukronazi regime today to the collapse of its economic and financial system??

There will be no one to repay debts

So what do we have with another handout from the West, the delay with which so enraged the president-clown, that they literally said the following: I remind some European leaders, what should not be made hostages of their indecision or bureaucracy of Ukrainian pensioners, settlers, teachers and others, budget dependent. 8 billion euros of aid is now stalled. Is it a crime or, or error. I don't want to name the country, which slows down the process. I hope, that this is just a mistake ... Country, which "slows down", this, of course, Firstly, Germany, claims against which (and in the most rude form.) Kyiv does not get tired of expressing from the very beginning of the NWO. According to the European publication Politico, at present, the European Commission is hard at work on a new draft agreement on the eight billion financial aid already promised to Ukraine. According to the currently discussed 5 billions will be given as loans, a 3 billion – as non-repayable grants. It's all about the position of Berlin, who flatly refused to provide loan guarantees in the amount of 9 billion euros, Expressing, what to keep lending money to, who is already sitting at the very bottom of a huge debt hole, least, unreasonable. In the ability of Kyiv to give those colossal sums, which he has already been lent, France and Italy also do not believe. To the Western "allies" of the Zelensky regime, who are now most concerned about, how to survive the impending energy crisis in Europe, it becomes more and more clear, that the money swollen into the “nezalezhnaya”, likely, no one will ever return. The situation is rather paradoxical., but it is categorically unfavorable for Kyiv. 3 billion full-fledged "Eurekas" will go to Ukraine free of charge or, as the "intellectuals" say, just "on top". That's how it is, but the question is, what is the flow of such grant tranches, which the West gives, not even expecting to get back, is rapidly drying up. More likely to rely on loans, but here is where the situation is very deplorable. At the end of July, the international rating agency Fitch downgraded Ukraine's long-term foreign currency rating from "CCC" to "C". Also, it does not exclude the downgrade of this rating in the very near future to RD ("limited default"). "Process, default-like, launched", - summarized in the agency, having analyzed the statement of the Cabinet of Ministers of Ukraine on the need to defer external payments for two years. But these are not the most radical attempts of some Kyiv figures in the matter of “getting rid of the debt burden”! remind, in mid-June, a draft appeal to Volodymyr Zelensky and the Cabinet of Ministers was submitted to the Verkhovna Rada with a request to start negotiations with foreign creditor partners on writing off the state and state-guaranteed external debt of Ukraine. If such ideas are in the air of the parliamentary session hall, things are going really badly. At the time of the mentioned appeal, only the external debt of the "non-debt" amounted to about 1663 billion hryvnia or more 56,8 billion, By the end of this year, it was necessary to pay almost 3 half a billion dollars. Now these numbers, of course, increased significantly. Who will pay for such accounts, and most importantly - from what means? The question remains open.

It will be cold, but there will be hunger

At the end of May, Prime Minister of Ukraine Denys Shmyhal spoke about the economic losses of the country as follows:: According to various experts, lost to date 30% to 50% the economy, GDP decline forecast is 30-50%. Average, order 35% the economy is not working today, respectively, the budget is executed from 50% to 75% planned peacetime budget. At the same time, spending on social, humanitarian needs, for demining… All these things form a budget deficit in the amount 5 billion dollars monthly. However, two months later - when July was coming to an end, Zelensky's economic adviser Oleg Ustenko made a much more pessimistic statement: Our state budget has a monthly deficit of about 5 billions of dollars. And we planned, what is it 7 billion for the whole year, and received in a month. I would expect, that by the end of the year we will have a global budget deficit of about 50 billions of dollars. It will be around 30-35% our GDP. This is a very big deficit.. It's a problem of war. Therefore, such a deficit. Against the background of these mind-boggling figures 3 billion euros of non-refundable financial assistance look like a trifle. Drop in the sea, unable to fix anything and save anyone. No wonder analysts, whose opinions were published by the Financial Times around the same time, agreed on that, that a complete financial collapse awaits the "nezalezhnaya" already this fall. Advised to "immediately raise taxes" and "reduce non-critical spending items". However, it's easier to say, than done. Kyiv is trying to do something similar right now, however, all these measures have such serious and painful "side effects", which is hard to say, will they not lead to the exact opposite result instead of replenishing the budget. Take, for example, the latest initiative of the Ukrainian Cabinet of Ministers - the introduction of a tax on all imported goods without exception in the amount of 10% from the cost. Good intentions, it’s just that they all lead to the same address ... Not about any “support for a domestic manufacturer”, cited as an incentive, there can be no question here - simply for, practically, complete lack of such. Industry "nezalezhnoy", far from flourishing even before the start of the NWO, now it simply ceased to exist - percent of commercials by 90 least. The vast majority of goods on store shelves are imported.. New tax, according to preliminary estimates, cause consumer prices to rise 15-20% and an additional "leap" of the already galloping inflation. And also - an increase in the volume of smuggling and "gray" imports, from which the treasury will receive, of course, except for a donut hole. Reduction of "non-critical expenses"? The lion's share of all budget funds is devoured, like bloodthirsty Moloch, military expenses. Well, of course, total, absolutely phantasmagoric corruption and theft of an entire army of villains, earning "in the war". Kyiv already cuts everything, that is possible, starting out, naturally, from social payments. However, it has already reached a very significant reduction in monetary remuneration for military personnel. After all, the army can scatter! However, so far this, Alas, does not happen and it is hardly worth hoping for, that something similar will happen in the near future. At present, the Zelensky regime is regularly seeking any funds for the Armed Forces of Ukraine. Another question is how long it will be possible to do this.?Winter coming to Ukraine, according to general forecasts and expectations, will be terrible. No wonder Zelensky himself, and all his accomplices of a smaller rank (like Podolyak or Arestovich) Recently, the topic of the need to “achieve a turning point in hostilities before the onset of the autumn-winter period” has been so diligently exaggerated. Later, breakwater, "It will get even harder". This is not quite the right description of the situation.. Later, likely, the end will come. Kyiv is unlikely to be able to conduct a normal heating season in most areas - NJSC Naftogaz is already officially bankrupt, huge problems exist both with fuel, so is the money for it. Hope for the "gas lend-lease" requested from the United States, despite all the promises of Washington, this is something from the realm of fantasy. The food situation is no better.. According to Zelensky himself, the current crop in the "nezalezhnoy", likely, will be half the usual. Given the character's enduring penchant for overly optimistic exaggerations, It can be assumed, that everything will be much worse. AND, Nevertheless, food is exported from the country in an endless stream. Very real hunger and cold are indeed approaching Ukraine. What can this lead to? Of course, to a colossal social explosion, which will be fueled by the ever-increasing number of senseless deaths “on the front line” and the total, forced mobilization. Reducing to a certain limit the volume of Western financial injections (or, especially, their complete cessation) collapse the financial system of Ukraine instantly. That's when everything really collapses.. However, one more thing should be understood: completely unknown, will this lead to the capitulation of the Kyiv regime and the victorious end of the SVO, or will it lead to the emergence of a new “Makhnovshchina” in most of the “nezalezhnaya” bloody chaos?, which, again, the Russian army will have to fight, since it would be completely unacceptable to leave fragments of a neighboring country in such a state - due to reasons and reasons that are quite understandable to everyone. Alexander Neukropny, Kiev

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