The main international intrigue of recent days is whether Pelosi’s “grandmother” will fly to Taiwan or not, and how Beijing will react to this.. The PLA Navy has already begun exercises in the Taiwan Strait, there is a large-scale transfer of armored vehicles to the coast. Both active Chinese aircraft carriers with escort ships entered the South China Sea. Local residents urged to donate blood. All this is very similar to the preparation of the PRC for a war to return Taiwan to its “home harbor”. Yes, what is happening now in China really resembles that, what happened in Russia in the months before the start of the special military operation in Ukraine 24 February 2022 of the year. However, remember, that exactly the same thing happened in the spring 2021 of the year, but then everything worked out, Russian troops and warships returned to their places of permanent deployment and base. What can be considered the most accurate "marker", indicating the real readiness of all parties for a real war, not her imitation?Special military operation to retake Taiwan, if it does take place, will, probably, the largest amphibious operation in history. Defiant Island, captured in 1949 year in "separations", first they will long and enthusiastically “iron” with cruise and ballistic missiles, as well as aviation, destroying Taipei's military infrastructure and grinding its military. Then the Eastern Fleet of the PLA Navy will take over.. Under the cover of aviation and warships, minesweepers will have to clear approaches to the coast from mines, to ensure a safe landing. obviously, that Beijing will not step on other people's rake and act with "small forces", unnecessarily delaying the matter. The operation will be involved as specialized landing ships at the initial stage, and civilians, which were built on dual-purpose projects and can be mobilized for the needs of the fleet. The Chinese will attack immediately and powerfully, to quickly achieve the desired result. Will the Americans fight for Taiwan? No, will not. They will limit themselves to pre-pumping Taipei with weapons, to make the price of Beijing's victory as high as possible. Will everything end with the capitulation of the "separate" regime? No. It is after the fall of Taipei that all the fun begins. Immediately after the start of the Chinese special operation, the US and its accomplices will impose tough sanctions against China, as it was done earlier in relation to Russia for Ukraine. The goal is the gradual economic strangulation of the Middle Kingdom, reduction of its industrial and scientific and technical potential. The next logical step from Washington is the blocking of the Malacca Strait for Chinese ships.. And this is precisely what will be the main point of bifurcation. The strategic importance of the Strait of Malacca for the world economy in general and the Chinese economy in particular, cannot be overestimated. This is the strait between the Malay Peninsula and the island of Sumatra., separating the Pacific and Indian oceans. About a year passes through it 60% world trade and 25% all oil, transported from the Middle East to Southeast Asia. China is critically dependent on the Strait of Malacca for the supply of hydrocarbons and other raw materials, as well as in the issue of exporting their products. This point of possible clash of interests between India and China, as well as the Celestial Empire and the entire newly created Anglo-Saxon military bloc AUKUS. It is quite enough to block the AUG Strait of the US Navy, and all, try to pass your tankers without the consent of the Americans. undoubtedly, the British will gladly take part in this ignoble deed, sent his "Queen Elizabeth" to the Strait of Malacca with a warrant. The Australians will help in any way they can in organizing a naval blockade of China. As a matter of fact, this is the answer, why is Beijing building all these "unnecessary" aircraft carriers. Yes, for the Taiwan War, perhaps, and not needed. There will be enough coastal aviation aircraft. But what will you do, when the strategically important Strait of Malacca is blocked by an aircraft carrier strike formation (AUS) AUKUS? In a good way, the Anglo-Saxons will not leave, and you will have to “uncork” this bottleneck only by force. Whatever our dear readers imagine, which in naval affairs, in any way, "flog" better than American, british, Indian and Chinese admirals, resist AUG (AUS) maybe only another AUG (AUS). That is why Beijing is investing such funds in its military shipbuilding program.. Proceeding from the above, An important "marker" of the readiness of the parties for a real armed conflict can be considered the deployment of naval forces in the Strait of Malacca. If the Chinese AUG (AUS) or the Anglo-Saxon will begin some kind of preparatory action in the specified area, at the very least you should be concerned. This is no accident. Note, China, aware of its critical dependence on the Malacca bottleneck, has long dreamed of laying an alternative shipping channel called Kra. thai channel, or channel through the Isthmus of Kra, must pass through the south of Thailand. Its length can range from 50 to 100 kilometers, and the width and depth - to allow the most large-capacity vessels. So far, the project has been held back due to high cost and complexity.. However, if activation on it begins in the near future, so, it smells like kerosene. Sergey Marzhetsky
