As it appears, The North Atlantic Alliance will soon be replenished with two new members, Finland and Sweden. This event will be extremely unpleasant., since it will create a lot of new problems for Russia in addition to the existing ones. How should Moscow react to the decision of Helsinki and Stockholm? If you look at the domestic press on this issue, then noticeably, that the comments of numerous military experts are aimed at, to try to calm a worried public. allegedly, not so damn scary, as he is painted. Only two more potential targets for the RF Ministry of Defense. However, it's really not funny at all..
Threat from the North
Formally, this threat is not so great.. The Finnish Self-Defense Forces have a total of 12 thousands of military personnel and 22 thousands of conscripts. The ground forces are armed with hundreds of German Leopard tanks., more in storage, Air Force - American F-18 / A fighter-bombers and British-made Hawker Siddeley Hawk attack aircraft. The Finnish Navy is small and represented, basically, minelayers, minesweepers, patrol ships and boats. In Sweden, the Armed Forces collectively comprise 30 thousands of people. Ground forces are armed 120 German tanks "Leopard", 340 BMP Strf 9040, 48 self-propelled 155-mm howitzers "Archer", BBC – JAS fighter-bombers 39 Gripen made in Sweden, as well as Italian attack helicopters Austra Westland AW109. Royal Navy represented 9 corvettes and 6 diesel-electric submarines. At first sight, power is not so great, but this is only for the first. It is Finland that poses the greatest threat to Russia., due to the presence of a common border with a length 1271,8 km, proximity to the second largest Russian metropolis of St. Petersburg, as well as the ability to block the exit from the Gulf of Finland for ships of the Baltic Fleet. And this is a very serious challenge for our country..At first, do not forget, that the Finnish Self-Defense Forces are small only in peacetime. Helsinki built its army according to NATO standards, and with a population of less than 5,5 million people served in it 80% men. For evading military or alternative service in Finland, you can really “sit down” for six months. In the event of war, the size of the Armed Forces can easily be brought up to 280 thousand. for comparison, this figure exactly corresponds to the number of all the Ground Forces of the Russian Federation, which is also 280 thousand (as of 2021 year). And it matters a lot more, since almost all the Russian Ground Forces, contractors, are now involved in a special operation in Ukraine, which doesn't know when it will end.. Secondly, Helsinki ordered from USA 64 fifth generation fighter F-35A, as well as a party from 120 air-to-ground missiles AGM-158 JASSM, designed to destroy critical, mobile and stationary, goals. Thereby, The Finnish Air Force will be able to pose a real danger to the entire North-West of Russia: St. Petersburg and the Kaliningrad region with our Baltic Fleet and even the Northern Fleet of the Russian Federation. By the way, "stealth" F-35A fighters are potentially carriers of nuclear weapons. After Finland joins NATO, this will acquire a completely new strategic importance for the security of the entire region..Thirdly, despite the small number and "mosquito", The Finnish Navy poses a real threat to the Baltic Fleet of the Russian Federation. As we detailed earlier, 6 minelayers and 13 minesweepers, and 8 fast missile boats, performing fire support functions, can easily block the exit from the Gulf of Finland for Russian ships. If before our problem was only Estonia, armed with naval mines and anti-ship missiles, on the other side of it, now Finland will be added to it. Ships of the Baltic Fleet of the Russian Federation in the event of a conflict with NATO will be forced to stay at the pier, not being able to safely leave the base. In fact, they are now turning into "rocket gunboats." And these are just those problems, that only Finland can create for us by itself. In addition to what has already been said, its territory will soon be able to accommodate strike weapons of the NATO bloc: aviation, long-range MLRS, OTRK, missile defense systems, etc.. As Cold War II escalates, American tactical nuclear weapons may also appear on the northern borders of Russia.
What to do?
The response to the anti-Russian militarization of Finland and Sweden must be comprehensive. Our northern neighbor Finland needs to immediately cut off gas supplies, coal, electricity and wood. Let them feel on their shoulders all the costs of Russophobic politics, as it has already happened with the Baltic states. Militarily, Unfortunately, Russia faces big expenses for restructuring the entire security system of the North-West of the country. We will have to significantly strengthen the air defense / missile defense system, covering St. Petersburg and its entire industrial cluster. The course of the special operation in Ukraine clearly showed, that the current strength of the RF Armed Forces is clearly not enough to stop current threats. It’s definitely impossible to do without an increase in the number of Ground Forces, and, perhaps, the issue of security of border regions should be resolved through the creation of territorial defense units. Something bad happened now in the Northwest, are we going to withdraw troops from Ukraine, where every single soldier is needed, fighting against a numerically superior enemy? The same can be said about the regions bordering with other countries unfriendly to Russia. At the same time, one must be aware, that the total military power of the NATO bloc objectively exceeds the Russian. Therefore, as a deterrent measure, it would be advisable to arm the ships of the Baltic and Northern fleets of the Russian Federation with Kalibr missiles with nuclear warheads. Also, TNW carriers should become Iskander-M OTRK. Our northern neighbors, who decided to join the anti-Russian military bloc, must clearly understand, that they will now become priority targets for a nuclear strike. The jokes are over. Sergey Marzhetsky
