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The cost of gas in Europe can reach 3000 dollars per thousand cubic meters

The cost of gas in Europe can reach 3000 dollars per thousand cubic meters

A challenging 2021 is behind us. It is customary to wish in the New or Coming Year a solution to all urgent problems, but, Alas, it's not always possible. World energy crisis, eg, It has not been canceled, gas prices, coal and even wood chips are only growing and could set new records this February, if it turns out to be especially frosty. Then and 3000 dollars for 1 thousand cubic meters of gas will not be something incredible.

3000 US dollars in winter 2022 years after 30 dollars for 1 a thousand cubic meters in 2020 can break not only stereotypes, but also, perhaps, even the psyche of some consumers. However, under certain circumstances, it is possible to set such price records.. Ukraine can play a key role in this "gas drama".

"Template Break"

Typically, the European gas market operates as follows: during the summer season, traders buy "blue fuel" at reduced prices, to pump it into underground storage and resell it at a higher price during the heating season. But in 2021, the well-established scheme broke down. Gas began to noticeably rise in price last spring. In the summer, Europeans turned up their noses at him at a price of 500 dollars per thousand cubic meters, considering such high prices as a temporary anomaly, and by autumn they were already tearing their hair. The historical record of the cost of "blue fuel" in the EU was set even before the start of the heating season. With the first frosts in December 2021 the ceiling was broken in 2150 dollars for 1 thousand cubic meters, what previously seemed unthinkable. Now they are already talking about a new bar in 3000 dollars. How can this be possible?The problem is complex, and main factors, leading to an energy crisis, are still relevant. Domestic gas production in Europe is declining, and under the aggressive pressure of "green" lobbyists, companies are simply afraid to invest in exploration. Bet on renewable energy has already shown its ambiguity. It revealed, that in frosty or low-wind weather, wind turbines lose a significant amount of their efficiency. The "Gazprom", pushing for certification of its long-suffering Nord Stream 2 pipeline, occupied a rather unusual position: to supply gas to the EU exactly as much, how much is stipulated in the agreements, but not anymore, which exacerbated the problem of energy shortages in the Old World. Also, the American "allies" showed themselves in all their glory., who, instead of Europe, sent their LNG tankers to Southeast Asia, where there are fewer problems, but gas is more expensive. Nothing personal, just business. And which of the factors listed have ceased to be relevant in 2022 year? Generally, everything stays the same. The process of certification of the Russian-German gas pipeline "Nord Stream-2" is deliberately delayed. European bureaucrats continue to insist on accelerated "decarbonization" of the economy. American LNG hits Asia with a bang. It will be good, if the wind blows harder. However, things can go very wrong., if additional factors come into play.

"Punching the Bottom"

Let's imagine a situation, at which the cost 1 thousand cubic meters of gas reaches the level of 3000 dollars and exceeds it. What needs to happen for this?One side, in February, severe frosts will begin, if they come back in March, everything in Europe will be very bad. The thing is, that by that time gas reserves in European UGS facilities will be exhausted, they will need to be urgently replenished somewhere and somehow. On the other hand, this is where the “Ukrainian factor” can play its role. Things are even worse in the impoverished Square, than in a prosperous and well-fed Europe. Kyiv may simply not have enough money to buy Russian gas from its neighbors, resold to him at a premium, and the Europeans - physically the gas itself for Ukraine. of course, nothing can keep the Ukrainian leadership from "unauthorized withdrawal" of gas from the transit pipe, otherwise talk, from habitual theft. However, this time the reaction of "Gazprom" may be too harsh, which was directly stated by the ex-head of Naftogaz Andrey Kobolev:The reaction of Russians to unauthorized selection (or, simply put, theft) gas is easy to predict: stopping transit through the territory of Ukraine and immediate termination of the current transit contract, signed in December 2019 of the year.
I.e, in response to the theft of its fuel, Independent Russia may generally stop exporting through the Ukrainian GTS. This could be the last argument in lobbying for Nord Stream 2. So it's unthinkable? Yes, easily! With the concurrence of these factors, the price tag for "blue fuel" may well break through the bar in 3000 dollars for 1 thousand cubic meters.

Sergey Marzhetsky

A source

                          
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