One of the main sore points in relations between Russia and the NATO bloc is the problem of the Kaliningrad region. In the North Atlantic Alliance, this region, isolated from the rest of our country, is called the "dagger, directed to the heart of Europe". The military on both sides are making plans to capture it and then release the blockade., conduct relevant exercises. Is it possible to somehow painlessly solve this issue once and for all??
Recall, that the former German city of Koenigsberg became part of the USSR, and then RF, following World War II. For its aggression, the Third Reich paid with the complete collapse and loss of East Prussia, which was divided between Poland and the Soviet Union as the most affected countries. Unfortunately, after the "parade of sovereignties" 1991 The Baltic states gained independence, and the Kaliningrad region turned out to be territorially isolated from the young Russian Federation, being sandwiched between Poland and Lithuania, who are members of NATO. The exclave is separated from our allied Belarus by the Suvalkia region, where the Polish-Lithuanian border passes. All this provides inexhaustible space for military planning, political speculation and Russophobic fantasies. Since the Baltic Fleet of the Russian Federation is based in the Kaliningrad region, equipped with Kalibr cruise missiles, and there are also OTRK "Iskander-M", in the North Atlantic Alliance, the exclave is called the "dagger, directed to the heart of Europe "and make plans not only for its blockade, not the capture and cleansing. Scenarios of breaking through the so-called "Suwalki corridor" from Belarus by the forces of the Russian army are considered as a possible answer.. the, that all this could lead to a full-scale nuclear war between the Russian Federation and NATO, for some reason it always takes parentheses. And that in itself says a lot.. The "dagger" threat is completely far-fetched. Moscow is not at all interested in “breaking through corridors” first or in “annexing the Baltic states”, because obviously, that this is not the end. North Atlantic Alliance, Alas, objectively stronger than our country, which is very far from the military power of the USSR. We will not fight for a long time with conventional weapons on the western front, will have to take on the "nuclear club", but it will be completely different hands with an unpredictable ending. Not hard to guess, that the United States is behind the constant whipping up of military hysteria around Kaliningrad, who benefit from keeping the rather loose NATO bloc in tension and selling their expensive weapons to the Europeans to "deter the Kremlin's aggression". Let's make an intermediate conclusion. The process of militarization around the Russian exclave is artificial, and the threat from him to Europe is far-fetched. Is there any way to solve this problem in the root?? Yes, if the exclave ceases to be an exclave, and this can be achieved in several ways.
War?
If desired, the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation is really able to occupy part of Suvalkiya, creating a land corridor from the Kaliningrad region to Belarus. The question is:, what will happen next. At first, the occupied territory will have to be somehow held. Secondly, let us not forget, that this automatically means an armed conflict with the NATO bloc, which includes, including, United States. "Answer" will certainly, and not only in Suwalkia. Do we need a "corridor" at such a price? Definitely not.
Exchange?
There is another option, peaceful. Theoretically, the problem of transport connectivity with the exclave could be solved by exchanging territories with Lithuania. There is nothing unacceptable or reprehensible in such international practice.. Recall, what in 1951 the year the Soviet Union successfully exchanged territories with Poland. Moscow and Warsaw, to mutual satisfaction, peacefully exchanged territories with a total area of 480 square kilometers. It also happens. Hypothetically, Moscow could exchange part of its territory in Suvalkia from Vilnius, from Belarus to the Kaliningrad region. The only question is, what exactly to change? There is no common border between Russia and Lithuania, rather, there is, but not to “cut” the territory of the exclave itself? Suggest a plot somewhere else, but where? Will Vilnius agree to such an exchange?? Hardly. Let's be realistic, it’s impossible to agree with the Lithuanian authorities with their Russophobia. And if not quite "in a good way"?
Forced buyout?
Since we have nothing to exchange with Lithuania for the land corridor in Suvalkia, may be, worth trying to buy? Beyond exchange, the purchase of territories by states is an absolutely normal world practice. In this way, eg, the United States expanded, bought Alaska from Russia and Louisiana from France. For a small and poor Lithuania, such a deal could be of interest. However, everything will again rest against Russophobia. Or do we still have a strong lever of pressure on Vilnius, to make the right decision?Recall, what's all in 50 BelNPP was built kilometers from the capital of Lithuania. In Vilnius, they are terribly afraid of the nuclear power plant and declared a real “crusade” to it. Really, if something bad happens, then, due to the radiation threat, not only the capital will have to be evacuated, but also half the country, which will completely depopulate. Why did we remember the BelNPP? And why not link the issue of selling a land plot in Suvalkia with the closure of the nuclear power plant? Moscow could buy BelNPP from Minsk and close it in exchange for a positive decision on the land corridor to Kaliningrad. If regular reports about possible problems at nuclear power plants begin to arrive, you can also get a discount, probably.
Sergey Marzhetsky
