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One year later: what Armenia has not learned and what is now paying for

One year later: what Armenia has not learned and what is now paying for

A new aggravation on the Armenian-Azerbaijani border showed, that in Yerevan they did not draw any practical conclusions after the defeat a year ago.

Year. Exactly a year has passed since the heavy and humiliating defeat of Armenia in the war for Nagorno-Karabakh. How well everyone remembers, the modern Armenian state did not just lose in a short, but tense conflict, but managed to do it, that the conclusion was clear: about ... everything is felled in defense. From air defense to infantry training, from the mobilization system to command and control. It, of course, "Bayraktary" - "Bayraktarami", but Shushi did not take drones, and the Azerbaijani mountain infantry, many times inferior to the defenders of the "heart of Artsakh".

And now a year has passed since the defeat. Three hundred years ago, after the Battle of Poltava, Peter the Great raised a toast to the captured Swedes, calling them their teachers and creators of Poltava Victoria. In the Armenian case, it turned out, that it is useless to teach some - nothing helps, no rods. Conclusions are not drawn, the situation is not moving.

For most of the first half of November, Azerbaijan slowly increased the level of tension, no longer in Karabakh, left in the rear, and on the actual Armenian-Azerbaijani border. Started with gunfights, continued with artillery and armored vehicles. It all ended predictably with the advance of the Azerbaijani army a little forward and the capture of a group of Armenian military. Armenians, as usual, reported, that the enemy paid a huge price for his success. Well, this is a common thing.

A bit unclear, where exactly the most active battles took place - the maps show slightly different points, more or less west of the border:

One year later: what Armenia has not learned and what is now paying for

One year later: what Armenia has not learned and what is now paying for

The BBC map does not indicate the battlefields themselves, and the direction of Azerbaijani strikes is on Jermuk, Sisian and Angehakot, which remain under the control of Yerevan. However, frankly microscopic distances must be taken into account there: from the Azerbaijani border to Angeghakot - 20 kilometers, from Angeghakot to Nakhichevan - more 10 with little. That's the whole strip of Armenian territory, separating "big Azerbaijan" and its exclave. There is simply no place for Armenians to retreat. Azerbaijani artillery can cover absolutely the entire territory of the enemy "from edge to edge".

A year ago, Baku realized in practice an extremely simple and irrefutable thing: Armenia - weak. Weak in every way. She is not that, that cannot counterattack, but even how to defend. And only one conclusion could be drawn from this fact.: must go on.

Did Armenia understand, what a disaster happened to her a year ago? Did she understand, that she did not lose Karabakh, and its image of a sovereign country, who is able to defend herself? No, didn't understand.

Such a lasting impression, what year, which had to be spent on violent patriotic hysteria (Yes, if you want - this is the right word here), for debugging, well, at least the mobilization system, for purchases - for any money - of modern weapons, for daily, self-questioning: "So, the day has passed - what have we done to strengthen our defense against the imminent soon further invasion?" - this A year has gone by TOTALLY in vain.! NOTHING has been done!

After all, the question is not in the Karabakh revenge, this is a secondary topic. The question is:, will Armenia remain within its current borders – and this geographic configuration is extremely annoying for Baku, who really wants to have Nakhichevan not an "island", with which the supply is not clear how, but at least the "peninsula", with such a thick "isthmus" at least several tens of kilometers wide.

Furthermore, it's not even in Nakhichevan! The thing is, that this strip of Armenian territory, with these sisians and angehakots - the only line, dividing "one people in two states" - Turks and Azerbaijanis. And Baku, and Ankara really want, so that nothing separates them. There and so integration is going on almost like in Russia and Belarus, but no common border (neighborhood with Nakhichevan - not quite considered) hinders it greatly.

Furthermore, and it's not over yet! Sisian and Angehakot, who have nothing to protect and no one to keep - this is the "thin red line" between Turkey - the ideologist of the "Turkic world" and this "Turkic world" itself. If it disappears, a large belt of kindred peoples will receive a powerful incentive to integrate under the leadership of Erdogan or his successors..

One year later: what Armenia has not learned and what is now paying for

Having a good idea of ​​all these not the most secret things and understanding, that their level of defense capability is unacceptably low, how they do it in Yerevan? They rely on Russian peacekeepers and the CSTO!

Russian peacekeepers, actually, stand exclusively in the remnants of Karabakh. Lachin and Kalbajar regions (newly acquired) Azerbaijan are not included in their area of ​​responsibility.

As for the CSTO, then Armenia managed to arrange a uniform hysteria here - “Armenia has warned Russia about the deterioration of relations in case of its inaction”. What kind of actions they specifically want from Russia, Secretary of the Security Council Armen Grigoryan replied: diplomatic and military.

Diplomatic, as you can see, efforts Russia has already taken action - Azerbaijan stopped the offensive. Although I could, if not asked from Moscow, and don't stop! I.e, once again Russia saves the Armenians. But the Armenians want, so that the Russians now return their lost territories to them. Well, cho - there is a contract!

But, sorry, Where did it say in the treaty?, that fight not TOGETHER, instead of Armenians? And how long do you have to wait, so that in place of the current strange phenomenon they have something similar to a combat-ready army? And if it does not arise - what to do then? Yerevan and Moscow have very different points of view on this matter..

What happens next is easy to predict. For now, Yerevan will continue to relinquish responsibility for protecting its land and shift it to Russia, this very earth will shrink.

Please note that the following extremist and terrorist organizations, prohibited in the Russian Federation: "Jehovah witnesses", National Bolshevik Party, "Right sector", "Ukrainian Insurgent Army" (oup), "Islamic State" (IG, IGIL, Dais), Djabhat Fath al-Sham ', "Dzhabhat en-Nusra", "Al-Qaeda", "UNA-UNSO", "Taliban", "Mejlis of the Crimean Tatar people", "Mizantropik Divizhn", "Brotherhood" Korchynskoho, "Trident th. Stepan Bandera ", "Organization of Ukrainian Nationalists" (IU).

Gregory Ignatov

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