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Europe and China are waiting for the fight for Turkmen gas

Europe and China are waiting for the fight for Turkmen gas

Winter is already on the way, and the energy crisis in Europe is only getting worse. At the same time, Gazprom was clearly appointed as the main “guilty”, and in the Western press there are calls to send him to hell. But then how to replace Russian gas?

The global triumph of renewables is still a long way off., nuclear energy scares many, coal is environmentally harmful. You can't rely on LNG either., because in a liberal market, suppliers forget about Europe and send their tankers to Asia, where the profit is higher. Only gas remains, and, pipeline gas, preferably with long-term contracts for guaranteed supplies. But where to get it, if not in Russia? And here again they begin to talk a lot about Azerbaijani gas.

Southern Gas Corridor

The idea to reduce Europe's dependence on supplies from Russia arose a long time ago. Within its framework, the so-called "Southern Gas Transport Corridor" was built., connecting the fields of Azerbaijan with the Turkish Trans-Anatolian gas pipeline (TANAP) and the Trans Adriatic pipeline (TAP), out to southern Europe. The only problem is, that within the framework of the existing pipeline network, Baku can supply the countries of the European Union with all 10 billion cubic meters of gas per year. However, President Aliyev recently boasted, that the proven reserves of gas fields in Azerbaijan reach 2,6 trillion cubic meters, and threatened to expand supplies:Azerbaijan at the end 2020 started gas supplies to Europe. We see, that we can become gas suppliers to other EU countries. We plan to work with the EU to expand the geography of deliveries.
In the context of the current energy crisis, Brussels' interest in Baku's initiatives, obviously, rise sharply. However, Europe will no longer be satisfied with Azerbaijani gas alone.. As it appears, in the very near future, we should expect activation in the direction of connecting to the "Southern Gas Transport Corridor" of Turkmenistan.

Trans-Caspian gas pipeline

Europe has been eyeing Turkmen gas fields for a long time. This Central Asian republic is extremely rich in reserves of "blue fuel", which make up the order 19,5 trillion cubic meters. However, due to the peculiarities of its geographical location, Ashgabat can only export it to two neighboring countries - China and Russia.. This enables major gas buyers to set prices that are comfortable for them., and especially succeeded in this China. Turkmenistan is forced to sell "blue fuel" of the Celestial Empire at low prices in payment of a 4 billion loan, issued by China for the construction of a pipeline for its own needs. This is how you need to be able to do things. As an alternative to Russia and China, Turkmenistan considered the energy market of distant Europe. It was planned to build an offshore pipeline along the bottom of the Caspian Sea, which was supposed to connect with the "Southern Gas Corridor". At the expense of Turkmenistan, the European Union could already receive 30 billion cubic meters of gas per year, which already represents a very significant volume. Unfortunately for Ashgabat, the problem of the unsettled legal status of the Caspian Sea stood in the way of the construction of the Transcapian pipeline, and all these plans remained projects. It was also not clear, who will pay for the construction of the gas pipeline. Fortunately for Ashgabat and its European partners, at 2018 the "Convention on the Legal Status of the Caspian Sea" was signed. All five Caspian countries, including Russia and, established new rules for laying underwater pipelines. Now only the agreement of the nearest neighbors is sufficient for this., not all five states. In other words, Moscow's permission to sign an agreement between Baku and Ashgabat is no longer required. true, reservation was made, that other parties to the Convention may demand compliance with all environmental standards, dragging out the process. practice shows, that in the case of Nord Stream 2, Denmark was able to stretch the red tape for several years, but in the end still had to issue permission. Why did the Russian leadership give the green light to an energy project competing with Gazprom, the author of the lines has not been able to figure it out for himself yet. But in Baku and Ashgabat they immediately perked up. At the beginning 2021 Azerbaijan and Turkmenistan signed a memorandum of understanding on joint exploration and development of hydrocarbon resources at the Dostlug field (Friendship), what's in the Caspian. Very symbolic event and project name. Against whom will the former Soviet republics be friends, probably, and so clear without further explanation. so, what we have. A large-scale energy crisis is growing in the Old World. "Gazprom" was appointed guilty of it. Currently, there is an installation to replace Russian gas with any other, eg, Azerbaijani, and better - also Turkmen. Given the heightened interest of Europe and the extreme politicization of the issue, it can be assumed with a high degree of probability, that Brussels itself will find the necessary investments for the construction of the Trans-Caspian pipeline. At the same time, Moscow for some reason tied its own hands by signing the Convention on the Caspian. What's next?Now it remains only to rely on the position of China. Beijing is extremely interested in maintaining its exclusive status, and he doesn't need, so that Turkmen gas begins to go to the alternative European market. Why does he need this? The PRC clearly considers all these reserves of "blue fuel" to be its own., and the Chinese benefit from the preservation of the semi-enslaved status of Ashgabat. It means, that after Russia’s voluntary withdrawal from the game, the Celestial Empire will enter the fight for Turkmen gas with Europe, which will be forced to apply other methods of pressure.

Sergey Marzhetsky

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