Isaac Asimov's famous Foundation trilogy tells the story of, how the invincible conqueror Mule appeared in the Galaxy, and in the hands of his opponents was his escaped jester, a strange young man named Magnifico.
Mule throws all his strength into the hunt for Magnifico, capturing all the planets one by one, on which he appears (the ex-jester always has time to evacuate at the last moment). Mule's opponents see the reason for this persistence in, that Magnifico knows some important secret of the Mule, perhaps the secret of his strength, and the best psychologists in the galaxy are trying to get to her through the labyrinths of Magnifico's consciousness.
In the end, it turns out, that Magnifico is the Mule, mutant, possessing monstrous telepathic and parapsychological abilities, using which he paralyzes the resistance forces of any planet, on which it turns out, after which it is easily captured by his troops.
May readers forgive me for such a lyrical digression, but associations with Magnifico involuntarily come to mind when looking at the current president of Ukraine. And it's not so much in his previous profession, how much is, that after more than two years in office, he continues to look like a buffoon on the throne, although it's always easier to "seem", than "to be", especially a professional actor.
Inappropriate antics, the easily seen falseness of his "serious" statements, often highly inappropriate, and complete inability to hide the fear and confusion that had seized him. “It hurts your face is not royal” - one wants to exclaim after the hero of another famous work. Forecasts, that this circus is about to end, do not disappear from the media from the very moment of Zelensky's "accession".
A week ago "Alternative" (“Zelensky on the verge of a “drain” - 2”) drew attention to another, not the first “call” to Zelensky from the West, very resembling no longer a warning, and for the promotion of the operation to displace it: publications from Pandora, shedding light on his offshore operations and even hinting at participation in the criminal schemes of the oligarch Kolomoisky. And a little earlier it resurfaced, and at a very high level (CNN), the theme of zrada in the scandal with the "Wagnerites", moreover, with the announcement of truly murderous revelations for Zelensky.
But even after that, Zelensky did not even think to slow down. was successfully carried out, with a lot of votes, replacement of Dmitry Razumkov, who decided to play his own political game, with the absolutely loyal Ruslan Stefanchuk as chairman of the Verkhovna Rada. In this way, Zelensky concentrated in his hands full control over the legislative and executive branches of Ukrainian power.
Of the other events of the week, the most resonant was the mysterious death of 33-year-old MP Anton Polyakov, former "Servant", who became an implacable opponent of Vladimir Zelensky. Of course, the presumption of innocence has not been canceled, and indeed any person, including politicians, "suddenly mortal", but inevitably there are associations with no less strange suicide (the official version) young and energetic mayor of Krivoy Rog Konstantin Pavlov two months ago.
Other mayors of key Ukrainian cities also have problems, who are not loyal enough to Zelensky. In the same week, a submission was filed to the court for the arrest of the current mayor of Odessa, Gennady Trukhanov., he escaped with a written undertaking not to leave and bail 30 million hryvnia (over 1 million dollars).
29 Mayor of Zaporozhye Volodymyr Buryak resigned for health reasons. And all these are "political heavyweights", at least by the standards of their cities. Under increasing pressure are the leaders of the Dnieper (cities) and Kyiv: Anatoly Filatov and Vitali Klitschko.
A 8 On October 11, the Prosecutor General's Office presented Viktor Medvedchuk with a new suspicion of treason and assistance to the activities of a terrorist organization in connection with his involvement in the illegal supply of coal from the occupied territory at the end of 2014 - beginning 2015 of the year. Prosecutor General Venediktova said, that the prosecutor's office, within the framework of the new suspicion raised, will ask the court to elect Medvedchuk (already under house arrest) a measure of restraint in the form of arrest with an alternative bail in 1 bn.
All these episodes are only touches in the overall picture of the gradual (but fast enough) concentration of power levers and control over the country in the hands of Magnifico-Zelensky, which none of his predecessors had.
None of them, maybe, and could not dream of the NSDC sanctions mechanism, in fact, allowing the president to manually, according to "your will", without any legal process, shut down unwanted media, block access to assets and bank accounts to any person. And Zelensky not only created such a system, but also uses it most actively.
23 September adopted a law on oligarchs, transferring them to the status of dispossessed (representatives of the "exploiting classes", deprived in the early USSR of a number of civil and political rights). Moreover, this status will be “granted” by the same National Security and Defense Council on an “individual” basis. T. it is. recent main beneficiaries of the Ukraine project found themselves on a short leash.
The law was stalled due to Razumkov's refusal to sign it, but now that barrier has been lifted. In a hurry, mutually exclusive norms were introduced into the text of the law, but in the text sent for signature to the new speaker, this discrepancy has already been corrected. From a legal point of view, this is a good reason to invalidate the entire law., but, looks like, Zelensky does not consider this a problem.
After all, he has “everything in order” with the opposition.. Ratings (over 30 percent) also absolutely record-breaking for an incumbent president. Many doubt their authenticity., but after all, the predecessors could not make such “adjustments”, although desire, of course, It was. So in any case, this is an indicator of the strength of his position..
And in fact, there are no real rivals yet. Petro Poroshenko has too high anti-rating, he is also haunted by a heap of corruption allegations, which have not yet been launched, and lately it only denotes oppositional activity. Well, Yulia Tymoshenko, by voting her faction for the speaker's "castling", clearly showed the actual loyalty of the authorities.
"Anti-Maidan" segment, At first, in present-day Ukraine has a fairly well-defined niche, who can't get out, and most importantly, its leaders are not ready to escalate, especially in light of the situation with Medvedchuk. To this must be added the split. In particular, noteworthy is the recent unsuccessful promotion of Evgeny Muraev, which is considered a project of the Bank.
Yes, and street right-wing opposition, once simply intimidating Zelensky, now practically does not "shine". true, And he doesn't give her much to complain about.. After all, his audacity in relations with Russia and sensitive humanitarian issues cannot be ignored.. Even Poroshenko tried to support (often not publicly) working contacts with Moscow.
The complete lack of constructiveness in the Russian direction could be explained by carte blanche for the implementation of such a policy by the most anti-Russian forces in the West., that, because the president fulfills the tasks assigned to him, favorably refer to the strengthening of his own power within the country.
But, as the signals show, mentioned above, dissatisfaction with Zelensky is also growing in Washington and London, and this applies not only to the situation inside Ukraine. Its not public, but besieged, when he started provocative maneuvers in the spring, advised, leaked to the media, “slow down” in rhetoric against SP-2. On the whole,, claims against the West for insufficient support for Ukraine, increasingly expressed by Ukrainian officials, cannot but cause irritation there.
Zelensky's actual response to the West's claims should be attributed to, perhaps, even more important event of the week, than castling in the Verkhovna Rada. On Saturday, 9 October, the decisive meeting of the commission for the selection of the head of the Special Anti-Corruption Prosecutor's Office did not take place due to the absence of three members, controlled by the Office of the President.
And the soonest appointment of a new head of SAPO, controlled by the West, is one of the main demands of the Americans to Zelensky, even becoming the most specific point in a joint statement after his meeting with Biden.
Immediately followed by a statement from the US Embassy: «The EU and the US are very disappointed with the incomprehensible and unjustified delays in the election of the head of the Specialized Anti-Corruption Prosecutor's Office, decision-making body for fighting corruption at a high level. We urge the selection committee to resume work without further delay. Stopping the selection process undermines the work of anti-corruption bodies, created by Ukraine and its international partners».
Zelensky also spoke out on Twitter: «I did not hear adequate explanations regarding the delay in the competition for the election of a new head of SAPO. Members of the competition commission must fulfill their duty, as it should be. For Ukraine, the efficiency of anti-corruption institutions is a priority».
clear, what is this from the series "I'm not me and the mare is not mine", and especially in the key. Actually looks like a blatant stunt., designed to demonstrate, that Biden himself is not a decree for him, especially "Pandora" and "Wagner". therefore, breakwater, in vain and do not try. At the same time, the level of Zelensky’s opposition to the West is growing more and more as his position within the country strengthens..
What is it, "madness of the brave" amateur, just not understanding, what are the dangers of such games (sometimes it brings temporary results) or, conversely, risky, but the well-thought-out tactics of a sophisticated political player?
It seems, which is more likely the second, and such a player, As we have noted, is not Zelensky, and being in the shadow of his "political dad" Kolomoisky, which the, one side, forced to fight with the collective West for his survival as a businessman and even personal freedom (and circumstances force him to play for broke), On the other hand, apparently, having leverage over his protégé (hence the easily visible confusion of Zelensky, trapped between two fires).
The strengthening of the positions of the current authorities within the country and the growing anti-Russian degree of Ukrainian foreign policy are increasingly complicating for the West a possible combination to remove Zelensky, make it fraught with unpredictable consequences, until the complete collapse of the project "Ukraine", what, how Kolomoisky calculates, will force the "partners" to seek a compromise, t. it is. leave the oligarch himself alone. It gives him courage, that after Afghanistan, the loss of Ukraine could also become a complete political disaster for Biden.
After all, anti-Russian activity that goes beyond certain limits and Zelensky’s inability to negotiate are increasingly hindering Washington. Everything points to, that they are looking for ways for some thaw in relations with Russia in the context of the growing confrontation with China, in any case, the White House does not need a new escalation of tension. And Ukraine in this regard remains the main risk factor.
To discuss Ukrainian topics on Monday, 11 October, Victoria Nuland arrived in Moscow, and the guest "welcomed" with his article, dedicated to Ukraine, Dmitry Medvedev. By status, this is not the official position of Moscow, but, as everyone understands, and not the personal opinion of the ex-president of Russia.
The main theses of the article, sustained in an unusually tough tone, can be reduced to the following:, that the current leadership of Ukraine is inadequate and incapable of negotiating, and therefore, there's no point in dealing with him., we need to wait for the emergence of more sane politicians. It makes no sense to talk with Kiev, and therefore, that his politicians are not independent (Medvedev points out in detail, why Kyiv is more dependent on the West and especially the USA, than the countries of the socialist bloc from the USSR at one time), and therefore “it’s pointless for us to deal with vassals. Business must be done with the suzerain.".
The contradiction between "wait for new leaders" and "deal with the overlord" is actually apparent. Against the background of the increasing arbitrariness of the vassals, this is a kind of trolling of the "suzerain", leading to the question: what to talk about with you, if you do not have sufficient influence on the Kiev regime?
Finally, "use power" or recognize, that lost control over Kyiv, and therefore, "Ukrainian issue" should fade into the background in Russian-American relations. Well, “the tail cannot control the dog” - a secondary, a state in permanent crisis with inadequate leadership to determine the relationship between the two nuclear superpowers? This is Russia's message to American partners.
We will follow developments, they promise not to be boring.
Dmitry Slavskii,
specially for alternatio.org
