Each consumer of Russian gas abroad obsessively dictated their terms “Gazprom”, and humane European courts forced him to pay billions of dollars in various fines.
For the last 5 years over “Gazprom” clouds were constantly gathering, which eventually formed an impenetrable fog.
However, today the price of gas in Europe is approaching 1200 dollars for 1000 cubic meters. The heating season hasn't even started yet., that is, these are not peak values.
Dynamics of gas prices (1 of 2)
While writing this article, the exchange price of gas in Europe has once again updated a historical maximum, topping $1350 for 1000 cube. m. (2 of 2)
Dynamics of gas prices (1 of 2)
For reasons unknown to anyone, the EU decided, that only they regulate the gas market of the planet, so the cost of gas will be, what they want to do. The market economy has all the tools for this.
The ray of common sense through the fog of absurdity did not break through.
In general, Europe does not really need gas, because alternative energy is developing with might and main, and soon everyone will switch to hydrogen.
The first blow to the EU's gas vanity was dealt by Trump, which with 2018 by 2019 year unleashed a gas war with Russia in order to rid the EU of “authoritarian” Russian gas, not containing “molecules of freedom”.
tramp, using your power, forced European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker to betray the economic interests of the EU countries and buy American LNG, which cost almost twice as much as pipeline gas from Russia, but contained the very cherished “freedom molecules”.
At that time, additional volumes of gas in Europe were completely useless, and there is an oversupply of gas in the EU gas market.
U.S. LNG shipments increased from 0,25 million cubic meters per 2018 godu to 3 billion cubic meters by the end 2019 of the year, taking a share in 16% in the European LNG market.
The EU began to enjoy low gas prices, so so, its cost, due to an excess of gas and a rather warm winter, dropped in May 2020 years below 50 dollars for 1000 cubic meters.
At that time contracts “Gazprom” in terms of pricing have been in the process of revision for many years. EU wanted market pricing, while “Gazprom” insisted on linking gas prices to oil prices and long-term contracts.
Eventually “Gazprom” lost all courts and disputes on the "Yamal contract", concluded with Poland back in 1996 godu to 2022 of the year. As compensation for “undemocratic prices”, prescribed in signed contracts, The Stockholm court ordered “Gazprom” in favor of Poland 1,6 billion euros.
“Gazprom” all that was left was to spit on everything and, executing a court decision, do gas pricing on 85% spot price dependent.
Then everyone rejoiced. for example, for Bulgaria, the cost of gas fell immediately by 40% and was 152 dollars, and for Moldova - 127 dollars.
Today only 13% contracts “Gazprom” tied to oil prices. Germany and Turkey did not give in to temptation, leaving old contracts with “Gazprom”.
Also, for some unknown reason, the EU believed in global warming, forgetting about, that the Bosphorus Strait, located nearby, froze more than once. All this created the illusion, that gas is not so necessary. Well well…
But winter has come 2021 of the year, during which the much vaunted windmills with solar panels around the world froze (ES, USA, Japan), about which I wrote in more detail in the article “The energy crisis has hit 50 years ahead of forecasts”.
Suddenly it turned out, that in itself “green” energy is helpless against natural disasters, and without gas. And then the influence of the pandemic has done its dark deed. All this together led to, that energy resources on the planet became scarce. Gas prices have gone up inexorably. And at this very moment, almost all American LNG goes to the Asian market., where prices are traditionally higher (eg, private traders sell more LNG, destined for EU, to the same China – there price of 25% higher).
We remember: business, nothing personal.
Here is a reliable partner for you, which makes you buy LNG then, when Europe doesn't need it, and at the moment, when US LNG demand soared, it is not for sale. maybe, It was then that the realization began to come, that all these maneuvers were needed only in order to, to bend “Gazprom” under this changing world.
The EU leadership has grossly miscalculated in its attempts to put pressure on “Gazprom”. Now they're blaming “Gazprom” in creating a gas deficit in the EU, and also outraged by the rejection “Gazprom” pump additional volumes of gas through Ukraine.
The most interesting, that the EU countries insist on pumping additional gas without concluding any contracts with “Gazprom”. We should just do it, because Europe decided so. Holy simplicity…
And we need it? There is a decision of their European Court, where the spot price is at the head of pricing. Decision, which they themselves so stubbornly sought, note. From my side “Gazprom” conscientiously fulfills all obligations under all contracts. What this has led – we know.
Against the backdrop of rising prices in the first half of the year 2021 year profit “Gazprom” increased 22 times compared to the same period last year.
Such rates “Gazprom” will pay for the construction “Northern Stream 2” Only for 3 of the year!
The fog began to clear, when the EU actually forced “Gazprom” completely stop additional sales of gas to Europe on its spot platform.
As a result, the gas crisis began to worsen even more.. And then China added fuel to the fire, who decided to slightly improve his ecology in the energy sector, closed several coal-fired power plants too early, relying on alternative energy sources.
But the hope was in vain: all these newfangled “green” “whistles” let me down as always (traditionally), triggering the biggest energy crisis in China, which has already affected 100 million people, factories and enterprises stop en masse.
In general, problems with electricity began in the summer.: 'scheduled' blackouts in Beijing and Xi'an began in July. And interruptions in the supply of electricity were in 11 provinces in the east and in the center of the country.
Due to interruptions in September 2021 factories stopped working, supplying components to companies “Tesla” and “Apple”.
Eventually the Chinese government announced, that the country will buy gas at any price and in any volume.
And this is just the beginning. The world simply does not have enough energy needs: European gas crisis, rolling blackouts in China, and in the US (California) power supply situation close to emergency.
To understand the situation: the entire European Union annually consumes 394 billion cubic meters of gas, and China is 330 billions, and in the near future China is going to increase consumption by another 40%!
gas pipeline “Power of Siberia” – to help!
Since a large-scale program of regional gasification has been launched in Russia, according to which 2030 year, the country should be gasified for 100%, we can only rejoice, that the role of natural gas in the global economy is only increasing. All talk of the end of the gas era turned out to be a delusion. This era will last for years 30-40.
Ahead of us is a European drama called "Winter 2021-2022". Deliberate delay on the part of the EU for the completion of certification “Northern current-2” It led to, that this winter it will definitely not work, if all the formal conditions of certification are met.
It's all the Russians' fault!
- Russians are to blame, that the domestic European gas price is catastrophically huge, although “Gazprom” under long-term contracts, it sells gas to the same Germany at 220 dollars for 1000 cubic meters.
- Russians are to blame for the energy disaster in the UK, because it's the same “Gazprom” probably built windmills for them, and single-handedly destroyed gas and coal thermal power plants.
- Russians are to blame, US (previously certified, that they will ensure the energy security of Europe through their LNG) brazenly deceived the EU and sell their LNG to Asia. There and closer and, the most important thing, buy more gas.
postscript.
Once again, the EU countries have shown their unity and perseverance in the fight against “Gazprom”. But in the end, it was precisely “Gazprom”, and now that, who wanted to bend him under him, got himself under “Gazprom”. This is destiny…
Hungary recently signed a long-term 15-year contract with “Gazprom”, thereby protecting themselves from any price hikes and guaranteeing their citizens energy security for at least 15 years.
Reason began to win, understanding comes, that the only country in the world, capable of fulfilling and fulfilling all agreements, ensuring the energy security of its partners, – It's Russia…
And no one else will help the EU.
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Kochetov Alexey
