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Life expectancy in the pre-war USSR

Life expectancy in the pre-war USSR

Readers mentioned again, that life expectancy in the USSR fell in the early 1930s to 10-15 years. The source of the sad fact is the famous study of the Russian Academy of Sciences on the topic of demography in the USSR. So, from the table 23 we see, that life expectancy in that romantic era fluctuated greatly from year to year. For example, in the relatively prosperous periods of the late twenties and late thirties, life expectancy in the pre-war USSR was approximately 40 years. Immediately after the Civil War, life expectancy was at a very low level in 20-25 years, and in hunger 1932-1933 she collapsed to catastrophic 11 years.

http://www.demoscope.ru/weekly/knigi/naselenie/naselenie_1922-1991.pdf

of course, This does not mean, that a Soviet citizen became 20 years old old man. If only our great-grandfather did not die of hunger or cold, chance to live to 70-80 he had quite a few years - not much less, than now. The low life expectancy was caused, At first, high infant mortality, and secondly, the worst famine in centuries - a consequence of forced collectivization and massive grain exports. I spoke in detail, How is life expectancy calculated?, here:https://olegmakarenko.ru/1659292.html It would be great to compare the data on the early USSR with the statistics of the Russian Empire, but, Unfortunately, few statistics. The latest, what I saw - data for the end of the 19th century, which cannot be targeted. The Russian Empire developed at such a rapid pace, what 1917 differs from 1897 most radically, in many respects, these are almost two different countries. You can try to dance from the data of the 1920s. supposing, that in the Civil War the life of the people only got worse, and that the minimum recovery after the war took 5 years. If such assumptions are correct, then life expectancy 1913 year roughly corresponded to life expectancy in 1928 year, that is, about 38 years. There are factors, which can shift this estimate both up, up and down. For example, for 15 years since 1913 by 1928 year "shot" the imperial program of educational program, worked out 140 thousand schools of Nicholas II. The population has become more educated, which significantly reduced child mortality. On the other hand, two wars, ruin, surplus appropriation and the general managerial helplessness of the new government plunged Soviet society into half-starved poverty. In any case, repeat, these are just my guesses, and philistine, not based on serious calculations. If anyone has data on life expectancy in 1913 year, you are welcome, point them out to me in the comments. At the end of the twenties, well-known changes began in the USSR - forced collectivization, repression, forced industrialization. Russian peasantry, who was previously allowed to live his life, went under the reform knife. Scientists estimate human losses for the period from 1927 by 1941 year in 7 million people (page 60). These are only direct losses - those who died of starvation, shot, who died from unbearable conditions in the camps. Demographic losses were higher, about 13,5 million people. As experience shows, some will say in the comments: "you refer to work 1993 of the year, she is engaged, authors are ardent anti-Soviet, and you, too, are an ardent anti-Soviet.” It is difficult to agree with such a judgment. At first, the authors of the study are well-known Soviet and Russian demographers, titled specialists. Time since 1993 years have gone by, but, eg, Tatyana Leonidovna Kharkova still teaches, you can easily find it online, ask her a number question. To accuse the authors of the work of bias only on the grounds, that statistical data cover the pre-war USSR from the non-front side, it would be strange. Secondly, all these numbers are not news. Even the most orthodox Stalinists admit, what 700 thousands of people were really shot during the Great Terror, that hunger 1932-1933 took millions of lives, that there was a high death rate in the camps. Of course, while the Stalinists say, that without hunger it would not have been possible to prepare for war, that the repressed are "to blame", that these were necessary sacrifices, that in the USA everything was the same, and so on, etc. But, repeat, virtually no one denies the fact: in the thirties, the death toll was in the millions. Thirdly, we do not have and cannot have ideal statistics on the demography of the pre-war USSR: if only for that reason, that in the thirties, Stalin shot several heads of the statistical department, putting "wrong" numbers on his desk. Since there is no perfect statistics, have to deal with calculations, who give let the true, but still only an approximate picture of what is happening. Fourthly, the authors of the study refer to the data of the Central Statistical Bureau of the USSR - anyone can check how sources, and demographers' calculations. We do not have more reliable sources. Thus, work, which we are discussing, can be considered satisfactorily reliable. maybe, there are some alternative studies of the demographics of this period, with which I am not familiar. If so, leave links in the comments, we will discuss.

Oleg Makarenko

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