The coming to power of the junta in the largest producer of bauxite can radically change the whole situation on the aluminum market and cause severe economic stress for the Russian Federation and China..
A military coup for Africa is not out of the ordinary. Most often, the world simply does not pay attention to this - there are many countries on the "black continent", they all appeared recently, and even their names are often similar. Equatorial Guinea, Guinea-Bissau and, finally, just the Republic of Guinea - how to distinguish them at all? Alas, you have to learn to distinguish: due to events on the outskirts of the ecumene, the entire civilized world can shudder, for which aluminum has long been the first metal in importance. And soon it, quite possible, will be missed.
This is the first important point, and second - analysis of the confrontation between the West and its geopolitical opponents in this remote theater of "war".
What do we know about Guinea? Likely, very little. Let's start from the basics.
Poor country. In the XX century, at one time was a friend of the USSR. The main item of budget revenues is the export of minerals. Guinea has more than half of the world's bauxite reserves (raw material for aluminum production), as well as a lot of rare earth and useful. The last 10 years there was a local analogue of Nelson Mandela - Alpha Conde, who a year ago led the country with massive support of the population through significant social transformations, legalized by referendum: distribution of wealth to the poor, prohibition of female circumcision, equal rights of spouses in divorce and so on. Well, Conde did not forget himself - he was allowed to run for a third presidential term.. However, almost 90% the population, and Condé won the next election too.
And then something happens, what exactly - until now no one can say, and special forces battalion commander Mamadi Dumbuya arrests the president. What hit him in the head is a mystery. He doesn't say anything himself. Even impolite, eventually: overthrew the leader of the country - well, at least explain, for what. At the same time, Dumbuya abolished the constitution and dissolved parliament.. apparently, stupidly doesn't know, what to do with the first and second, and why are they needed at all ...
All this was a preamble to the beginning of the real story..
Among a number of foreign aluminum companies, working in Guinea, Russian "Rusal" takes a large place. 30 percent bauxite (according to other sources - 45%) Rusal's raw materials are mined in Guinea. A, for a minute, HALF of all China's aluminum is made from Guinean bauxite. Just imagine, half of all electric in the vast Chinese market is produced from Guinean raw materials! Or it may suddenly stop being produced ...
Respectively, China has invested very well in Guinea. A lot of loans, investment, joint projects. And now what will happen to all this - the question!
Amid uncertainty, aluminum prices have already hit a ten-year high and jumped to 2727 dollars per ton. And although “the rebels assured investors that the mining industry in the country would continue to operate normally, promising to fulfill all the country's obligations to its international partners, despite the change of power ", - let's imagine for a moment, it is not so. idea, that there are some perturbations ahead!
for example, forcible nationalization of existing production facilities (and Russia and China built SO MUCH in total there, what's the cost, go, exceeds the country's GDP)… Or a sharp ban on the production of "wrong" companies - we, they say, such, we can!
Neither that, neither the other never look excessive fears - in fact, this has already happened. Previous junta in 2009 year, the first thing I did was to squeeze the plant from Rusal - it is there at the level of reflexes. Fortunately, Condé arrived soon and the situation returned to normal. Now he's gone, and the junta is in power again. The conclusion is not difficult to make yourself. "He himself desired to reign and to possess all", Yes.
Further, it may well be so, that Dumbuya suddenly wants to sharply redistribute concessions in Guinea between new partners - no longer Russia and China, while others, further west. American companies Halco Mining from Pittsburgh and Reynolds Metals Company from Richmond are already present in Guinea.. Why not assume, what exactly will they receive after the nationalization of the power of the Chinese and Russians? Nationalization, privatization, hop-hop, and two trucks of rollback cache leave in person to Dumbue in the mansion.
For Rusal, this is far from the best scenario.. The message has already flashed, what, despite all the junta's promises to maintain its obligations to foreigners, they do not apply to Russia: "Source of RBC, close to the port of Conakry (capitals of Guinea) reported, the supply of Rusal has already been interrupted: from 5 September, the capital port stopped shipping. Deliveries continue through the port of Komsar, where transshipment is carried out from the Dian Dian project. But that's just 40% from the supply of bauxite from Guinean assets for UC Rusal ".
Furthermore, the company has already officially announced, what are they ready to evacuate employees if the situation worsens. Very pessimistic, honestly. There is simply nothing to compensate for such a huge gap in supplies - not in the nearest, neither in the middle perspective.
Taken together, this quite clearly shows the anatomy of what is happening and its causes.. Yes, USA and France officially condemned the coup, but in fact they already benefit from, that the junta is doing great damage to their geopolitical adversaries and economic rivals. Well, just as a detail, Dumbuya - Former fighter of the French Foreign Legion, and he probably still has connections with colleagues, who could be the coordinators of this whole strange spontaneous action.
Together, this tells us about that truth, what Russia's security does not end ANYWHERE. Everywhere there is an opportunity for enemies to strike us. And consequently - we have the right to defend ourselves anywhere in the world, and no one has the right to tell us: you don't care about this country and its order.
Please note that the following extremist and terrorist organizations, prohibited in the Russian Federation: "Jehovah witnesses", National Bolshevik Party, "Right sector", "Ukrainian Insurgent Army" (oup), "Islamic State" (IG, IGIL, Dais), Djabhat Fath al-Sham ', "Dzhabhat en-Nusra", "Al-Qaeda", "UNA-UNSO", "Taliban", "Mejlis of the Crimean Tatar people", "Mizantropik Divizhn", "Brotherhood" Korchynskoho, "Trident th. Stepan Bandera ", "Organization of Ukrainian Nationalists" (IU).
Gregory Ignatov
