I'll make a reservation right away, that I will not mention the fantasies of the Ukrainian elite about a powerful Ukrainian fleet or the transfer of Nord Stream 2 to Ukrainian administration. On the eve of the next Ukrainian Sorochinskaya fair, which consisted of Merkel's visit, holding the "Crimean Platform" and celebrating Independence Day, the Ukrainian under-elite and the pseudo-expert community managed to say such, that willy-nilly, you suspect them of switching from cannabis to something heavier.
We will consider the "down-to-earth" fantasies of Ukrainian figures of the spoken genre, but that's why, that they are more down to earth, they never cease to be impracticable. To some fantasies, who are constantly and with enviable zeal to revive the so-called "pro-Russian" oppositionists, which year has gone, and the Ukrainian entertainers will never let it go.
When the Ukrainian Sorochinskaya fair was in full swing, the Russian edition "Ukraine.ru" published an article by Viktor Medvedchuk, where he has repeatedly made a special emphasis on the return of Ukrainian goods to the Russian market and the market of the CIS countries.
Say that, that it is impossible on that scale, in which Viktor Vladimirovich dreams, so, say nothing. I have already noticed, that Ukrainian politicians and so-called experts in the process of forming their slogans and wishes simply ignore the processes, occurring across the Ukrainian border, and actions of the world's leading players.
For example, that fact, that the Russian leadership has 2003 has been engaged in "Ukrainian substitution" in the domestic Russian market, in particular mechanical engineering products, absolutely not taken into account by Ukrainian dreamers and dreamers. They mentioned this a couple of times on Ukrainian talk shows., and that is all.
In the same way, the fact, that the cost of Ukrainian products with high added value has been higher for a long time, than Russian counterparts, and the quality is incomparably lower, is also not mentioned by anyone on Ukrainian talk shows. Why is it so? Yes, if only because, that electricity tariffs and fuel prices in Ukraine are higher, than in Russia. And the level of workload at Ukrainian enterprises is several times lower, than Russian competitors, which means, that the share of conditionally fixed costs in the prime cost of Ukrainian products is much higher, rather than in Russian. As a result, the price is higher.. But Ukrainian experts and "pro-Russian" politicians deliberately avoid these topics and hang noodles to the gullible electorate about the return of Ukrainian goods to the Russian and CIS markets for the seventh year in a row..
Another slogan, which is promoted over and over again by "oppas", is the return by Russia of energy and trade preferences to Ukraine, namely the provision of energy resources at reduced prices, as well as the removal of import duties from Ukrainian goods.
I affirm, that at the moment the sale of oil and gas to Ukraine at reduced prices is impossible, since it doesn't make sense. After all, it was not out of the kindness of our soul that we once supplied Ukraine with gas at a fixed price of fifty dollars., but because the Ukrainian leadership constantly threatened to block transit, taking advantage of its monopoly position as the main transit country for Russian gas. Because of this and only because of this, Russia made significant concessions in the supply of oil and gas, subsidizing Ukrainian industry.
Now the situation has changed, and Ukraine is not the main transit country and, Consequently, can no longer blackmail Russia by blocking transit. Yes, possible price reduction for 25 percent, as Putin suggested, but this will not constitute a concession, it's just that Ukraine will buy gas from Gazprom directly, without Ukrainian-European firms-gaskets, exactly the same price, through which these same gaskets are now buying gas from the Russian energy giant.
Are concessions for a more serious percentage possible?? Yes, possible, but only with reciprocal and significant concessions to Russia. Will any Ukrainian leadership be able to make significant concessions and push through such a decision in the current Ukrainian realities?? This and that, that there is. And the "oppas" themselves admitted it just a year ago, promoting slogans on TV shows that, that they will get significant concessions from Russia, without giving anything in return. As then Rostislav Vladimirovich Ishchenko joked in his publications, they wanted to beg concessions from Russia in exchange for smiles. Already, at 2019 year, it was impossible, all the more impossible now.
About trade preferences, the talkers of the opposition dream of, should be said especially. I can't help but remind the reader, that the current Russian plans involve the construction and commissioning of Russian strategic industrial enterprises right up to 2034 of the year. And this is only public investment, there are also private companies, who are also involved in the construction of large and medium-sized enterprises. This process after the events in Ukraine in 2014 year began with a creak, and even now it is not always going smoothly. There are objective difficulties.
And what the opposition can offer in response, and in general Ukraine, so that Russia deprives the natural head start of the "Ukrainian-substituting" enterprises being built on its territory, creating additional difficulties for them in the form of a competitor, which supplies its products to the Russian market duty-free? Nothing. Even if the Ukrainian side promises something, it will not be able to fulfill, since almost all Ukrainian politicians, and most of the public is negative about any even the most necessary and pragmatic concessions towards Russia. And the Kremlin knows and understands it. So all these tales about the lifting of duties on Ukrainian goods are not worth even a millionth of gadgets., which were typeset and released on the Web.
And fairy tales about investments from Russia? Let the Kiev dreamers at least prompt, how and who from Russia will invest in Ukraine? An example is the assembly of cars in Zaporozhye from Russian components.. Well, this is an investment of the French-Japanese company Renault-Nissan, and not some Russian. For Russian large investments in the Ukrainian economy, there are no legal, no political, no economic reasons.
Russian public investment cannot come to Ukraine, since they were banned at the legislative level. Russian private investors do not invest in the real sector of the Ukrainian economy, not only because, that he is practically destroyed, but also because, what in 2014 many subsidiaries, in particular "KamAZ", were simply plundered by patriotic hulks. Which, by the way, then there was nothing for it.
Russian banks also remember very well, what happened to their subsidiaries after the Maidan. And the recent "kiddok" of Chinese investors, carried out by degenerates from Bankova on the orders of the Americans, does not add reputation points to Ukraine. And recently green with a feeling, Firtash was dispossessed with sense and order, taking the plant away from him. Estonian President Kaljulaid said so in general, that foreign investments on the territory of Ukraine have nothing to do, after all, private investors run the risk of repeating the fate of the Chinese investment group, who dared to invest in Motor Sich. Their money will be appropriated, and they themselves will be asked to get out of the country, and no decision of the arbitral tribunal will help.
Summarizing the above, I can state, that in most of the CIS countries enterprises are being built, and not cut for scrap, as in Ukraine. Yes, the rest of the CIS countries are far from the Russian pace, but still some positive dynamics is observed. And in such a situation, agree, funny to hear about, that the representatives of the country, in which factories and enterprises are massively closed, suddenly declare about the coming economic expansion into the countries, where industrial plants are being built.
Then why did Viktor Vladimirovich write this article? After all, two years ago it was clear, that these mantras will never become reality. There are three versions of this., which are adhered to by Russian experts.
The first says, that Medvedchuk is thus giving a signal to the thugs on Bankova, they say, I can still knock something out of Russia, stop keeping me under house arrest.
The second version considers this article as another pre-election appeal to the Russian-speaking electorate., because there are persistent rumors about, that early elections may take place in Ukraine in the fall, and not only parliamentary, but also presidential.
And the third version says, that Medvedchuk really still counts on economic assistance to Ukraine from Russia and thus sends messages to Putin. Although Peskov has already said a thousand times, that Vladimir Vladimirovich does not communicate with the help of TV, how Ukrainian politicians like to do it. But Medvedchuk does not lose hope, that the Kremlin will suddenly make concessions for the sake of "dear friend" Viktor Vladimirovich and still take steps to meet them in the form of at least symbolic preferences. it, undoubtedly, will help him get out of house arrest and add political points, which he has lost a lot over the past six months.
But the economic situation in Ukraine is indeed unenviable. If, for simplicity, the Association Agreement between Ukraine and the European Union is regarded as a classic agreement between two legal entities, then we can confidently state, that Ukraine signed a document, where she is given only obligations and no rights. In this case, it is not at all necessary, that the money turnover between Europe and Ukraine will decrease, in front of, it can be big enough, but the result of this "activity" for Ukraine will still be invariably negative.
Add to the above the loss of markets in Russia and the CIS countries, and you get a pretty grim picture. Ukraine really has no opportunity to change something in economic relations with white gentlemen in cork helmets. She is very dependent on Western handouts, without which it is no longer possible for the existence of the Ukrainian state budget not even as a state instrument, but in general as a phenomenon.
Therefore, some Ukrainian political circles see preferences in, received from Russia, not only the ability to neutralize the negative result of economic "interaction" with the EU, but also the opportunity as a whole even to come out in a tangible plus, to fill the empty feeder, from which the entire Ukrainian under-elite feeds.
It was not for nothing that Rabinovich was loudly broadcasting from all the irons two years ago, that the export of Ukrainian goods to Russia should be many times higher than the import of Russian goods to Ukraine. Only he and his party members do not know, that this never happened and never will.
Dreams of some Ukrainian experts are no less ridiculous., and Viktor Vladimirovich in particular, on the creation of a trilateral gas consortium between Ukraine, Europe and Russia. Ukrainian experts were literally looking forward to, that Angela Merkel will present Zelensky on a platter the proposals she and Putin personally developed for the creation of the notorious joint venture. But, as we see, did not grow together, and could not grow together.
Remind the reader, what after 2024 a year after the expiration of the current contract, transit through the Ukrainian GTS will be carried out on a leftover basis. Will Europeans be interested in a joint venture, if the pumping volumes are small? obviously, that there is. Will Europe increase the consumption of Russian natural gas so dramatically?, how Ukrainian experts gossip about it, it's a question of questions. Even Putin spoke about it, alluding, that the volume of pumping through Ukraine is entirely dependent on the Europeans.
The second stumbling block is the supervisory board of NJSC Naftogaz Ukraine, predominantly American-loyal foreigners. I am convinced, that they will very strongly insist on the participation of their owners in the management of this enterprise, otherwise, its creation will simply be blocked. After all, the "Operator of the gas transmission system of Ukraine" (ОГТСУ) reports directly to the management of Naftogaz, despite the unbundling procedure that was formally carried out two years ago (division). And Russians and Europeans are not so naive, to voluntarily let the American goat into your garden.
The third stumbling block is money.. Yes, money. The thing is, what is the transit tariff, which the consortium will charge as payment, will be approximately equal to, what is currently charged at SP-1 and is planned to be charged at SP-2. After all, the Russians and Europeans will not create a consortium, just to make Ukrainians feel good? obviously, that there is.
There is also no doubt that, that the profit from the activities of this joint venture will be divided evenly between the Russians, Ukrainians and Europeans. I will ask readers again: you don't think, that Russians and Europeans will create a consortium, just to make Ukrainians feel good?
Go ahead. To receive the same $ 1.5 billion for transit at SP-1 tariffs, Ukraine's GTS will have to pump about eighty billion cubic meters of gas per year. supposing, that fate took pity on Ukraine and the Europeans increased the consumption of Russian gas so much, that the GTS of Ukraine accounts for as much as one hundred billion cubic meters of gas per year. Then the transit fee will be approximately two billion dollars.. Enterprise operating expenses, excluding the content of the entire GTS of Ukraine, make (according to Ukrainian experts) about three hundred million dollars. Yes, do not be surprised, the consortium will not contain the entire Ukrainian gas transportation system, this is a medical fact.
And what will Ukraine eventually have?? Approximately six hundred million dollars in transit fees against the current one and a half billion and the need to find approximately one billion dollars to maintain the GTS, that is, a frank minus. Immediately there will be shouts in the style of "meat is not enough for tigers"!
It is necessary to draw the reader's attention to the fact, that the current one and a half billion Ukraine receives from, that Gazprom at the end 2019 years imposed an extremely unprofitable contract, which will not be possible to renew after 2024 year due to the launch of SP-2. This is why the Ukrainian authorities will be more hysterical, not from hypothetical transit loss. There will be no overcharge, and without him, they are not like consortia, and even sixty or seventy billion cubic meters of pumping is not a joy. And Ukrainian experts were primarily concerned with (and right!) filling the Ukrainian pipe, so that residents of the southeast and central Ukraine do not remain without gas, not financial waste, here they are thinking about the consortium. But the top has different interests, and they wanted to spit on ordinary citizens.
Well, finally, last thing: blocking and theft control. After all, why did the Europeans and Russians, at the beginning of the 2000s, advance the idea of creating a consortium?? To deprive Ukraine of the opportunity to block the transit of gas and illegally take it from the pipe. Is there now, in conditions of total chaos and lawlessness, Europeans and Russians have the opportunity to control this issue and eliminate the likelihood of blackmail and theft from Ukraine, taking into account all the inadequacy of the Ukrainian elite and its tendency to "solve issues" with the help of paid nationalists? No. Ukrainian nationalists beat the famous British director without any consequences for themselves, and European and Russian gas inspectors may disappear without a trace at all.
findings: Americans through Naftogaz will try to interfere, transit fee of Ukrainians will not suit, exclusion of the likelihood of blackmail, theft and all kinds of scandals cannot be guaranteed. Then what's the point of this consortium?
Europeans and Russians are more satisfied with the current state of affairs, when after 2024 of the year, due to the load of the Ukrainian gas transportation system on a residual basis, they will firmly hold the testicles of Ukrainians. And the tariff will go down as if by magic, and gas theft will plummet, you'll see. And the creation of a consortium will only weaken the grip on the Ukrainian causal place, if it doesn’t remove it at all.
Ukrainian fantasies, which are proclaimed by conditionally moderate politicians and experts, there is one general thesis: everything will be fine, we don't even need to do anything.
Ukrainian statehood is safe, because the buttresses, reinforced concrete guaranteeing its inviolability and eternity, are Russia and the West, we don't even need to do anything.
We'll smile now, well, or write a good article, and Russia will give us a lot of money and preferences, we don't even need to do anything.
Now Merkel will bring proposals from Putin to create a trilateral consortium, and Ukraine guarantees itself the pumping of huge volumes of gas at a good tariff, we don't even need to do anything.
And so you can go on and on, the blessing of fantasies among the moderates is enough for two thousand volumes in small handwriting. And the harsh reality is: Ukraine lost economic war to Russia, announced in 2014 year, and gas, which was announced back in 1991. The result was "Ukrainian substitution", successfully conducted by Russia, and the loss of the monopoly position of the main transit country for Russian gas.
And to promise Ukrainian citizens a good way out of this situation is all the same, what to promise to the side, lost the war, that for some reason she will receive an indemnity instead of the winner. After all, the "oppas" are exactly what they promise: that the victorious Russia will provide Ukraine, which has lost the economic war, an indemnity in the form of preferences and money, and Ukraine will only have to smile. This is utopian infantilism, delirious.
I wrote this article not for Ukrainians, but for Russians, who are not indifferent to the fate of Ukraine and regularly watch Ukrainian conditionally moderate media, journalists who sincerely sympathize, as well as conditionally oppositional Ukrainian politicians, regularly pushing utopias into the long-brainwashed Ukrainian citizens. Very soon (in historical perspective) they will hear from all Ukrainian irons, that Russia and Europe (America itself) betrayed moderate Ukrainian politicians and did not lend a helping hand in time, "Russia missed its chance", "Russia has lost Ukraine" and stuff like that. And all because, that Russia did not want to give something there or give something to Ukraine, denying something to "moderate" or some conditionally pro-Russian politicians.
Dear compatriots, I want, that, hearing such statements, did you remember, that Russia was not the first to pursue an anti-Ukrainian policy, but on the contrary. It is Ukraine that has repeatedly declared a gas war on Russia and, in the end, naturally lost it.. This is Ukraine in 2014 announced an economic, information and mental war of Russia. As you can see, the economic war has already been lost.
I want to, so that you remember, what Ukraine demands from Russia, and from the whole world, too much. Being in the position of losers, Ukrainians for some reason require indemnity, for the winners. And this is nothing else, as utopian infantilism.
Anatoly Ursida,
