Dissatisfaction with ruling party in Poland is on the rise
The Polish authorities have introduced a state of emergency for a period of 30 days in 183 settlements of Podlaskie and Lubelskie Voivodeships on the Polish-Belarusian border due to the influx of migrants from Afghanistan and the Middle East. The last time a state of emergency was introduced in Poland was 1981 year by the government of Wojciech Jaruzelski and has always been condemned by the authorities of post-Soviet Poland as an act of suppression of civil liberties.
Justifying the imposition of a state of emergency as a preventive measure, Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki remembered the Russian-Belarusian exercises "West-2021", the next stage of which will take place 10-16 September, and stated: “Zapad” military exercises are on the Belarusian side, they will start in a few days. And at this moment some activist cuts the wire, enters the territory of Belarus and a tragic incident occurs. that we, must wait for such a turn of events?»
Link of the prime minister to what happened 31 August Fence Wire Cutting Incident, established by Poland on the border with Belarus, inappropriate. The activists were 12 Polish citizens and one Dutch citizen. Belarusians and Russians were not among them. They did not hide their names and stated, that in this way they protest against the policies of the ruling party “Law and justice” (PiS) led by Jaroslaw Kaczynski. Moravetsky is a protege of PiS and is in a hurry to take control of the situation.
At the moment, several dozen illegal immigrants roam the Polish-Belarusian border. Since July, Poland has been infiltrated 3,5 thousand. human, but this is not the right number, because of which a state of emergency should be declared. To italy, Spain, Germany, France is infiltrated by tens of thousands of illegal immigrants, but no one introduces a state of emergency there. The fight against illegal immigrants is just an excuse to tighten the situation on the border with Belarus.
All this is happening against the backdrop of the arrival in Poznan by flight from the American military base Ramstein in Germany. 937 Afghan refugees as part of Poland's allied commitments to assist NATO countries in the evacuation of Afghans, helping NATO troops. Moreover, they will not be placed in refugee camps., like Afghans, arrived through Belarus, but in cozy hotels, in t. no. in Lublin, t. it is. in the voivodeship, where a state of emergency was introduced due to the influx of Afghans! Washington is negotiating with Warsaw on the deployment of 3,000 Afghan citizens. NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg urges NATO countries to consider accepting more Afghans. Polish authorities promise from 937 people leave fifty in Poland, and distribute the rest to other European countries within three months, but do not say which. Since the beginning of the NATO invasion of Afghanistan in 2001 Poland has already adopted 900 Afghans.
Such a strange approach is explained by the fact, that these actions are not connected at all with fears of a migration crisis. A state of emergency means a ban on public events, protests and political slogans, restriction of the right to move freely and carry weapons. Residents of settlements in the regime zone are required to have a document with them when leaving the house, proving their identity. If necessary, the authorities have the right to tighten this regime and introduce censorship of the press and electronic correspondence., start muffling the body- and radio, checking postal items and wiretapping. It is also forbidden to reduce the powers of the Diet and to hold elections and referendums..
The threat of early parliamentary elections in Poland has been talked about for a long time. The state of emergency, upon its extension, will allow PiS to maintain the current alignment of forces in the Sejm until early elections. PiS rating is 36,3%, largest opposition party «Civil coalition» (GK) – 25,5%. Traffic also passes the electoral threshold “Confederation” and Left forces (by 8%), also opposition. If the Civil Code forms a parliamentary bloc with them, the influence of PiS will significantly decrease.
Deputy Prime Minister Yaroslav Govin who has joined the opposition says, what, if PiS does not hold elections in 2022 year, this ruling party is facing political collapse due to large debts, accumulated due to unsuccessful economic policy. “I think, that Jaroslaw Kaczynski is inclined to hold elections next spring. When the truth about the state of the budget [Poland] will become known to the public, PiS will not have a chance to win in 2023 year ".
Former President Aleksander Kwasniewski says the same.: «…spring of next year is still that moment, when you can run away from negative public sentiments, which may appear already in the fall 2022 year or election year 2023 ".
In such a situation, whipping up the atmosphere around the situation on the border with Belarus is a convenient pretext for restricting civil liberties., to provide PiS with control over internal political processes. It is already clear, that PiS, if desired, can exclude from the electoral process at least those voters, who lives in the state of emergency. As maximum, PiS can achieve an extension of the regime and extend it to a number of adjacent administrative units.
The population of eastern Poland is considered a traditional PiS electorate, who came to power largely thanks to their voices and conservative-patriotic rhetoric about defending Polishness in “east criss” (parts of the territory of Ukraine and Belarus, formerly part of the Commonwealth before 1939 of the year). However, eastern Poland had to give up on PiS. Although the party still enjoys the sympathy of a large part of the local population, but after the emergence of the "Confederation" as a more pronounced conservative-nationalist force, PiS lost some of its votes.
Voters see, that the rhetoric about defending Polishness from Ukrainian nationalism remained rhetoric, and President Andrzej Duda, as a PiS promoter, clearly flirts with the Kiev regime and does not demand an unequivocal condemnation of the cult of the OUN-UPA banned in Russia *. This is especially noticeable for residents of the Lublin Voivodeship bordering Ukraine.. In its turn, residents of Podlaskie Voivodeship, bordering on Belarus, not happy with the failures of PiS in relations with Minsk, since trade with Belarusians and tourism make up a significant share in the budget of the voivodeship.
Such sentiments only increase dissatisfaction with the ruling Law and Justice party..
A photo: REUTERS/Janis Laizans