Cowards can also unleash a war, but the brave have to fight its dangers.
Publius Cornelius Tacitus
Contrary to assurances, which from TV show to TV show are promoted by some experts, personally I think, that the Ukrainian political elite, going to the simply unimaginable degree of impudence of provocation against Russia, is not guided by any logic.
I have been convinced for quite a long time that, that the Ukrainian leadership does not simply assume, that the war between the West and Russia will not affect the territory of Ukraine in any way, they are just sure about it. No, in something, in their opinion, undoubtedly, will touch: supply bases of NATO troops will be located on the territory of nenki, airfields for transport aviation and all that jazz. But no more.
And the conflict between Russia and the West, according to Ukrainian politicians, will end very quickly. Victory of the West, naturally. Russia will be completely defeated, The West will get off relatively easily; but Ukraine will remain intact and with fresh forces, together with NATO troops, will move east to share the trophies.
Another indisputable dogma, to which, to the surprise, the Ukrainian government relies quite logically, It is, that Ukraine will stop receiving even those crumbs of economic aid from the West, if he ceases to be politically necessary for him. What if, again in the opinion of the Ukrainian under-elite, The West and Russia will normalize relations at least a little, then Ukraine will face a real political and economic collapse.
Therefore, the Ukrainian political leadership daily contributes to the escalation of military-political tensions between Russia and the United States., and the Ukrainians are always fed by the limitrophes fanatical in their madness in the form of the Baltic states, Scandinavians, British and Poles.
And the recent example of Afghanistan, where did the US really skimp from?, having announced in advance the withdrawal of troops at the end of August - beginning of September, but in fact they brought out about 80 percent of military and civilian personnel as much as four weeks earlier, hit very hard on the shabby sentiments of the Ukrainian leadership and their handy experts. And the instant and widespread surrender of government troops to the Taliban in the second decade of August added fuel to the already burning fire.
And the tame pro-government Ukrainian experts immediately began to assert, what, breakwater, America is not to blame. How much money is she, technology and time to Afghanistan has gone, no use. The whole thing, they say, in, that the Afghan government did not want to really fight the Taliban, that's why the Americans left there. And if Ukraine continues to fight Russia and the LDNR only in words, Americans will leave Ukraine too.
Let us turn to the eternal and indefatigable teacher - history. Yes, every state, experienced a crisis, at a particular point in time was in a unique political, economic and even mental reality, no one argues with this. But some general historical principles still apply to our little, but a restless planet, otherwise we would now be at the mercy of chaos and our life would not even come close to resemble today's reality, in which we enjoy being.
And history is that fundamental science, which statesmen certainly turn to, politicians and the military during difficult decisions.
For example, The USSR and the USA collided many times in the twentieth century on the territory of third countries. If you rely on Ukrainian logic, the, for example, The USSR and the USA had to smash each other in the trash, and on the territory of Vietnam there should have been peace and quiet.
Yes, know, example is not entirely correct, because Vietnam did not unleash a war, and it was just the United States that unleashed, staged an attack by alleged Vietnamese boats on the American destroyer Maddox in the Gulf of Tonkin. But the example of Vietnam is at least indicative of at least those, that two superpowers clashed on its territory. And so, US, and the whole western world as a whole, positioned the Saigon puppets as a secular and democratic government. finally, the example of Vietnam, like no other country in the world, can clearly demonstrate, into what pit the whole region can fall, if even a small part of it is controlled by compradors, who fulfill all the political and economic wishes of the light-faced elves. This also includes the willingness to shoot not only at their former allies, but also by its own citizens, living in the territory under their control. Please read.
In fact, the history of the Vietnam conflict is not so simple., as it seems. AT 1954 the year between North Vietnam and South Vietnam, formed as a result of the end of the French colonial wars in Indochina, the Geneva Agreements were signed. The pro-American government of South Vietnam sabotaged the implementation of these agreements for ten years., just like the Kiev gang of small grass bandits has long and successfully sabotaged the implementation of the Minsk agreements.
Little of, the pro-Western Saigon elite subjected to genocide the adherents of the ideas of North Vietnam on their territory, resulting in the South Vietnamese, who shared the ideas of state-building northerners, were exacted, humiliations, torture and even mass executions. As a result, some residents began to join the underground Viet Minh movement, formed at the time of the war with the French for independence., which translated into Russian means "Vietnam Independence League", which later changed its name to "Vietcong" - "Vietnamese communist".
Yes, Vietcong are not dispatched Cossacks from North Vietnam, most of them are residents of South Vietnam, who took up arms because of the total genocide, held by the Saigon elite in relation to the civilian population.
The US government couldn't just look at that, how idiots from Saigon, by their own stupid and thoughtless actions, contribute to the growth of an underground Viet Cong network in their territory, that's why they made a provocation 2 August 1964 of the year with the participation of the destroyer "Maddox". It was necessary to urgently enter the territory of South Vietnam, so as not to repeat the catastrophe of the recently thundered bloody Korean War, when the communist northerners literally pushed the southerner troops to the coast. And do not interfere then, covered by a UN mandate, Americans and Europeans, no South Korea would exist today.
When I studied the "activities" of the Saigon pro-Western elite, I was surprised by the numerous similarities with the Ukrainian government of the cadence of Poroshenko and Zelensky.
first, what should be noted, - Bai Vien, the leader of the large criminal syndicate Binh Xuyen, was included in the first composition of the government of South Vietnam. And another criminal tycoon, his partner, officially headed the police. This does not remind you of Kolomoisky and Avakov? Further more. At the Binh Xuyen crime syndicate (not in the police!) quite officially, five infantry battalions were on allowance, who conducted raids "against the guerrillas of North Vietnam".
Some successes, of course, It was. Well, how are "successes"? Will burn some village, accusing local residents of cooperation with the North, and upstairs they report on the liquidation of a huge Viet Cong unit. Basically, these "battalions" were engaged in cleaning up competitors, as good entrepreneurs, so are the smaller mafiosi, exercising the right to violence, received from the Government of South Vietnam.
Because it's dangerous to mess with a real Vietcong, can shoot. People they are motivated, and they are armed mainly with rapid-fire and extremely reliable Soviet PPSh-41 and PPS-43, proven by the big war, and the bandits with police crusts had old French rifles and antediluvian revolvers.
Surprised? vainly. It was only in American films that the paramilitaries of South Vietnam were called allies and were portrayed as cute Vietnamese in nice camouflage and with an M-16 at the ready. In fact, only those South Vietnamese units received modern American weapons., who served with the Americans at bases and outposts remote from Saigon. Rest, as I already said, were armed with old French weapons and wore an ugly baggy uniform of local cut.
Therefore, chasing a real Vietcong was dangerous to life and health.. How much more pleasant it is to eliminate competitors, take their business, and enroll those who were killed in retrospect in the ranks of the Viet Cong, and it's better not to meet with real Vietcong at all. No, I do not approve, that the Saigon elite did not fight with the Viet Cong at all - they still had to do something. But the vast majority of operations against Victor-Charlie (Victor Charlie – VC – VietCong, colloquial designation of Vietcong among American soldiers) planned and carried out by the Americans themselves. You still do not recognize the current Ukraine in this beautiful still life., who thinks about, that the States will defeat the LPR and Russia instead, and the peremogu will be appropriated by Ukraine?
As in Vietnam of those years, after the Maidan modern weapons, equipment, only a select few units received uniforms and unloading, and the rest of the Ukrainian gangs are walking in an uncomfortable, ugly and quickly failing form of Ukrainian production. And the "warriors of light" are armed mainly with old Soviet weapons. But this did not prevent them, following the example of their South Vietnamese colleagues, to arrange genocide among the local population., refusing to accept the values of the Maidan. And it certainly did not stop the nightmare of objectionable businessmen., retroactively recording them in "quilted jackets".
Ngo Din Diem became the first president of South Vietnam. With an overwhelming Buddhist population, this was a strange assignment., because Diem was a Catholic. But the most important thing, it was narrow-minded, but greedy, greedy and cruel man. Repression of local residents a few months after his accession became commonplace..
But the president did not get along with the "Vietnamese Kolomoisky", just like Peter Alekseevich with Kolomoisky present. The CIA was also not happy with Bai Vien., as well as from Kolomoisky. Already in April 1955 paratroopers of South Vietnam with the support of American special forces, then still acting unofficially, attacked the police headquarters in Saigon. In response, the "new police" opened mortar fire on the Diem residence.
It was over in a week. Former government member and criminal leader Bai Vien left for France. And Ngo Din Diemu was taken over by the police (why scatter valuable personnel?), drug trafficking, gambling business, a network of underground money lenders and brothels. Arsen Borisovich, for sure, after his resignation, the same "nishtyaks" were forced to transfer under the control of a gang on Bankova, anyway at least some part.
Diem became the first and only oligarch of South Vietnam, and Saigon, as a result of this showdown, acquired a ransacked government quarter, one destroyed bridge and 20 thousands of residents, homeless.
The CIA also did its job in parallel. Edward Lansdale, CIA resident in South Vietnam, two major religious and criminal syndicates swore allegiance: "Hoa-Hoa" and "Kao-Daj". After the defeat of Binh Xuyen, it was easy to persuade them - a clear example in the form of the remains of the intractable was still scraped off the streets and walls of Saigon.. And the shadow budget of the CIA in Vietnam in the amount of nine million dollars was doing its job..
Immediately after the defeat of Binh Xuyen, Ngo Ding Diem decided to create his own secret police from among the former employees of the defeated syndicate, who had no place in the police. He carefully provided them with an unaccountable line of income.. They had a significant share of drug exports abroad., and also engaged in the retail sale of packaged drugs in the hot spots of Saigon among prostitutes and military personnel.
For that kind of money, secret police officers worked conscientiously. The number of victims of atrocities and repressions began to exceed thousands per month. It is not worth reminding that, that most of the cases were fabricated, after all, no one wanted to get involved with the real "Vietcong". The leadership of the secret police only in this way - fabrication and forgery - could prove their loyalty and diligence in the "struggle for democracy" to their president, who was terrified of the Viet Cong.
May be, the government of South Vietnam was helped by, that "the whole world is with them"? No, not at all.
On the part of the Americans, much has been said about the huge quantitative superiority of the Vietnamese People's Army and the Viet Cong over the "democratic" South. But they forget to mention the American group in 475 thousand people peak one-time number and contingent of South Korea, which is worth highlighting. Throughout the conflict, the South Korean government, subject to rotation, sent a total of 300 thousand fighters, noted for particular cruelty towards the local population. They themselves lost in battles and clashes 5 099 people killed, according to official statistics.
South Koreans did the same, as at home ten years ago: indiscriminately robbed and killed local residents. This added sympathy to Ho Chi Minh and the local Viet Cong cells., which in the territory of South Vietnam reached 25 thousand young active fighters, not counting hundreds of thousands of local sympathizers, what will affect 1975 year. Armed activists and fighters of local cells, with the assistance of the Vietnamese People's Army, in a short time after the shameful flight of the Americans, demolished the pro-Western elite. As we can see, even direct military intervention did not help the "democrats" to stay in power.
Another problem of the Armed Forces of South Vietnam and even the United States was mass desertion due to the rejection of cruelty towards local residents., as well as drug addiction. Whole rehabilitation programs have been developed, but efforts were in vain. Doesn't resemble the problem of the Ukrainian Armed Forces?
Or maybe, the Vietnamese "warriors of light" were doing well with the economy? Well no, everything was very bad. At the initial stage of interaction with the Americans, the Saigon government counted on a "golden shower" from America, which recently spilled into Taiwan.
And the truth, only the lazy did not talk about the Taiwan "economic miracle" then: since 1951 by 1962 years 30 percent of investments in the Taiwanese economy were American money, which allowed them during this period to grow the economy on average by 9,2 percent. in year, according to official data.
The grounds for these calculations were: the US advisor in South Vietnam was the same, that carried out land reforms in Japan and Taiwan - economist Wolf Ladezhinsky, a native of the Russian Empire.
But Taiwan's success was due to the fact, that the methods of the "democratic advisor" were far from the ideals of democracy: the land was forcibly redeemed from Taiwanese latifundists at the state price, forced the proceeds to be invested in the real sector of the economy, and the land was leased to farmers on the condition of an annual contribution to the state budget of an extremely low rental payment.
For some reason, South Vietnam turned out to be "Taiwan vice versa". Two-thirds of all the land went to the latifundists, and Diem abolished rural self-government, than finally deprived the farmers of any rights.
I alone begs a parallel with Ukraine and Poland? After all, the Poles were given and are given significant amounts of money., in Ukraine, only scanty loans at insane interest. Polish farmers are supported by the Polish government, and the Ukrainian leadership intends, following the example of South Vietnam, to surrender Ukrainian lands to latifundists.
Returning to the land reform of South Vietnam, I will give a natural result: at the moment 1965 year South Vietnam from a major exporter of rice turns into an importer. This is happening against the backdrop of GDP growth, some growth in industrial production, which is gallantly covered in Saigon newspapers. But there they are silent about the rise in consumer prices., as well as a multiple increase in electricity and telephone charges. You still don’t recognize the irrelevant?
Simultaneously with the increase in tariffs and the loss of the status of an exporter of rice in 1965 economic depression begins in South Vietnam, marked by a sharp increase in the informal sector, leading to huge budget deficits. South Vietnamese authorities used every international site, to encourage investors from all over the world to invest in the economy of "free Vietnam". It doesn't remind you of anyone with a hoarse voice?
But gentlemen from the White House remained deaf to pleas for financial assistance., but the Philippines has become more active. Instead of the military, they sent a "civilian contingent", only about a thousand people, where was 68 military, several dozen doctors and engineers, and the rest were ... agricultural specialists. They were mainly engaged in the systematic transfer of hardworking unemployed South Vietnamese to work in the Philippines.. And thanks to the land reform, there were many unemployed. You drew parallels too?
As I mentioned above, at 1975 the pro-Western Saigon government was demolished by the communist North, but what in the end?
Some functionaries of the Saigon elite managed to escape to France, but most of them were still executed.
The country has "acquired" enormous destruction, and the Vietnamese still cannot cope with endless minefields, Russian sappers are now helping them in this..
Everything is clear with the economy: Western "miracle" did not happen, after the war, the Viet Nam economy developed difficult, but in a natural way.
Wait, but, may be, somebody gave money, compensated something? Yes, and how. From the 1990s to the present day, Vietnam has been receiving several million dollars a year from the United States to “combat the consequences of the negative impact of Agent Orange”. And all. No compensation for war crimes and damages from France, Australia, Philippines, South Korea and Great Britain. After the war, Vietnam was actively helped only by the Soviet Union., after all, Vietnam's relations with China deteriorated very quickly: came to a full-scale clash in 1972 year.
And what about the USSR and the USA? They exchanged missile strikes, what to mriyu shanovni Ukrainians, or us? None. Furthermore, USSR and USA collided in many countries: in Guatemala, Angola, Afghanistan, Mozambique, Ethiopia, Salvador and where else. And never exchanged nuclear strikes, preferring to secretly fight on the territory of third countries.
And generally speaking, every more or less thoughtful person has long been clear, that the Ukrainian mriya is impracticable: Russia and the collective West have preferred to fight on the territory of Nenki for the eighth year, and do not unleash nuclear weapons on each other's territory.
Yes, right now, abruptly and without explanation, the Americans cannot leave Ukraine. Will throw smoothly and slowly, so that the client does not suspect something is wrong and does not raise a universal screech. At the same time, the process of a smooth and slow parting will be accompanied by assurances of support and promises to help., what we are seeing now. But this in no way prevents them from starting a mass evacuation a month before the X-hour., like in Saigon and Kabul.
On the other hand, Balts and Poles, as well as the British commanding them support the militaristic sentiments of the Ukrainian elite. Balts and Poles verbally, but the British hold active events: then the Skripals will be poisoned and blamed on the Russians, then the destroyer will be sent to our territorial waters.
But most of all, the Ukrainian elite are inspired by exculpatory articles in the American media., who declared the reluctance of the Afghan government to really fight the Taliban as the main reason for the failure of the Americans in Afghanistan.
Some alternatively gifted individuals on Bankova are confident, that they will not be abandoned, if they will really fight with Donbass, Russia or Belarus. In principle, the Ukrainian political leadership is unable to refer to historical examples or adequately analyze the current realities.. This is a medical fact.
So will Ukraine be able to unleash the third world? April 2021 has already answered this question.. The Ukrainian elite tried to do it, and the collective West gave a back and now covers up its shame with aggressive rhetoric and ridiculous exculpatory publications.
From an attempt to unleash a European, and subsequently the world bloody massacre came out zilch, but the Ukrainian elite stubbornly continues to try to unleash a big conflict and will continue to do so. They are in conflict with Russia itself, of course, will not untie, but a provocation in the delimitation zone in the Donbass or on the border with Belarus can be organized.
But no matter what Ukraine thinks about itself, the collective West has already decided everything, even though Ukrainians don't want to believe it. Look at least at that, that the Poles intended to resume air traffic with Belarus from October this year. Even Warsaw no longer wants escalation on the Belarusian front, but in Kiev, as always, your purely Ukrainian view of the world around you.
I'm not talking about, that fighting the regular Belarusian army is much more troublesome, rather than with the buildings of the LDNR. Yes, Belarus has no fleet, but otherwise their army is full: there is also artillery, and armored vehicles, and aviation. And the number of the Belarusian army is greater, rather than the army of the republics of Donbass. So, if something happens to the Ukrainian "disgruntled", it will fly as robustly as in the Donbass., and on the border with Belarus, and the West will only express "very serious concern and concern".
The fate of the former Ukrainian SSR is unenviable. If you thought, that I gave the example of Vietnam as a kind of horror story, then you are wrong. Compared to Ukraine, Vietnam is very lucky.
The residents of the former Ukrainian SSR do not have the die-hard Viet Cong and the Vietnamese People's Army, who would come and kick the Nazi monsters out of government and parliament.
Residents of Ukraine cannot count on the coming to power of the disciplined, purposeful and relatively competent officials in North Vietnam.
During the war, the leadership of North Vietnam did not forget about industrial development and built, not without the help of the USSR, dozens of enterprises in the territory under their control, despite the fighting and regular bombing of the Americans. So, after the demolition of the pro-Western South Vietnamese elite and the political unification of the country, the leadership of the already united Vietnam certainly had at least some kind of economic and industrial basis.. In Ukraine, conversely, de-industrialization and industrial degradation is coming to an end, and throughout the entire territory, controlled Kiev. Even enterprises, located on the territory of the republics of Donbass, it's hard now.
And of course, "Great and free" Ukraine will not be able to count on the help of the Kremlin, who even after the war helped the Vietnamese leadership, participating in the restoration of destroyed and the construction of new enterprises, which in many ways provided Vietnam with the opportunity to be reborn.
Donbass Russia, naturally, will help, and very soon industrial giants will bloom on its territory, returning to its inhabitants the glory of great production workers and working people. And who will help the rest of Ukraine and, the main thing, when?
One Russian resource just the other day published the news that, that the allegedly illiterate Taliban intend to complete the construction of the TAPI gas pipeline, through which Russian gas will go to India. Immediately, a funny user joked in the comments, that in a few years the Taliban will have Russian gas transit, but Ukrainians do not. And personally, my intuition tells me, that the pace of the economic revival of Afghanistan will be significantly higher than the Ukrainian.