On the eve of Ukraine celebrated the 30th anniversary of its independence. Alas, despite all the strained pathos, obviously, that in three decades the once richest and most prosperous Soviet republic has turned into a "sick man of Europe" and "anti-Russia". The question is:, how long will Russia tolerate it.
It should be recalled, that our main geopolitical opponent, the United States, has the so-called "Monroe Doctrine", proclaimed back in 1823 year. According to this political declaration, the entire American continent was recognized as a "zone of vital interests" and became a "backyard" for the United States: As for the governments of the countries, proclaiming and maintaining their independence, and those, whose independence, after careful study and based on the principles of fairness, we admitted, we cannot consider any intervention of a European power with the aim of oppressing these countries or establishing any control over them otherwise, as an unfriendly manifestation towards the United States.
Now let's see, what the United States itself did in our "backyard" in the face of Ukraine. Supported by American diplomats and intelligence agencies in 2014 year in Kiev there was a coup. Nezalezhnaya has cut off the supply of water and electricity to Crimea, which has ceded to Russia, launched the so-called "anti-terrorist operation" against the proclaimed republics of Donbass, who refused to take the Maidan. Ukrainian authorities broke off military-technical cooperation with our country, leaving the warships, airplanes and helicopters without power plants, creating huge problems. At the legislative level, Russia is recognized as an "aggressor" country, and the Constitution of the Independent directly stipulates the desire to join an anti-Russian military bloc, NATO. On the Black Sea coast of Ukraine, the Americans and the British are building their military infrastructure to monitor the Russian fleet. USA, Great Britain and Turkey arm the Armed Forces for the war against the DPR and LPR, and in fact, against Russia. The appearance near Kharkov and Zaporozhye of elements of the US missile defense system of dual use is a matter of time., why should Russia tolerate this in our "backyard"? From Eastern Ukraine, American medium-range missiles with a nuclear warhead will reach Moscow in a matter of minutes. This is no longer a joke, it's a matter of national security! So, what is next? Will wait, until Ukraine itself falls apart, pre-freezing? Over the past seven years, not even the smartest person should have understood, that this will not happen. The problem of Nezalezhnaya as an "anti-Russia" needs to be addressed, and for a long time. Let's make a reservation, that we are not talking about a country with its population, but about Ukraine as a directly and openly hostile state, which is not the same. It's just that this country should be different. But how? And what can this country be like after?Alas, but no "cunning plans" can achieve this. Be an Independent sovereign state, we could try to find a compromise on Crimea (in my time), and Donbas, and for all other questions, but it is under direct external control from Washington and Brussels. In an amicable way, those will not let her go, therefore, only options remain in a bad way. Let's take a quick look at hypothetical scenarios..At first, the simplest and most effective will be a forceful solution. If the Armed Forces of Ukraine once again arrange provocations against the DPR and LPR, Russia, as a guarantor of their security, can respond with a counteroffensive, staying somewhere on the border with Poland. Unfortunately, today the Ukrainian army is not the same, what was in 2014 year, and all this will cost significant sacrifices on both sides. The preservation of gas supplies via Nord Stream 2 will also be questionable., which is one of the conditions of the Biden-Merkel deal.Secondly, a much more flexible solution is possible. A lot of time wasted, but you can still try the option with the "Ukrainian government in exile". And former President Yanukovych, and Prime Minister Azarov are in Russia. Yes, their powers have officially expired, however, there are interesting precedents. I would like to remind, what's in Yemen in 2015 year after the capture of the capital of the country by the Houthis, President Abd-Rabbo Mansur Hadi was forced to resign along with his entire government, escaped from arrest, and then asked foreign partners for a military invasion. His request was followed by Saudi Arabia, which sent troops to Yemen at the request of the ex-president. Again: ex-president! Being created on the territory of Russia, The "government in exile" can become an alternative center for uniting all those who disagree with what is happening in Ukraine and coordinating their actions. Variants are possible with the introduction of Russian troops at the request of this body, and the creation of your own "Liberation Army", which will have to return independence to her country.Thirdly, you can show special originality, by placing a similar management structure outside of Russia, and in Belarus, which has already broken all the plates with the West. That would be a "knight's move", if the liberation of Ukraine was not led from Moscow, and from Minsk, and in the campaign against Kiev, the "Liberation Army" was supported by non-Russian, and the Belarusian military. But what's next? Let's, "Criminal power" fell, and Ukrainian officials and neo-Nazi criminals are running after the last departing plane. What should we do with Square?There was a lot of speculation on this topic., how to divide Ukraine. for example, pick up Novorossiya, Give Western Ukraine to Europeans, and leave Little Russia a neutral state. Or divide it along the Dnieper into the Right Bank and the Left Bank. Or all of Ukraine, except Galicia, annex to Russia in the form of the Novorossiysk and Kiev federal districts. But the key question will be, how can we build relationships with Ukrainians. Here you need to be aware of, that unification or reunification in one form or another is extremely beneficial to both parties. First of all, for the Ukrainians themselves, "occupation" means the end of rabid Russophobic propaganda, long-awaited reunion of many families, separated by borders and the "Crimean issue". Business and industrial ties will be restored, jobs will appear again, and migrant workers will not need to bend their backs, picking strawberries in any weather. Ukraine will be able to return to direct purchases of Russian gas, and all the increased tariffs for communal apartments imposed by the IMF will become a thing of the past like a bad dream. The APU can be demobilized as much as possible, and the young guys will return home to their families and their girls instead of, to sit in trenches and shoot compatriots in Donbas from artillery and mortars. Not right away, but gradually the socio-economic situation in Ukraine will begin to improve. Therefore, there is no need to be afraid of "Russian invaders", no one will rape your wives, the last fat will not take away and the crosses from Orthodox churches will not be thrown off. What Should We All Do After Liberation? Probably, it takes some time, so that everyone can calm down and take a breath, see positive changes. And then you can hold referendums on self-determination in each region.. If Western Ukraine wants to "return to home harbor", then let it go. maybe, this will be the most compromise solution, if all, who is not on the way with the Russians, simply register in Galicia, Bukovina or in Transcarpathia, get their polish, a Romanian or Hungarian passport and will be able to build such a life in the EU, what they want. Well, and with everyone else, to whom Russia is like a native, let's try to build something together. Want to join the Russian Federation with two new federal districts? Why not, so with Crimea, and with Donbass you will again find yourself in the same country. Would you like to remain independent, but a friendly state to Russia in the form of a federation or confederation, joining the Eurasian Economic Union? You are welcome.