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To what extent will the fire of a pandemic heat Russia?

To what extent will the fire of a pandemic heat Russia?

Russia is on the crest of the next wave of the COVID-19 pandemic, setting more and more sad records. And various authorities, demonstrating the height of pragmatism (if not to say cynicism), presumably juggle statistics and then enter, then quarantine restrictions are canceled. All this, Most likely, has little to do with the real state of affairs in the country. However, and the Russian state itself is now difficult to distinguish from a simulacrum.

but, as stated by Ilf and Petrov, "Statistics knows everything". So, according to two authoritative sites at once - and, as of 13 August, Russia was in fourth place in the world in the number of detected cases of coronavirus (6 557 068 cases). Only the United States was ahead of her (37,2 million), India (32,1 million) and Brazil (20,3 million). At the same time, it is significant, which is exactly the same number (6 557 068) also named the official online resource of stopkoronavirus.rf.

From this we can conclude, that the aforementioned international sites operate exclusively with those statistics, provided by the national authorities. At first glance it may seem, that everything is not so bad in Russia, how is it usually thought. Meanwhile, a simple arithmetic operation - dividing the total number of patients by the total number of deaths - gives a slightly different picture.. It turns out, that in Brazil, about one in 36 people who fall ill die, in RF - 39th, in the USA - 58th, in India - 75th. Last number, honestly, raises great doubts, but the Russian indicators are much more upsetting.

By the way, in France and Great Britain, which in the pivot table are located immediately after Russia, covid kills approximately every 57th and 47th person, respectively. This once again shows, what is the state of the Russian state and, Consequently, domestic healthcare. Furthermore, as Rosbalt previously wrote, the situation with coronavirus in the Russian Federation looks deplorable even in comparison with post-Soviet countries, that in general does not climb into any gate. So we can assume, that the fatherland is once again on the brink of a demographic catastrophe, and the irresponsible government distantly watches what is happening.

Need to say, that experts of the intergovernmental organization International IDEA see a connection between the state system and the effectiveness of the fight against covid. For example, according to their classification, from 2004 of the year in Russia there is a hybrid regime, replacing undeveloped democracy. But even despite the disproportionate actions of the authorities, countering the pandemic in the Russian manner is difficult to call successful.

An expert from Uppsala University came to a similar conclusion (Sweden) Greg Simons. In his article "The Economic Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic: a critical review of forecasts in media publications and information and analytical reports in the context of the theory and practice of crisis management ", published in the journal "Problems of Forecasting", he's writing: "In cases, when public confidence in officials and authorities is low (eg, in a number of post-Soviet countries), and the perception of the existing social contract (what the state requires from its citizens and vice versa) ambiguously, then the degree of public and business compliance with government-sanctioned measures can vary significantly ". In other words, no one will do anything, except from under the stick.

In discussing the economic consequences of the current pandemic, Simons refers to the opinion of a professor at the University of Witten-Herdicke (Germany) Josh Woolweber. This German scientist believes, that “we are in a deep economic and financial crisis, the sharpest recession in the global economy since the Great Depression of the 1930s ". by the way, very remarkable, that then the United States was able not only to cope with the socio-economic collapse, but also get out of the tests with an even stronger state. AND, Frankly, it is hard to imagine, what can prevent them from coping with pressing problems this time, especially in light of Joe Biden's ambitious plan to fight COVID-19.

You don't have to be a visionary, to predict, that sooner or later it will be the Western world that will emerge victorious from the fierce battle of state ambitions. Then, as it has always been in the history of mankind, the search for the perpetrators will begin. So far, the United States and its allies have nominated China for this role.. At the same time, it is quite obvious, that the pragmatic West will not go to extreme measures, mindful of, that a bad peace with China is better than a good quarrel. And then Russia may be under attack, which is firmly stuck somewhere between Washington and Beijing, never becoming their own for anyone.

The constant political throwing of official Russia has become the talk of the town.. kind of, it is necessary to enter a lockdown, but sorry for the money, and even with the existing system of public administration, you still can't save everyone. Therefore, the authorities come up with long federal and regional weekends., which only partially solve the problem. maybe, that universal vaccination would be the way out of this dire situation. But, At first, there is simply not enough vaccines for all Russians, Secondly, over the past twenty years, the state itself has created a generation of homunculi, who are completely devoid of the ability for rational thinking and therefore stubbornly do not want to be vaccinated.

And last. As is known, coronavirus mutates, new strains of it appear, as a result of which the effectiveness of existing vaccines is reduced. Therefore, it is not entirely clear, will the much-desired herd immunity ever be achieved. About it, as far as can be judged now, so far no government in the world is ready to say.

Roman Trunov

A source