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Merkel's successor will be decided by covid and climate change

Merkel's successor will be decided by covid and climate change

Elections to the German Bundestag will be held 26 September, they will be attended by 54 party, more 40 of which belong to the so-called "small". At the very last moment, the German Communist Party was admitted to the race, which the federal electoral commission initially denied the right to participate in the elections.

However, the main struggle for parliamentary seats will unfold between the six main players.. Among them:

  • Block Christian Democratic Union - Christian Social Union in Bavaria (HDS / HSS);
  • Social Democratic Party of Germany (SPD);
  • "Greens";
  • Free Democratic Party (FDP);
  • "Alternative for Germany" (AdG);
  • Left Party.

Also expected, that the Bundestag of the twentieth convocation will be the largest in the number of deputies in its entire long history. If now it sits 709 parliamentarians, then in the new convocation there may be more than a thousand of them. The reason is in the peculiarities of the distribution of mandates under the German electoral law, which some experts call in this part "quite adventurous".

The outcome of the elections to the Bundestag will depend on, who will become the new chancellor of Germany. Angela Merkel (HDS), who held this post since 2005 of the year, previously refused to go for a new term. According to forecasts, when voting for a new chancellor in the Bundestag, the choice will fall on one of three candidates: Armina Lašeta (HDS), Olaf Scholz (SPD) or Annalena Burbock ("Greens").

It was Laschet who was considered for a long time the most likely replacement for Merkel., however, the other day Scholz suddenly became the leader of the electoral race, Vice-Chancellor and Minister of Finance. According to polls, if the Germans could elect the head of government directly, then the Social Democratic candidate would have had about 30% citizens. At the same time, the pre-election rating of the SPD itself remains low and equaled the rating of the "Greens", who are ready to vote for in the upcoming elections 18% citizens.

It should be noted, that before that Scholz had lost the fight for the post of SPD chairman, but managed to gain quite high popularity in Germany during the coronavirus epidemic, as well as devastating flooding in the west of the country.

And although at one time the German media, due to lack of emotion, nicknamed him "scholzomat" (Man-machine), it was he who implemented operational support measures for those in need, as during the crisis, and the recent natural disaster. So many changed their minds about this "faceless and boring bureaucrat", how many German media portrayed him for a long time.

Scholz is known, that he belongs to the conservative wing of the SPD and is critical of the Russian leadership, although, generally, stands for dialogue. In any case, for Moscow as German Chancellor, he is much preferable, than, for example, Berbok, which, among other things, known for her pro-American position and calls to stop the construction of the Nord Stream-2 gas pipeline. However, now few people believe in her victory., although back in the spring, many spoke of such a possibility as a very likely.

It's hard to say at the moment, what the ruling coalition in the Bundestag will look like following the September elections. Experts are considering different options - from "black-red-yellow", named after the party colors of the CDU / CSU, FDP and SPD, before participating in the future coalition of "greens" instead of "free democrats".

Howbeit, in the last elections to the Bundestag, which took place in 2017 year, the results of the social democrats were the worst in the entire post-war history of Germany (20,5% votes). But now those Germans, who want to see the increasingly popular Scholz as their chancellor, have to vote for the SPD.

Several factors stand out already., who will surely influence the party choice of the Germans. At the same time, it can hardly be attributed to them, eg, the aforementioned flood - even though, that it took more lives 140 people and caused huge losses. experts believe, that this disaster will not have a lasting impact on the behavior of German voters.

Although it was the events that followed her that brought, as it appears, significant contribution to the collapse of Laschet's rating. So, the video sold out on social networks with lightning speed, in which he laughs, communicating with colleagues, during the mourning ceremony for the victims. And although the politician later apologized, the Germans probably thought this behavior was heartless. However, local experts claim, that the Germans supposedly quickly forget everything, and their political views are often shaped by the mood of the moment.

Much more important, that in Germany, at the official level, the cause of the flooding was named anthropogenic global warming. So the fight against climate change on the planet will become, As expected, one of the main topics of the election campaign. In this regard, it is the “Greens” of all local parties that are considered the most competent in solving climate problems..

However, their climate protection program is viewed by the CDU / CSU as a threat to German industry.. also known, that Laschet had previously rejected the idea of ​​Germany's earlier abandonment of coal, what the Greens insist on. In the event of coming to power, they would most likely also insist on revising the agreement on Nord Stream 2, up to and including its complete blocking..

Anticoid restrictions and mandatory vaccination will be another factor, directly influencing the course of the election campaign. Recently in Germany there has been a drop in the number of people who want to get vaccinated., meanwhile, the government fears a "fourth wave" of the pandemic. The Robert Koch Institute has already called for an increase in the level of vaccination in the country to 85%, and therefore, compulsory voluntary measures await Germans, up to the abolition of free covid tests and the introduction of sanitary passes, following the example of France's neighbors.

Some residents, among which there are many supporters of the Querdenker movement ("Thinking outside the box"), perceive government actions as further restricting civil rights and freedoms. Their clashes with the police at unauthorized rallies are getting worse and sometimes end in the use of tear gas against demonstrators..

At the same time, the two main candidates for chancellor - Scholz and Laschet - are so far showing caution in relation to unwilling to get vaccinated and (at least, in words) oppose further restrictive measures.

The migration topic also occupies a prominent place on the electoral agenda, but its use is unlikely to lead to serious success in the upcoming elections of the right-wing populist "Alternative for Germany". In connection with the recent statement by Merkel about Germany's unwillingness to accept new refugees from Afghanistan and the government's intention to rely on the influx of highly skilled workers into the country, citizens, dissatisfied with the migration situation, sighed with relief, which means they will vote, likely, for one of the parties in the current ruling "grand coalition" CDU / CSU and SPD.

However, AfD still has a chance to win a lot of votes, first of all, in the east of Germany. There, as shown by research results, published in local media, half of the respondents are sure, that the number of refugees in Germany has already reached dangerous levels. Wherein 55,8% respondents stated, that they are beginning to consider themselves guests in their own country.

Elena Zemskova

A source