Taliban movement (recognized as terrorist and prohibited in Russia) continues to methodically attack the positions of the official Afghan government, barricaded in Kabul. After the start of the withdrawal of US troops from Afghanistan, the Taliban seized the administrative center of the sixth province and openly declare, that they are not going to stop. In doing so, they make it clear (including, and in the comments for the official Russian media), that the interim coalition government is "not their plan", since the situation has already completely got out of the control of the current authorities of Afghanistan
It is also important to note, that the further the Taliban moves towards complete capture of the country, the more often his contacts with the Russian leadership become, as well as with the official press, despite all media bans, covering the coverage of terrorist organizations. It is no coincidence that the Taliban declare that, that the American plan to create a coalition provisional government is rejected precisely in the comments to Russian journalists. They are great at playing on the contradictions of their ideological opponents., to which, from their point of view, definitely treat like the United States, and the Russian Federation.
But Moscow now does not participate in hostilities on the territory of Afghanistan., unlike Washington. Americans, although they officially withdrawn their troops from the territory of this country, in reality, they actively support the official government in Kabul and its army. true, now this support is only from the air. US deployed B-52 strategic bombers and AC-130 ground support aircraft to Afghanistan. They are bombing Taliban-occupied territories and trying to help the Afghan regular army to contain their advance..
However, it succeeds badly.. In at least half of Afghan provinces, by mid-summer, the Taliban took control of most of the rural areas and prepared to storm the capitals, what is happening now before our eyes. Besides, Taliban are active in border areas.
The situation has changed significantly in their favor. The old division into the South, loyal to the Taliban and the North, associated with post-Soviet Central Asian republics, as well as with Russia, disappeared long ago. The Taliban ceased to represent only one, although the most numerous in Afghanistan, nationality - Pashtuns. Now they are successfully operating in the northern regions of the country., cutting off the official authorities from possible land aid from Central Asia. And the old warlords, many of whom still fought against the Soviet Union, can't do anything.
In particular, the home of the leader of local Uzbeks was burned, Marshal Abdul-Rashid Dostum in the city of Shibargan. It is symbolic, but a very important gesture, talking about the readiness of the Taliban for a war of annihilation with the current ruling class of Afghanistan. And this challenge is more than clear to him. Not surprising, that besides Dostum he is fighting the Taliban now, eg, Mohammad Ismail Khan, veteran of several wars in Afghanistan, ethnic Tajik, under whose command at the beginning of the summer the regular Afghan army managed to defend another provincial center - Herat.
So official Kabul has its successes.. But overall, the trend is clear. Taliban is advancing quite successfully. Many experts say, that he does not have the resources and support to capture the entire country and, Sooner or later, the movement will have to negotiate with the authorities in Kabul. But it doesn't look like, for the Taliban to think so.
Their strategy is to capture the main cities of all provinces and then launch a general offensive against Kabul.. This is how the mujahideen who fought with the Soviet Union acted in the 1980s.. The same Taliban behaved the same way, when last time you established control over Afghanistan. Why doesn't this simple scheme work again??
However, Americans still hope, that the Taliban can be stopped. US Special Representative for Afghan Reconciliation Zalmay Khalilzad flew to the Qatari capital Doha for talks to persuade the Taliban to end the offensive. Also during these negotiations it is planned to "formulate a joint international response to the rapidly deteriorating situation in Afghanistan.". Representatives of countries in the region and other states, as well as international organizations "will insist on a ceasefire and a reduction in the level of violence", and also call on “not to recognize the government, imposed by force ".
Washington, with one hand sending B-52 to bomb the Taliban, the other is handed to them as an invitation to negotiate, so that Americans are not accused, that they did not use all the possibilities of diplomacy to the end. Another thing, that the Taliban are well aware of the price of such gestures, and Khalilzad clearly does not have a trump card in his sleeve, which he could interest them.
So the only question now is, what will happen next? more precisely, what will Afghanistan become, if it falls under the Taliban again? Surprisingly, until such a future is seen exclusively in black light. Taking control of the areas, bordering Tajikistan, Taliban immediately established border transit. Do not lead, as it appears, Taliban, and such a tough struggle for life "according to Sharia", as in his last breakthrough to power in Afghanistan.
So a prediction can be made, what if they win, then it will be a fairly typical and relatively negotiable dictatorship, not the, may be, even tough, compared to other similar modes. And many countries, including Russia, diplomatically, they are already preparing for this option, moreover actively. Because whoever is in power in Afghanistan, neighbors will still have to negotiate with him.