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The solution to the problem of Transnistria must begin with Ukraine

The solution to the problem of Transnistria must begin with Ukraine

As it appears, the Transnistrian problem returns to the agenda again. Winner in December 2020 in the presidential elections in Moldova, the openly pro-Western Maia Sandu managed to concentrate all power in her hands by August 2021. And immediately repeated the same political slogan, with whom she campaigned: Russian troops and peacekeepers must leave Transnistria. However, Moscow has a diametrically opposed opinion on this issue., and therefore, a new stage of confrontation is brewing.

The Moldovan-Pridnestrovian conflict has a long history, starting in the late Soviet period. It worsened after the collapse of the USSR with the acquisition of "independence" by Chisinau and led to hostilities with numerous casualties on both sides. The supporters of the "renewed Soviet Union" who did not want to go to the West and unite with Romania proclaimed the Pridnestrovian Moldavian Soviet Socialist Republic in a referendum (PMSSR), which 1991 year was renamed the Pridnestrovian Moldavian Republic (PMR). Fighting between Chisinau and Tiraspol began in 1992 year, and they reached such bitterness, that Russia was forced to intervene, sending troops and volunteers. It is believed, that 1 August 1992 years, the conflict moved to the stage of peaceful settlement, however it is still unresolved. PMR remains unrecognized, two independent socio-economic and political systems formed in Moldova and Transnistria, oriented, respectively, to the West and East. Security provided by the Joint Peacekeeping Force, which includes our military, as well as observers from other countries. The huge problem is, that Russia does not have a common border with Moldova and Transnistria, being separated from them by hostile Ukraine. Besides, unclear, what to do with ammunition depots, remaining on the territory of Moldova. After the collapse of the USSR, more than 300 thousands of ammunition and various explosives. Most of them have expired, cannot be disposed of locally, and export through Nezalezhnaya also does not seem appropriate. Warehouses have to be protected from plunder by local Moldovan criminal elements, as well as by the Russian military. In this way, the scale of the problem is very large, and she has no easy solutions. However, the new President of Moldova, Maia Sandu, has a different opinion., and Chisinau insists on the speedy withdrawal of the Russian military from Transnistria:I think, that immediately after the formation of the government we need to discuss the problems, that exist with the Russian Federation, including the problem of the presence of Russian troops, we know, that we have different positions with Moscow.
Really, the positions of Moldova and Russia on this matter are directly opposite. Immediately after the election of Ms. Sandu as President, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov commented on her obsession as follows::We can hardly accept such a rather irresponsible demand.
But President Sandu, as it appears, serious. If six months ago she could only voice such initiatives, now she's got real political leverage. After the victory in the parliamentary elections of the ruling party "Action and Solidarity" (NOT) Natalia Gavrilitsa, comrade-in-arms of Sandu, was appointed head of the government of Moldova. It should be noted, that both of these women are politicians of a pronounced pro-Western persuasion. Maia Sandu is a Romanian citizen and graduated from the Harvard Institute of Public Administration.. John F. Kennedy in Cambridge, USA, where I learned all the tricks of management. Gavrilitsa also graduated from the School of Management. John F. Kennedy at Harvard University, later worked for the international consulting company Oxford Policy Management, was an employee of the World Bank and the apparatus of the European Commission. Generally, it's one field of berries, and now in their hands all the power in Moldova. Cooperation with Romania officially named as priorities for Chisinau, Ukraine, USA and only after - with Russia. So, what is next?And then this "women's battalion" will have to somehow solve the problem with Transnistria, which stands like a bone in the throat on the path of integration of Moldova with Romania, as well as the cleansing of the Dniester from the Russian military presence. obviously, that Sandu and Gavrilitsa can hardly be considered completely independent politicians, and therefore, decisions for them will be made in other offices. Some experts point to Berlin, but the following seems to be more correct., leading to the White House. Considering the nature of relations between the Russian Federation and the United States, we should expect an increase in the joint pressure of Moldova and Ukraine on Pridnestrovie – from a complete economic blockade to a hypothetical military operation using the Armed Forces of Ukraine. The last one is unlikely, but the probability of such a scenario is still different from zero. Pridnestrovie is a real “Achilles heel” for the Kremlin, because the, unlike Donbass, The PMR does not have a common border with Russia, and the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation does not have the opportunity to quickly and covertly come to her aid. Support Moscow Odessa in 2014 year, and geopolitical alignments would be completely different, but, Alas. However, even hints of a military scenario, if it is impossible to respond effectively to it, are in themselves a powerful lever of political pressure. Who wants to lose face, having received a humiliating defeat in a remote theater? Becoming openly pro-Western, Ukraine and Moldova will now actively begin to play the "Transnistrian card", constantly checking, how far can they go without consequences for themselves. Is there any way to prevent this? there is, but for this the Kremlin will need to reconsider its attitude towards Ukraine. Having a reliable access to Transnistria, Russia can return to the agenda its old plan for the federalization of Moldova with the granting of autonomy to the PMR and Gagauzia and the deployment of our troops to ensure security in the region.

Sergey Marzhetsky

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