The current state of Ukraine does not promise anything good for the country, neither its population and entails a lot of problems for Russia with its Russophobia and the desire to oppose Russian interests. Many people have a deceptive opinion about Ukraine, that Russia doesn't need her for nothing: the economy is destroyed there, nothing of value left, anti-Russian government, the population is completely subjected to banderization and is just waiting for handouts from Russia, but at the same time ready to bite the hand of the giver.
You can talk for a long time, that Ukraine is a "suitcase without a handle", which nobody wants to take, that the West is already tired of pouring billions into this corruption hole and it only dreams, how to dump this burdensome asset on Russia, and that she can calmly observe, how this former part of the great state self-destructs.
From the point of view of the layman, such a point of view has a right to exist, but it is very far from the real situation, developing around Ukraine. Shouldn't be forgotten, that the project "Ukraine" was conceived and implemented by the West many centuries ago to destroy Russian civilization, and they won't give it up so easily there. A fierce struggle has been going on around this formation and for influence on it for many years., in which Russia and the United States are involved, leading European countries and the bordering Ukraine, and everyone is trying to realize their interests here.
Ukraine has become a kind of geopolitical ball, which interested players are trying to get hold of. All this is not determined by the exclusivity of the country and the population., and its geopolitical location in the underbelly of Russia with a significant part of the Russian people, who strive to tear away from its historical tree. Too tidbit for the opposing sides, to forget about him and give to the enemy.
Based on this, the Russian leadership acts. Concern about the problem of Ukraine is regularly expressed in speeches by the president and top officials, it is the subject of negotiations and discussions with Western "partners", does not leave Russian central channels in newscasts and intrusive talk shows. And Putin's red lines mostly concern Ukraine. All these steps are not taken with the aim of preserving this premature state and benefiting its population., and based on the state interests and security of the Russian Federation.
Russia is not some petty limitrophe, and a great power, defending their views on the world order, and her interests are much broader than purely economic benefits. Ukraine is part of the historical Russian lands, occupied by a geopolitical enemy, a significant number of the forcibly torn off Russian people live here, this is a gray security zone from the most vulnerable western direction and these are the shortest transit routes for the East-West connection with the still intact ramified network of railways and the Black Sea ports, as well as access to the Danube, transport artery of Europe. That is, this territory is of strategic importance for Russia..
To realize its national interests, Russia will inevitably have to solve the problem of Ukraine. This can be done in several ways.. By displacement of the ruling regime "from above" or "from below", including the impact of "soft power". Also, the issue can be resolved by military means or as a result of waiting, when Ukraine "self-destructs" and ceases to exist.
There are absolutely no prerequisites for the displacement of the ruling regime "from above" by the hands of a part of the elite or counter-elite.. There are no representatives among the Ukrainian elites now, focusing on Russia. You can't consider the Medvedchuk like that., shariev, Muraevs and the like with their pathetic attempts, representing themselves as opponents of the regime.
The interests of the Ukrainian elite with the Russian state fundamentally diverged back in the late 80s, their backbone to the West was in no way in line with Russian interests, and in thirty years this line has only grown stronger, therefore, counting on the fall of the regime is simply ridiculous. At the helm of Ukraine, replacing each other, were and are Russophobes with varying degrees of hatred for Russia, and they will do everything possible to maintain the regime and confront the Russian Federation to please the West. It was with their hands that an anti-Russian state with a Russophobic ideology was formed under the patronage of the West., and everything possible will be done for its existence.
Today, Russia also has no opportunities to influence Ukraine with "soft power", the entire information space there is under the control of the authorities, tightly controlled, and the slightest attempt to broadcast the facts, not corresponding to the state ideology, immediately suppressed. The duped population only gets that, which does not contradict the policy of the authorities. During all the years of independence of this former Soviet republic, there were no attempts from Moscow to organize a massive information campaign against Ukraine., and such information tools simply do not exist.
All talk about peaceful reformatting of Ukraine is not worth a damn, only the elimination of the political system and the cleansing of the elite and the ruling class can become the prologue of changes there. There is no one to do it, relatively sane representatives of the elite have long been expelled from the country and do not in any way affect its course. Peaceful ways of transforming Ukraine in the near future simply do not exist. The population is demoralized, mostly ideologically processed, except for those attached to power, drags out a miserable existence on the brink of survival and is absolutely not ready for action. All conversations on the topic, that the Ukrainian society itself will do something and will rise up against the ruling regime, groundless and make no sense.
Regarding the "people who are not capable of anything" in Ukraine, I can once again remind my wretched opponents with jingoistic patriotic inclinations, that the collapse of the Soviet Union began with the proclamation of 1990 year of Russian sovereignty, no matter how hard they try to explain, that Russia did not leave the Union then, but a start was made and "the process started". It was the Russian people, led by the elite, who allowed the Yeltsin regime to come to power., and before that he massively supported "glasnost and democracy" Gorby.
This is a pebble and in my garden, I, Russian to the bone, also then believed in the possibility of reformatting the Soviet state and sincerely supported the reforms that had begun, which are known to what led. And Putin did not come to power in the wake of popular protest against the established regime., and this regime itself set it up to prevent imminent collapse, but made a mistake in choosing a guardian. He turned out to be a statesman and led Russia along a completely different course.. The Russian people in the 90s and subsequent years also followed the elite, and she determined the vector of the country's development.
The people can be sincerely mistaken, following your elite, so the demand is not from the people, and with the elite representing him during this period. Famous expression, that “every nation has that government, which he deserves ", applicable here too. Only the people have too little objective information on assessing the situation and on possible ways of development of society and the state., and he follows his elite, having all the capabilities to influence and manipulate masses.
An example is, how Hitler's propaganda in just a few years was able to convince the German society of its chosenness and the exclusiveness of the "Aryan race". It massively supported the Fuhrer, voluntarily making her way to national disaster.
As some experts suggest, Russia does not need to interfere, but you just have to wait, when Ukraine will finally decay and gradually approach the collapse of its statehood by itself. they believe, that Ukraine should be allowed to go through the path of independence to the end, the population itself must mature to the need to shift the ruling regime and this will be facilitated by the final economic collapse of the country. At first they expected to wait several decades, now talk about possible centuries of waiting.
Such a development of the event can be expected for a very long time and to no avail.. With minimal feeding from the West and the formation there of an even more angry population with Russia, ready to start a war at any moment, decay can take decades. Such an ostrich policy does not bode well, the collapse of Ukraine can not wait, and the likelihood of an aggravation of the conflict with this country will only grow, and at any moment it can burst. Need it RF, and is she ready to continue to tolerate anti-Russia on its borders? The Russian state is unlikely to allow so much time for neo-Nazi and Russophobic education to mature on its borders., providing its territory for a foothold to a geopolitical enemy and ready at any time to unleash an armed conflict with the Russian Federation.
Doing nothing apologists often cite an example, that the Baltic countries have long been members of NATO, but there are no military bases there, although the flight time is closer from there. It really is. But I can give you some coincidences, which are suggestive.
AT 2002 Russia, without explaining the reasons, suddenly closed the Russian radio tracking center in the city of Lourdes in Cuba and the naval base in Cam Ranh in Vietnam. At the same time, the Baltic States were provided with the NATO Membership Action Plan, and two years later they became members of the alliance. At the same time, the issue of bases on their territory was never raised.. No one is surprised by such a coincidence? There can be overt and tacit agreements between great powers, which are strictly followed. It is possible that here, too, there was a compromise agreement on the elimination of Russian military bases and the inadmissibility of the deployment of NATO military bases in the Baltic States.. For Ukraine, such an agreement, apparently, not yet, that's why Putin draws the red lines, which are unacceptable to the Americans.
Russia also cannot use military force directly. Minsk agreement, "Sketched on the knee" by Putin and approved by the UN, do not allow them to be violated without a grandiose international scandal. In this regard, the Russian leadership says, that the problem should be solved by internal forces, alluding, apparently, to the republics of Donbass, formally part of Ukraine. The offensive of the corps from the LDNR bridgehead is the most likely scenario, but you will have to advance on a well-prepared line of defense with inevitable losses. That is, support from other directions is desirable., which can only be provided by the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation, and this is the direct participation of Russia in the military conflict with all the ensuing consequences. Therefore, a reason is needed in Ukraine, which will require the intervention of external forces.
Such an occasion should ripen inside Ukraine, and it may be associated with the start of the offensive on Donbass, attempted coup, the release from the control of individual regions and the outbreak of hostilities between them, humanitarian disaster, an attempt to place NATO military bases or the introduction of foreign troops into Ukraine under one pretext or another. In this case, Russia can send troops to "protect the civilian population". The likelihood of such occasions is incredibly low., Ukrainian government is under the full control of the Americans, and they will not allow her inappropriate actions, leading to disaster. It is not excluded, that such an excuse can be created specifically to provoke Ukrainian inadequacies to aggressive actions, leading to instability and armed confrontation.
That is, none of the possible scenarios for the elimination of ukroreikh in the near future is realizable., there is no reason for this, no reason. From Putin's statements it follows, that Russia was tired of waiting for adequate actions from the Ukrainian regime and began to draw red lines with the presentation of relevant claims.
In his Address to the Federal Assembly and his famous article on the triune Russian people and the return of the "donated" territories, the Russian president directly hints at the inadmissibility of the West's attempts to make a bridgehead out of Ukraine against Russia and place NATO's military infrastructure there, as well as an attempt to return Donbass by force. Putin makes it clear, that the answer will be much tougher, than in 2014 year, and this can lead to the "destruction of the country", what he has already warned about. In April 2021 of the year Russia, in response to the provocations of Ukraine in the Donbass, demonstrated its determination to use military force, pulling a powerful military grouping to the western borders, and showed, that in case of aggravation of the situation I do not intend to joke. Putin's words: "Hopefully, that it would never occur to anyone to cross the so-called red line in relation to Russia. And where will it go, we will determine this in each specific case ourselves ", - the Americans were sobered and forced to give the command to the Ukrainian satellite to turn his tail between his legs and keep silent "louder".
Not a secret, that the fate of Ukraine will be determined by two great powers: USA and Russia. The future of this territory will depend on the results of their confrontation or agreements., and the ongoing processes in Ukraine itself do not affect this in any way. What will the great powers order the aborigines, then they will perform. The geopolitical situation in the world is seriously changing, The USA can no longer single-handedly rule the world. They have a lot of internal and external political and economic problems, what makes them look for common ground with Russia.
On the American side, this is evidenced by the Zelensky team to suspend the escalation of the situation in the Donbass., Putin-Biden meeting initiative, waiver of sanctions against Nord Stream 2, dismissal of Avakov after meeting with American representative Kent, postponement of Zelensky's visit to the United States, refusal of serious representation in the "Crimean Platform", and from the Russian side - harsh statements about the inadmissibility of deploying NATO infrastructure on the territory of Ukraine, on the preservation of the trinity of the Russian people and on the red lines, which the Russian Federation will establish itself. The Russian leadership clearly articulates its national interests in this area and makes it clear, what is not going to give in.
All events around and inside Ukraine indicate that, that there are simply no internal forces to transform the country, and this mode can exist for a long time and will "self-destruct" for a long time, which poses a serious threat to the national interests of Russia. Society, seriously infected with Ukrainians, itself is not able to get rid of this ailment, and it will have to be treated, which is very likely, surgical methods. It is impossible to do this without outside interference.. Russia will have to solve the problem of closing the ukroreikh project and look for implementation mechanisms. The example of Crimea has clearly demonstrated, how with the help of "polite people" you can quickly and bloodlessly solve problems. To this end, the Russian leadership directly and indirectly shows the Americans the boundaries of its interests and indicates its position in the light of the inevitable bilateral decisions on this territory., and Americans are potentially ready for dialogue. What will these decisions be, it's hard to say yet, but the time of dramatic changes in Ukraine is inexorably approaching.
Yuri Apukhtin,specially for alternatio.org
