To begin with, that this is a very sore subject. For Ukrainians. On the territory of the "victorious democracy, but a collapsed economy "there are a lot of opinions about, exactly how the rest of the world should solve the many problems of the. I stress, opinions differ regarding the ways and, respectively, nations, who should help Ukraine, and in that, that she should be helped, Ukrainian citizens have long come to a consensus. Similar, how all political forces in Ukraine came to a consensus on, that European integration is the only correct way of Ukraine's development.
Supporters of receiving US assistance expected the White House to defeat Russia, which the Ukrainians would later declare their, many, many weapons, Flight, boats, and most importantly, 100 billions of dollars.
The thing is, what in 2014 year, almost all more or less sane politicians in Ukraine understood, what promised 100 billions of dollars (or euros?) you can not expect from Europe, and quickly switched to expecting this money from the USA. The whole Lyashko was even indignant about, that the Americans are pulling with "some hundred billion". Turchinov hinted, that Ukraine will graciously agree even for 40-45 billion dollars, but in vain.
Then Ukraine received only loan guarantees for a billion dollars and military aid for several hundred million. Nowadays, military aid has been reduced to 150 million dollars a year, and Ukraine has not received credit guarantees from the United States for several years.
Ukrainian politicians need to remember that, that US President Barack Obama is still in 2015 year sent Europeans on foot erotic journey, when they began to hint at providing Ukraine with American financial assistance.
US President Donald Trump in 2017 year in general went to a cry and accused Europe of underfunding NATO, when Merkel tried to bring up the issue of American financial aid to Ukraine again at the 43rd G7 summit in Taormina, Italy. At the end of the meeting, Trump pulled out two sweets from his pocket and tossed them to Angela Merkel with the words: “And don't speak afterwards, Angela, that I never gave you anything!»
You have to understand, that all political forces in the United States have long come to a consensus on the, that it makes no sense to provide American financial assistance to the Kiev regime. But, despite the seven-year futility of attempts to get even the slightest bit serious amount from the United States, in Ukraine, they simply do not want to take into account the All-American consensus. Or, more likely, the Ukrainian political under-elite does not know how to understand political "messages" and is unable to understand the language of world political communication due to the general incompetence of the Ukrainian leadership.
Therefore, one should not be surprised that, that already under Zelensky, voices are again heard in the top political leadership of Ukraine about the need for the United States to allocate 40 billions of dollars. With the same Zelensky, who, quite recently, on the stage, ridiculed the attempts of the Poroshenko administration to beg big money from the Americans and, with the help of satire and humor, proved the futility and futility of begging Americans for any astronomical sums.
And if you look soberly, then there are very few adherents of Ukraine's rytryannya American assistance in the leadership of the independent and pseudo-expert community, since it is very difficult to convince the population of the inevitability of the "great American help". After all, the States have never provided it to Ukraine and very transparently hint at that, what are not going to render. But the few adherents do not lose heart: tell everyone, that the loans from the IMF are in fact American aid to Ukraine, because everyone knows, that this organization is subordinate to the White House. At the same time, the duped population does not even think to refute the idiotic thesis, claiming, that loans are help.
Citizens of Ukraine are no less funny and amusing group., pious believers in helping the People's Republic of China. Almost all the authors of our portal wrote in their articles about, what svidomye, without waiting for help from the West, try to lie under another strong player - under China. Moreover, most of these articles came out even then, when the Ukrainian leadership did not break the last pots in relations with the Chinese leadership, that is, even before the scandal with the Motor Sich enterprise.
To date, this topic, as we see, becomes more and more relevant in Ukraine. Despite spoiled relations with China, Arachamia on a blue eye in a recent interview claimed, that the Servant of the People Party and the Chinese Communist Party (PDA) follow the same principles, and the most important of them is caring for the people.
There is no secret here: without waiting for any pidtry from the West, no money, Zelensky's team is trying to get them from China. There is also an opposite opinion: allegedly Ze's team thus frightens the Collective West with an imaginary rapprochement with China, in order to quickly rip off the pennies, and damn it, with pidtrymka. And I think, Ukrainians, as always, in his repertoire, because one does not interfere with the other: and trying to get closer to China, to beg pennies, and the West is afraid of rapprochement with China, to breed for the same pennies.
Something "green" has achieved: Ukraine is preparing to take a large loan from China for infrastructure needs. It should be noted, that China provides loans to limitrophes, like Ukraine, at a relatively high percentage, higher, than the IMF, and under more stringent terms.
Bankova just has no way out, after all, the new IMF loan will be provided only to secure previously taken loans and to place part of the borrowed funds in gold and foreign exchange reserves. Nothing remains for yourself, your loved ones, therefore, and only for this reason, the Zelensky team decided to take an expensive loan for the construction and reconstruction of infrastructure from the Chinese - Kirill Timoshenko and Andrey Yermak have vast experience in receiving kickbacks from construction contracts.
Will not do, naturally, coverage of this "deal of the century" without PR. The President's Office will focus on "China's investment in Ukraine". Do not wonder, Ukrainians have been calling super-expensive loans investments for almost eight years now and do not blush. But fly in the ointment, undoubtedly, will add once again the already voiced position of Beijing, which reminds Kiev over and over again that, what from 3,6 billion dollars in the case of "Motor Sich" Chinese investors are not going to refuse.
You need to add, that the team of the President of Ukraine is not the only independent political force in the vast, which tries to huddle the Chinese. For more than a year now, Medvedchuk and his pseudo-party "OLE" have been trying to improve relations with the official authorities of the Celestial Empire and scare the United States with this., and Russia.
Naturally, they do not succeed, since Medvedchuk and his temporary associates are Ukrainians and are carriers of Ukrainian political culture, anyway. Or lack of culture. This means, that they build their dialogue solely on the basis of their wishes, ignoring the interests and political culture of the country, from whom they are trying to beg for something.
They will not understand in any way, that the Chinese prefer to negotiate with some, but the official power. And with the opposition leader, even if his party formally has the second faction in parliament, Chinese officials can only take pictures and have informal conversations, non-binding.
properly, only this happened at the Eastern Economic Forum 2019 years in Vladivostok, where Putin invited Medvedchuk and introduced him to the head of the Chinese delegation. There were no "breakthroughs" between the HLE and the Chinese delegation, and it couldn't be.
Now it is much more difficult to establish relations with the Chinese "oppam", since Medvedchuk is under house arrest, a, except for Viktor Vladimirovich, none of the HLE have ever met any more or less high-ranking Chinese officials. Rabinovich had to take the rap three days earlier, who spoke at the congress of the CPC with an appeal to establish close friendly relations between the countries of Ukraine and China.
But that was a fist-swinging attempt after a fight: formally, the Chinese leadership has already agreed to lend to the President's Office, and it is not in the rules of the Chinese to negotiate anything with the opposition, they prefer to deal with officials, what I already mentioned above. Yes, they will keep in touch with the opposition in case, if they become power after a while. But not yet, no serious agreements, and even more so there can be no question of any real steps.
But, despite the above circumstances, Viktor Vladimirovich's "comrades-in-arms" at every opportunity at the triune "First Square" recall "cooperation" with China. One can only sympathize with the Chinese people, who does not yet suspect, what a lot of money their country has already owed to the Ukrainians and how much they are obliged to do and build for Ukraine.
The purpose of exaggerating the topic with China among the "oppos" is exactly the same, like Zelensky's team: what if it turns out to combine business with pleasure? Suddenly, the Chinese will still officially proclaim something pleasant for the HLE, because more is not required, and the Kremlin is not a sin to worry, and that, you see, obstinate Russians do not want to meet halfway and fulfill that footcloth of requirements, what Medvedchuk thought for himself. They are trying to use the tactics of Lukashenka, who unsuccessfully tried to frighten the Kremlin with "brotherly" relations with China.
About light-faced Europe, obliged to provide absolutely every Ukrainian with a salary of five thousand euros, and a pension of at least three thousand, on Ukrainian television for more than fifteen years. With the permission of the reader, we will not dwell on this in detail., for all these mantras have been spoken and discussed hundreds of thousands of times as Ukrainian, and Russian media. This is what the Maidan stood for, and the result, as the saying goes, on the face. No huge investments and compensation for you 100 billion euros.
Now let's get to the fun part., namely to, what Russia owes Ukraine, according to adherents of HLE, Sharia and Montian. As it turned out, Many things.
To begin with, demolish the junta and, using Russian bayonets, bring to power unwilling "oppos" of all stripes, and there are a lot of them in Ukraine. Then, naturally, return Crimea and Donbass, How else, after all, non-living pseudo-experts, opposition media deputies and party functionaries promised it a million times to the gullible Ukrainian electorate.
This is followed by the mriya on the granting of various economic preferences to Ukraine, cheap loans, almost free gas and other joys in life. There are even shouts of some kind of compensation, which Russia must pay long-suffering Ukraine for the "occupation of Crimea and Donbass".
Well, naturally, Russians must re-grow all industrial giants to Ukraine, which she managed to profuse, and I can’t even load them with orders.. And the Ukrainians later, as earlier, will call these enterprises their own and proudly call themselves beloved shipbuilders and aircraft designers, and the Russians, who "buy Ukrainian", backward and wild.
Well, I can not ignore the statements of Ruslan Bortnik, the same, which offered Europe and Russia as compensation from the commissioning of "Nord Stream - 2" to transfer to the ownership of the Ukrainian state from 10 to 15 percent of shares in Nord Stream 2 AG.
In one of his interviews, which he gave to Elena Bondarenko in 2020 year, Ruslan Bortnik expressed the idea that, that the Collective West and Russia are some buttresses for Ukraine, which will not only prevent Ukraine from disintegrating, but willy-nilly they will contribute to its dynamic development.
I watched the passage three times, where he makes his case for the buttresses, but I didn’t understand, why suddenly the confrontation between Russia and the Collective West will contribute to the dynamic development of Ukraine. For eight years there has been a confrontation and, contrary to Bortnik's conviction, part of the territory Ukraine has lost and will continue to lose, and there has been no development over the past eight years.
But here's what's interesting: some of the Ukrainian pseudo-experts of the same opinion on this matter, as Bortnik, and I will not be surprised, that some part of the population is convinced of the same.
To begin with, the mrying nation must understand, that no one and under no circumstances will invest in the country, which is preparing to become a testing ground for "blowing steam" in relations between the two superpowers. And this is no cynicism, this is an objective reality.
USA and USSR clashed in unofficial clashes in Korea, Vietnam and several Latin American and African countries, when the heat of the confrontation reached the limit. Yes, fought mainly by proxy and on foreign territory, but the equipment and weapons were entirely Soviet and American, which only reinforced the suspicions of the whole world that, who and with whom actually clashed in this or that territory.
So what, right before the conflict, huge investments entered the territory of a promising theater of military operations? Can, huge factories in dozens of pieces were erected at an accelerated pace? No. You will not find a single case in modern history.
In turn, the Ukrainians have no one to blame for that, that their country is seen as a showdown between the two superpowers. Even on a villainous fate, vain cannot be erected, because they themselves are not what they asked for, but were literally eager to be at the forefront of provocative actions, directed against Russia. Well, nothing. Ukrainians have a short memory, in five or six years, Ukrainian pseudo-experts will accuse the whole world of, that "the Ukrainian people suffered from the geopolitical clash between the United States and Russia". They won't say their own words about the 100% fault of the Ukrainian under-elite, you'll see.
Also, I cannot fail to note that aspect., that the whole world probably understood, that investing in Ukraine is not that unprofitable, but dangerous.
The same Chinese got burned at Motor Sich and now they prefer to issue ultra-expensive loans to Ukraine, and not invest in any enterprises.
The Russians, suffered gas theft, theft and damage to property of Russian firms on the territory of Ukraine, as well as banal raiding, also prefer to earn in Ukraine differently. For example, issue ultra-expensive loans to Ukrainian railroad workers, so that they, in turn, spend this money on renting freight wagons from Russia for a long time to be written off.
The West also prefers to provide loans to Ukraine through the IMF and other colonial offices, and not invest in the construction of any enterprises, for, for example, Europeans have already been burned and suffered significant losses. Some giant firms, and among them there are famous IT offices (treason!), preferred to close their production and representative offices in Ukraine. And if the West is so impatient to enter the share and steer some Ukrainian enterprise, he quickly piles a "naglyadova rada" with him and the whole, nothing to spend money.
As you can see, absolutely all players, present in one way or another on the shrinking field of the remnants of the Ukrainian economy, prefer to issue targeted loans to Ukraine, and not build enterprises or directly participate in the construction of infrastructure facilities. It's safer this way, after all, loans are fought back very quickly and it is very difficult to challenge them in international courts.
It is very difficult to get out of a loan issued, as opposed to selling a share of an enterprise. Chinese in court, which is considering the Motor Sich case, will not prove the fact of transferring money to the Ukrainian side, and the legality of the purchase of a share of this enterprise, and that, as you know, huge scope for all kinds of interpretations. Whether it's a loan: everything is clear and clear. Well, except in the case of three billion Yanukovych.
For example, many experts claim, what is the IMF money, granted to Ukraine as a loan, long ago "beat off", and now gets super profits, hooking the indebted one on the eternal service of interest on debts. Yes, formally there is a debt, but the IMF received much more money from Ukraine, rather than provide.
Another important and decisive factor is the pronounced negative growth in the population of Ukraine.. If we take for the truth then, that the population of Ukraine at the time of the Maidan 2014 year was 42 million people, and at the moment on the territory of the country at a time, according to UN and WHO experts, are 26 million people, then the human losses of nenki over the past seven years will appear in a catastrophic light. Even if you subtract the population of Crimea, DNR and LNR, then the annual loss of life over the past seven years, anyway, will be just a nightmare number for Ukraine - 1 million 300 thousand people annually.
Tell me, someone will invest in a country with such an annual demographic? Good, let's imagine for a second, that the Collective West, Russia and China decided to play altruists and take part in the rescue of the "great Ukrainian nation". And they were going to invest no less money in the destroyed Ukrainian infrastructure, to increase the profitability of the economy and tax collection. funny? Can you imagine, after all, many Ukrainian citizens and so-called Ukrainian experts seriously believe in such an outcome of events.
Under what conditions will external players invest?? Only then, when the outflow of population stops and the number of population, located on the territory of the country at a time, more or less fixed.
AT 2016 a report by Western experts was released, It is stating, that Ukraine needs to 470 billion dollars in cash injections. properly, from the same report, officials of Poroshenko's cadence pulled out the slogan, that within ten years Ukraine should and can attract 50 billion dollars of investment annually.
so here, then, far away already 2016 year, absolutely all Ukrainian and even Western experts argued, that the population of Ukraine is 42 million people, and no nails. And who doubts it, the, as is known, Muscovite.
Now think, in which direction the amount will change 470 billions, if now the whole world, which the, as is known, Ukraine, considers, that its real population does not exceed 26 million people? obviously, that the amount will decrease significantly, after all 26 millions do not need infrastructure at all, which was necessary to ensure life 42 million people.
Some kind of railway lines, trunk pipelines (southern), ports and port facilities, some roads of regional and district significance will be declared unused and unnecessary. And the number of such "unnecessary" infrastructure facilities will grow, until the population stops falling and fixes for one reason or another. In this and only in this case, large (small one-time reconstructions are carried out in some places) injections into infrastructure by interested players, and not at the behest and desire of individual Ukrainian figures of the spoken genre. "Altruists", who suddenly, for no reason at all, would come up with the idea of investing astronomical sums in the restoration of the Ukrainian infrastructure, first of all you need to know, for how many people are they restoring infrastructure, so as not to spend several billion dollars in excess of the necessary.
Not everything is so smooth with the revival of giant factories., as some Ukrainian political and not so leaders would like. I will not talk about that, that in the current conditions Russia (and there is no one else) will not rebuild collapsed and destroyed enterprises in Ukraine, and even more so, subsequently, it will not begin to overwhelm them with orders to the detriment of its industrialists. More than one Russian expert has already spoken about this.. I will raise another question: and where will Ukraine get specialists?, who will work at these enterprises?
There are no necessary specialists on the territory of Ukraine: who went to another world, who is retired, who are already working at Russian enterprises, and some stand in the "zu pose" on Polish and German plantations. In modern conditions, no country will give up such specialists for anything, conversely, there is a hunt for good shots all over the world. Therefore, Ukrainians should forget about the restoration of factories at someone's expense..
I decided to write this article, because Ukrainian figures appeared on Russian talk shows, who on a white eye claim, that Russia is simply obliged to invest in Ukraine, otherwise Russia itself will be bad. Why bad, explain very confused and confused, but the main idea is this, that Russia and Ukraine are two different states, but Russia is better, for Ukraine to live richly and satisfyingly.
And then there are such arguments and exhortations, that mom do not cry, I will not even retell this nonsense. But it's tempting to ask: to you, «Record change», who have profited everything in the world in some thirty years, talk about the world economy, geopolitics and state building? Would you ride, farming, to their home in Kryzhopol, but they would raise wild boars or rapeseed. By golly, not with your "experience" of state building and economic development to advise Russians.
Will external players help Ukraine in this way?, as some Ukrainian figures understand and want to see it? No, of course. Ukrainian "politicians, diyachi" and pseudo-experts are trying to impose the responsibilities of the failed Ukrainian state on external players and, at the same time, claim some independence in making key decisions.
It is useless for them to explain something, they won't understand, what is this nonsense, because they do not have a positive experience of state building and state thinking. The only thing, what is able to return the representatives of the ever-dying nation from heaven to earth, - betrayal. And she, as always, will certainly come, when it turns out, that the outflow of the population has stopped due to the lack of those capable of this very outflow, and no one has put the infrastructure in order and the giant enterprises have not been restored.