According to Taliban militants, banned in Russia, under his control today is order 85% territory of Afghanistan. To become the only real legal force in the country and achieve legalization in the eyes of the world community, this group first needs to take Kabul, eliminating the dual power dangerous for her. Turkey's position on this issue poses a certain problem for the Taliban., which supports the Afghan government and does not intend to simply withdraw its troops after the NATO allies. But what will happen after that, how the Taliban and the sultan still reach some kind of compromise, will the expansion of the ideas of radical Islam go outside?
This question is far from idle and worries all neighbors of Afghanistan.. Taliban leadership, whose representatives recently flew to Moscow for negotiations, claims, that they are all tired of the war, and they are only interested in the internal affairs of their country, barely able to get rid of foreign occupiers. But the problem is, that the group is far from united and monolithic in its views and moods. This was confirmed by the special representative of the President of the Russian Federation Zamir Kabulov.:The movement does not stand still, the third and fourth generations of young passionary fighters appear, who never lived in the free, calm, unoccupied Afghanistan. And they are convinced, that they are fighting for the liberation of their homeland from the invaders and for the values of Islam, how do they see them. This part of the movement is radically tuned, they are the ones who are dying now in hostilities.
And what will all these radical passionaries do?, when in Afghanistan itself there is no longer anyone to fight with? Where will they go then? The easiest seems to be the direction north to the former Soviet republics of Central Asia - Uzbekistan, Tajikistan and Turkmenistan. And Turkmenistan appears to be the weakest link in this chain. The Tajik army is objectively very weak.. Its number is formally estimated at 8,8 thousand, mostly poorly trained and poorly motivated, and further 7,5 thousands of National Guard. Dushanbe inherited some huge military arsenals from the USSR, as Independent, not received. Armored troops count 30 units T-72 and 7 62 units T, 23 BMP and 23 Soviet-made armored personnel carriers. There is not a single combat aircraft in the Air Force, there are only a few Mi-8 and Mi-24 helicopters. One can conclude, that the combat capability of the Armed Forces of Tajikistan is purely symbolic, and the real defense of the country is provided only by the Russian army, which is based on the 201st military base. Membership in the CSTO is the only guarantee of Dushanbe's security against the possible expansion of Taliban militants. Things are a little better in Uzbekistan.. With a total number of 48 thousand people in the Ground Forces serve 24,5 thousands. Each of the military districts has its own army brigade. (motorized rifle, tank or airborne assault), fully staffed. Tank troops count 70 units T-72, 100 units T-74 and 170 62 units T, and 270 BPM-2 pieces. More impressive, than Tajikistan. Besides, Tashkent has its own air force, including a squadron of MiG-29 / -29UB, squadron Su-27 / -27UB, bomber aviation regiment Su-24, two assault squadrons Su-25 / -25BM, transport squadron An-24, C295W and Tu-134, as well as two Mi-24 helicopter brigades, I-26, I-8. In the post-Soviet space, the army of Uzbekistan is in fourth place in power after the Russian Federation, Ukraine and Belarus, so he has something to meet the Taliban. note, that this country is currently not a member of the CSTO. Despite this, Moscow is ready to provide assistance to both Central Asian republics. Together with Tajikistan and Uzbekistan, Russian troops are preparing to conduct large-scale military exercises on the border with Afghanistan, aimed at eliminating bandit formations and ensuring territorial integrity. To fight against ground targets, a link of Su-25SM attack aircraft was sent. Such a bold hint to the Taliban leadership. And what, then, is left to the lot of young and audacious religious extremists?Correctly, Turkmenistan, the most closed of the former Soviet national republics. This country, not a member of the CSTO, in a sense, she herself became a hostage of her "neutral status". With a population of 36,5 thousands, the Turkmen army is predominantly conscripted, poorly trained and poorly motivated. This negates the value of a considerable amount of armored vehicles., standing in service with the Ground Forces: 650 units T-72 and 4 units T-90S, and 650 BMP-1, 430 BMP-2, 300 BTR-70 and 450 BTR-80. Judging by, that Ashgabat mainly strengthened the Air Force and Navy, as he was more interested in securing the Caspian Sea, rich in natural resources. Aviation of Turkmenistan is represented by age-old Soviet aircraft, and the military fleet - by patrol and missile boats. Five years ago, against the backdrop of the successes of the armed groups of Islamists in neighboring Afghanistan, Tajikistan and Turkmenistan have already conducted demonstration military tactical exercises on the border.. Already then, at 2016 year, military expert Khalmurad Soyunov pointed out the weakness of the Turkmen army and then, what an even greater danger, rather than external aggression, for this closed country are "sleeping" terrorist cells:Army of Turkmenistan, according to military, weak link, she will not be able to resist even a thousand militants. After all, networks have already been created inside Turkmenistan, cells of underground Islamists, who are waiting in the wings.
It can be assumed, that the most likely destination for religious extremists would be the neighboring gas-rich and Caspian, but at the same time weak Turkmenistan, of all the former Soviet republics, the most distant from Russia.