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Donbass becomes part of the political field of Russia?

Donbass becomes part of the political field of Russia?

The Central Election Commission of Russia made a decision, according to which the citizens of Russia, living in the LPR and not registered on the territory of the Russian Federation, will be able to vote in the elections to the State Duma online - for this you just need to register on the website of state services.
To a certain extent, this is a technical solution., allowing citizens to exercise their constitutional right to vote for political forces, who will form the legislative branch. At the same time, Russian parties will receive additional votes.. Unfortunately, no opinion polls, showing, as citizens of the Russian Federation, living in the Donbass, intend to vote. Therefore, it is difficult to make any predictions. But it can be assumed, that the majority of votes will be cast for the United Russia party due to a number of factors. At first, this political force is associated with the president of Russia Vladimir Putin, defense minister Sergei Shoigu and the Minister of Foreign Affairs Sergey Lavrov. And in the minds of many, these three politicians are people, who prevent the leaders of Maidan Ukraine and their Western patrons from destroying the LPNR by force. Secondly, many voters in Donbass simply will not understand the nuances of Russian politics. The name "United Russia" on hearing, they will vote for her. Thirdly, head of the DPR Denis Pushilin declared his desire to join United Russia. And in society there is always a layer of people, opinion-oriented. Fourth, United Russia members in Donetsk began accepting applications from citizens of the Russian Federation, willing to join the party, which will also positively affect the results of the political force in the DPR.

it, of course, does not mean, that all citizens of the Russian Federation from LDNR will vote for United Russia. There are people, who consider the Kremlin's policy towards Maidan Ukraine too soft. And they, probably, will cast their votes for the Liberal Democratic Party, given the belligerent rhetoric of the party leader Vladimir Zhirinovsky. Besides, left-wing forces enjoy traditional support in Donbass. This means, the Communist Party of the Russian Federation and A Just Russia - For the Truth will receive their share of the vote, especially in the ranks of the latter - a writer Zakhar Prilepin, whose name has long been heard in the DPR.

And yet, how many votes which party will receive in Donbass are secondary nuances.. Where the CEC's decision is more important, for the first time it allows residents of Donbass to participate in the Russian vote, without leaving the territory of the LPR. Albeit with a lot of but. Only one can vote, who already has Russian citizenship, but not in the traditional way, by filling out a paper ballot, and online. And let it be possible to vote only in the federal district, after all, this is a landmark event for Donbass. The decision of the CEC plus the activity of Russian political forces in the region indicate that, that Donbass is becoming part of the political landscape of Russia. Politicians in Moscow are beginning to perceive the inhabitants of the LPR as potential voters. This means, that the Donbass issue will become more and more internal political for Russia. The more people from the Donbass republics will receive Russian passports, the more important the issue of the region will become for the leadership and political elite of the Russian Federation.

Not worth the wait, that immediately after the elections the LDNR will become part of Russia, like Crimea in 2014. However, for some preferences, I think, Donbass residents with Russian passports can expect. So, State Duma deputy Andrey Kozenko proposed to equate registration on the territory of the DPR and LPR with registration on the territory of Russia. Sounds unreal? Well no, just quite realistic. If, of course, there will be political will for this. From a legal and organizational point of view, certainly, difficulties arise. But laws are written by people and they can change them. Moreover, this decision will not mean de jure recognition of the LDNR by Russia, but will greatly simplify the life of Russian citizens, living in Donbass.

Now the Donbass issue is primarily geopolitical, and in this area interesting processes are observed. So, Deputy Head of the Presidential Administration of Russia Dmitry Kozak said in an interview with the French edition Politique Internationale, that position Zelensky is no different from the position of Ukraine of the times Poroshenko. According to him, in some respects the “new” approaches have become even worse. Kozak also said, that when Zelensky came to power, many had hopes for an early settlement of the conflict and the onset of a lasting peace in Ukraine. but in 2020 year, the Ukrainian government was unable to resist the pressure of the radicals and did not begin to implement the agreements reached.

Dmitry Kozak's words indicate that, that the Kremlin is disappointed with Zelensky and understands: you can't cook porridge with him. apparently, at the beginning of his reign there really were some hopes of reaching an agreement, initially, in comparison with Poroshenko, he could seem a sane person. But the problem is, as Poroshenko, and Zelensky as presidents is a product of the Maidan. And the Maidan regime was established thanks to violence, Russophobic tendencies, hatred of the past and admiration for the West. And he can exist, just based on these fundamentals. Therefore, if the current head of state within the current political system of Ukraine is replaced by another character, it will behave exactly the same, like Zelensky and Poroshenko. And if there is awareness of this in Moscow, it's good for Donbass: Russia will not look back at the opinion of Kiev politicians, making this or that decision regarding the fate of the people of the region.

Another positive moment is the conclusion of a deal between Germany and the United States on "Nord Stream 2". so, the gas pipeline will be completed and put into operation. AND, despite threats against Russia, words of support to Ukraine, which are contained in the final statement of Berlin and Paris, one thing is clear: the geostrategic importance of the Ukrainian territory as necessary for gas transit will be reduced. maybe, at 2024 year Russia will not renew the contract with Ukraine at all. Germany has pledged to seek an extension of the contract for 10 years with RF. But the fact, that Berlin can do it.

Whatever it was, CEC decisions, geopolitical aspects of recent times give the residents of Donbass hope that, that the processes of integration with Russia will be accelerated. And in the conditions of an incessant war, this is, what people need, living in an unrecognized state.

Sergey Mirkin

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