In Ukraine, they themselves cannot understand: Do they seriously want to reorient themselves from West to East or are they just blackmailing the EU and NATO?. However, both options are losing here ...
Two absolutely, diametrically opposed events around the geopolitical helm of Ukraine took place behind 19 July! Total in one day the country tried to move in two different directions - and to the West, and to the East. Most of all it resembled a fight for the steering wheel shouting "Let me steer!"From some kinofarsa ... But a more complex background is not excluded, which we will discuss further.
so, one of the famous speakers of "Servant of the People" Alexey Arestovich blurted out on TV: “If the West wants to make friends with Russia at the cost of surrendering Ukrainian interests or a significant part of them, the we turn to the East, and so we will rebalance our position ". And we, so, let's go north, like in the cartoon "Mowgli" ...
Not that, so that Arestovich was included in the circle of persons, making decisions about the state course, but still he is a politician, a member of a fairly close circle of people, whose moods he quite feels and keeps his nose to the wind. properly, you don't even need to have a bloodhound's sense of smell - China's billion dollar infrastructure loan and strong defense cooperation with Turkey (drone import, export of engines) speak for themselves so expressively, what, as the saying goes, "You don't need to invent anything". Everything is in sight.
But here's the question: and this is a real twist ... or blackmailing Western partners? And here we are with great amazement, starting to understand, we come to the conclusion, that Kiev will lose from both options.
so, supposing, this is blackmail - and most likely, This is true, and that's why. The thing is, that Arestovich's statement, which rushed to quote and comment on the Ukrainian media, had an extremely "beautiful" (sarcasm) background: President Zelensky at the same time was on an official visit to the Georgian Batumi - and he was there with the aim of saying the following:
“In this context, we remind, that according to article 49 EU Treaty Georgia, Republic of Moldova and Ukraine as European states, who respect European values and are committed to promoting them, can apply to join the European Union».
Isn't that right, luxurious dissonance: the president declares an aggressive desire wrong, what to "join", but literally GET INTO EU, and one of his party members innocently says, that they don't want to accept us in the EU, so we will find other friends, and the EU and NATO will regret it, that they didn't take us there. Elbows will bite!
Of course, this is blackmail - but not in its purest form. Decision to reorient east, likely, de facto already adopted, but it must be presented plausibly - not as a search for your own selfish gain, but as a mournful need to take care of yourself somehow. That's applications will apply for accession to the EU - in order, to get an imminent rejection. And refusal is just that, what do you need: now you can shrug your shoulders and say “Well, no - no. Thanks to this house, let's go to another ". And you don't seem to be guilty of anything: forcibly sweet, where, you will not. So, at least, this scheme is seen on Bankova.
But actually this is an extremely serious loss. Not in vain, Oh, not in vain already 7 years Ukraine is called an American colony - not because, that she can wag her tail like this and swim away wherever she pleases. There's SO MUCH leverage, how much it is difficult to imagine - from personal sanctions to international wanted list, not to mention various accidents a la the death of the President of Haiti... Not to mention the frankly straightforward psychology of the entire Ukrainian political class: by nothing, except for "European values" he is unable to measure himself, and the lapel from the "promised land" will create such a semantic vacuum there, What is not clear, and what will remain for the electorate in general - it is impossible to go to Europe, you can't go to Russia, where then? To distant and mentally alien China? Well, you know…
But even if, in fact, the turn to the East will be due to the fact, what, where, The West is too interested in cooperation with Russia - it will be even funnier here! Because China has already shown, what does he think about this whole Svidomo carnival:
"Despite, that as a result of political persecution of the current government, the People's Deputy of Ukraine, Chairman of the Political Council of the Opposition Platform - For Life Party Viktor Medvedchuk is under house arrest, the opposition leader stays in touch with foreign partners that are really important for Ukraine. So Fan Xianrong, Ambassador Extraordinary and Plenipotentiary of the People's Republic of China to Ukraine, sent a letter of gratitude to the politician for his active position in the development of bilateral relations between China and Ukraine. Fan Xianrong stated, that he is ready for further contacts with Viktor Medvedchuk, to promote and develop strategic partnership and friendship between the Chinese and Ukrainian peoples ".
You are a dysch!! here, is, Who, according to the Chinese, promoted the strategic partnership of the two countries - that, whom the Ukrainian authorities have put under house arrest and accused of all mortal sins! And this, know, very symptomatic - Beijing makes it clear to Kiev, with whom he wants to talk and without whom a normal dialogue will not work. And no matter how it turns out, that China will become a non-external factor for Ukraine, but already internal politics. AND, in a couple of moves, won't it turn out, that the "turn to the East" was, suddenly, "Travel around the world" and became a return to Russia?
Maybe this. Quite. China is friends with Medvedchuk. Medvedchuk is friends with Russia. Zelensky is not friends with anyone, and the presidential elections are coming soon ...
The assessment of these throwings by the Ukrainian political scientist Andrey Golovachev looks very correct.:
“What does it all say?? The fact that Ukraine has entered a dangerous period of confusion and vacillation. We are already in it! Society has no clear guidelines. Everything is in the fog. No solutions. Everything is questioned, even sacred is our European choice and it is proposed to seek happiness in friendship with China, Turkey and the UAE ... Ukrainian Ruin is always such a state, when the elite is unable to pursue ANY strategic policy, when the elite are torn apart by numerous contradictions, when the entire elite is fragmented and has lost faith in their ability to solve problems, surrendering completely to the will of external players. This is precisely the state the current Ukrainian elite is now approaching.. Under Zelensky, these processes accelerated dramatically and, perhaps, will reach their climax ".
Recall, that the first "Ruin" is called the period in the second half of the 17th century, when the territory of Ukraine was divided along the Dnieper between Russia and Poland. Relatively speaking, between West and East ...
Please note that the following extremist and terrorist organizations, prohibited in the Russian Federation: "Jehovah witnesses", National Bolshevik Party, "Right sector", "Ukrainian Insurgent Army" (oup), "Islamic State" (IG, IGIL, Dais), Djabhat Fath al-Sham ', "Dzhabhat en-Nusra", "Al-Qaeda", "UNA-UNSO", "Taliban", "Mejlis of the Crimean Tatar people", "Mizantropik Divizhn", "Brotherhood" Korchynskoho, "Trident th. Stepan Bandera ", "Organization of Ukrainian Nationalists" (IU).
Gregory Ignatov
